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Tropical Cyclone 199718
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
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Tropical Cyclone 199718 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS22 PGTW 970109 16:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091623Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF 15.6S2 92.3E4 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091430Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S3 92.3E4. THE
SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED BY ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WIND DATA
INDICATE GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 101630Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970111 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 18.2S1 92.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 92.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.0S0 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.9S9 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.8S0 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.6S9 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 18.4S3 92.1E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (TC 18S) HAS FORMED IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 102330Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS CORRESPONDS TO DVORAK T2.0. CURRENT
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALLER THAN
AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THEN
INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD, THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24
HOURS. THE MOTION OF TC 18S IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE
CIRCULATION OF TC 12P (PHIL) WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
TO THE WEST OF TC 18S. THIS INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 101623Z JAN
97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 101630 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970111 15:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 19.0S0 91.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 660 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 91.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.5S5 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.1S3 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 20.5S7 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 21.0S3 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 19.1S1 91.2E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM TO THE EAST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL). TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS
EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS DIRECTLY
WITH TC 12P (PHIL). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM; HOWEVER, LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
FROM TC 12P (PHIL) IS EXPECTED TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION
RATE OF 18S. THEREFORE, EXPECT A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE
INTENSIFICATION RATE OF APPROXIMATELY 0.5 T NUMBER PER
DAY. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON A 110342Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND 121500Z9
(DTG 121351Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(PHIL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATIONS: SHOULD BE 12P (PHIL) ON LINE 7 IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970112 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 20.1S3 90.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 90.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.8S0 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.3S6 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 21.7S0 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 22.5S9 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 20.3S5 89.9E6
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 130300Z7
(DTG 130151Z1). TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (TC 18S) IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 112330Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 18S HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF TC 12P (PHIL). PHIL HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 18S
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME COURSE AND SPEED
TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO RESUME
INTENSIFYING AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970112 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 22.9S3 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 25.7S4 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 28.3S3 88.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 30.8S1 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 23.6S1 88.5E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER AND A HIGHER UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND
131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970113 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 005 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- 23.7S2 85.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 85.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 25.7S4 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 28.0S0 82.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 24.2S8 85.2E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (TC 18S) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON
121714Z SATELLITE SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND 130030Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT WARNING INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF 121714Z SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND A 122330Z SATELLITE-DERIVED
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE
SAME SCATTEROMETRY DATA. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO A WEAKENED PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND ONLY
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG
131351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970113 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- 25.5S2 82.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S2 82.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 26.9S7 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 25.8S5 82.2E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SU
RFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICA
L CYCLONE OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT W
AVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
|
Document: 199718.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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