[Index]
Tropical Cyclone 199727
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone 199727 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 970218 07:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180651Z FEB 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S6
111.1E4 TO 19.1S1 115.2E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
180530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S4 112.6E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA
AND NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE
IN ORGANIZATION. A CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS GETTING CLOSER TO AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS SEEMS LIKELY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 190700Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970219 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 16.2S9 113.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 113.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 16.8S5 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 17.5S3 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 18.4S3 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 19.1S1 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 16.3S0 114.1E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEAST AT
05 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 21 NM EAST OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH LIGHT EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR, AND
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG
191351Z0) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9). THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 180651Z FEB
97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 180700).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970219 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 16.9S6 113.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 113.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 17.5S3 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 18.2S1 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 18.8S7 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 19.6S6 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 17.1S9 113.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TC 27S) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS. THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ANALYSIS.
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALLER THAN
AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS
FORECAST TO GENERALLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN
STEERING FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 27S IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 09 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARLETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970220 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- 17.8S6 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 18.4S3 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 19.5S5 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 20.6S8 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 21.7S0 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 23.0S5 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION 18.0S9 115.3E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INTENSIFICATION IS BEING INHIBITED BY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. JTWC WILL ISSUE
WARNINGS EVERY SIX HOURS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5),
201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2), 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8) AND
210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970220 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- 18.0S9 115.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 115.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.9S8 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 19.9S9 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 21.0S3 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 21.7S0 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 22.3S7 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION 18.2S1 115.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS.
INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES TO BE INHIBITED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WIND SHEER, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH TO THE EAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG
201351Z2), 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8), 210300Z6 (DTG
210151Z0) AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970220 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- 18.1S0 115.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 115.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 18.6S5 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 19.5S5 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 20.3S5 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 21.1S4 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 22.5S9 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION 18.2S1 115.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 03 KNOTS.
LAST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED AWAY TO THE WEST, BUT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP NEAR EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. TC 27S TRACK FORECAST IS INFLUENCED BY
DOMINANT ANTICYCLONE OVER AUSTRALIA. LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
HINDERS INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0), 210300Z6 (DTG
210153Z2), 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8) AND 211500Z9 (DTG
211353Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 26P WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970220 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 115.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 115.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 19.1S1 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 20.1S3 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 21.0S3 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 21.9S2 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 23.6S1 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION 18.7S6 115.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 27S DOGGEDLY FIGHTING
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST AGAINST MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM LEVEL UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. TC 27S SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT NEARS THE ANTICYCLONE OVER
AUSTRALIA. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2),
210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8), 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5) AND
212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970221 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- 18.6S5 115.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 115.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 19.5S5 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 20.3S5 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 21.1S4 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 21.8S1 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 23.3S8 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION 18.8S7 115.9E6
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6), 211500Z9 (DTG
211351Z3), 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9) AND 220300Z7 (DTG
220151Z1). TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. INTENSITY ESTIMATE DERIVED FROM
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SCATTEROMETER
PASS AT 201508Z. INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES TO BE
HINDERED BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
WEAKER SHEAR PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS
14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
warning 008 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970221 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- 19.1S1 115.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 115.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 19.8S8 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 20.4S6 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 21.0S3 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 21.8S1 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 23.7S2 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION 19.3S3 115.7E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TC 27S) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 211255Z SURFACE WIND REPORTS, COURTESY OF BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, PERTH, AS WELL AS 211130Z INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE SAME
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 27S HAS BEGUN MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS TC
27S REMAINS IN STEERING FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE TC 27S
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CAPE AREA OF AUSTRALIA AS A
RESULT OF WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS TC 27S NEARS
THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9),
220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1), 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7), AND
221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970221 21:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- 19.5S5 115.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 115.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 20.4S6 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 21.3S6 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 22.3S7 113.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 23.3S8 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 25.6S3 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION 19.7S7 115.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TC 27S) CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 211730Z INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 27S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE A GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE IT NEARS THE
NORTHWEST CAPE OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
25S (KARLETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1),
220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7), 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4), AND
222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0). THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).
NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN, PEARL
HARBOR HI UNDER THE SAME MANOP HEADER (WTXS32 PGTW).
JUSTIFICATION: MESSAGE CORRECTED FOR TC 27S WARNING
TIMES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970222 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z4 --- 19.4S4 114.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 114.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 20.3S5 113.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 21.1S4 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 22.1S5 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 23.1S6 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 24.7S3 111.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION 19.6S6 114.5E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. POSITION BASED ON 212330Z1 METSAT
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEYOND THE 48-HR
POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7), 221500Z0 (DTG
221351Z4), 222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2).
THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 12 FEET. AJTWC
NAVPACMETOCCEN SENDS. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARLETTE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970222 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- 19.5S5 113.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 113.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 20.0S2 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.8S0 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.9S2 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.0S5 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 24.6S2 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION 19.6S6 113.7E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. POSITION BASED ON 220530Z METSAT VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ALL
CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF THE CENTER. TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER THE
24-HR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4),
222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0), 230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2) AND 230900Z4
(DTG 230751Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FT.
AJTWC NAVPACMETOCCEN SENDS. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARLETTE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
warnings 013 to 020 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970225 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- 23.8S3 108.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 108.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 25.0S7 107.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION 24.1S7 108.5E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S HAS DECREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND HAS COMPLETELY LOST ITS VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. AJTWC NAVPACMETOCCEN SENDS.//
|
Document: 199727.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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