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Tropical Cyclone CYRIL
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
Tropical Cyclone Cyril 
WTPS21 PGTW 961122 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 221451Z NOV 96//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA
SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S2
159.8E3 TO 12.7S0 162.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 221200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 159.9E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
BOTH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS JUST SOUTH OF GUADALCANAL AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM THE SOLOMONS AT 221200Z ALSO
SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT SAN CRISTOBAL IN THE SOLOMONS AS OF 221200Z.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ARE PRESENT ALOFT. THE LEVEL OF CONVECTION WAS
INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 231500Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961123 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- 13.3S7 160.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 160.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 15.7S3 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 18.3S2 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 21.2S5 162.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 23.7S2 164.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION 13.9S3  160.8E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT
HAS REACHED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON 230530Z3
IMAGERY ANALYSIS (DVORAK T2.5). THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NEAR 48 HOURS IT MAY
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING STEERING
FLOW FROM MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1) AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9).
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 221451Z NOV 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 221500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z1 IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961123 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- 15.6S2 161.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 161.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 17.9S7 161.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 20.1S3 161.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 22.0S4 162.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 23.2S7 164.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION 16.2S9  161.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW
CALEDONIA AND TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9) AND 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 23/1800Z4 IS 12
FEET.//
=========================================================================
warning 003 not available
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961124 21:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- 17.6S4 161.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 161.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 18.0S9 161.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 18.7S6 161.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 19.3S3 162.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.0S2 164.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 17.7S5  161.4E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 02 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS AMENDED DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHEARED THE
DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND
THIS WAS NOT IDENTIFIED UNTIL CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT LOCATION IS HIGH. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WE ANTICIPATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF COOL OCEAN
WATER SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS WEAKENING TREND.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0) AND 252100Z0
(DTG 251951Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z5 IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961125 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- 18.3S2 160.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 160.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 19.1S1 160.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 160.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.8S0 161.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 21.4S7 161.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION 18.5S4  160.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 05 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED AND
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT TC 06P FROM RE-INTENSIFYING,
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0
(DTG 251951Z3) AND 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 13 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961125 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- 19.2S2 160.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 160.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 161.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.9S1 162.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 21.7S0 163.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION 19.4S4  161.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE CORAL SEA NEAR NEW CALEDONIA. TC 06P REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING. TC 06P
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL BE
DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1) AND 262100Z1 (DTG
261951Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS
13 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961126 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 163.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 163.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.5S7 166.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION 20.1S3  164.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS HEADING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).  THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z
IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  07S WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Document: cyril.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006
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