[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DRENA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DRENA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970101 20:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 012021Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5S4
172.5E5 TO 15.0S6 169.0E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
011830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S5 172.0E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PACIFIC OCEAN APPEARS TO BE STARTING A CYCLOGENESIS
PHASE. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
THE CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE TWO VERY LARGE CONVECTIVE
CELLS WHICH ARE ORBITING EACH OTHER AND IT IS NOT YET
CLEAR WHICH OF THESE CELLS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 022030Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 970102 18:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 021821Z JAN 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/012021Z JAN 97//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
012030)//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/020553Z JAN 97//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
020600)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S9
170.4E2 TO 14.8S3 166.4E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
021430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S0 170.1E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE NEW HEBRIDES
ISLANDS HAS MAINTAINED ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW OVER THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INCREASING.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 031830Z5.
6. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 130.6E0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970103 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- 14.3S8 166.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 166.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 15.7S3 164.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 17.1S9 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
--
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 18.5S4 162.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 20.1S3 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION 14.6S1 166.1E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
NEAR ESPIRITU SANTO ISLAND. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3) AND 040300Z7 (DTG
040151Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 03/0000Z3
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 021821Z JAN 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 021830).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970103 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- 14.9S4 164.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 164.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 16.1S8 163.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.9S7 162.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.8S8 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 22.0S4 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION 15.2S8 164.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (TC 16P) IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS TO THE WEST OF ESPIRITU SANTO
ISLAND. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AND GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 09 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970104 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- 15.0S6 161.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 161.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.4S0 160.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.4S1 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.0S9 159.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.9S9 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 15.1S7 161.5E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS
ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970104 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- 15.0S6 160.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 160.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 15.0S6 159.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.8S4 158.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.0S8 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.8S7 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION 15.0S6 159.8E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS. IT HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 80 KNOT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T4.5). A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE IS
INDICATED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT IS NOT
EVIDENT ON THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES PRIOR TO SUNSET.
INFRARED IMAGERY HINTS AT AN EYE EMERGING THROUGH THE
CLOUD TOPS WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM NEAR THE
LOCATION OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY EYE, BUT THE CONTRAST
AT THIS TIME IS TOO WEAK TO IDENTIFY WHETHER THIS WARMING
IS TRULY DUE TO EYE FORMATION OR IF IT IS MERELY DUE TO A
FLUCTUATION OF CONVECTION. WE EXPECT TC 16P TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN AT
ROUGHLY THE SAME INTENSITY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7
IS 24 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970105 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 15.2S8 159.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 159.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.9S5 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.9S6 159.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.3S2 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 20.2S4 162.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 15.4S0 159.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS SLOWLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A
REGION OF TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER. BEYOND THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POSITION, TC 16P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE ITS
FORWARD MOTION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5)
AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 05/0000Z5 IS 25 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970105 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 15.9S5 159.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 159.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.0S8 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.4S3 160.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 20.2S4 161.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 22.1S5 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 16.2S9 159.0E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A
REGION OF TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
16P WILL ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
TROUGH. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND
061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051200Z8 IS 25 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970106 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 16.6S3 158.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 158.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.8S6 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.2S2 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 21.2S5 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 23.1S6 162.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 16.9S6 158.6E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD IN
THE CORAL SEA. THE SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SLIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEYOND THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 06/0000Z6 IS 26 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970106 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 17.5S3 159.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 159.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.6S5 160.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
185 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.1S3 162.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.6S9 163.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.5S0 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 17.8S6 159.7E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS. IT REACHED PEAK INTENSITY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSES
INDICATING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 100 AND 115
KNOTS (DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSES BETWEEN 5.5 AND
6.0). TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFETIME. IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY AT FIRST DUE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
REMAINING FAVORABLE. BY 48 HOURS IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AT A MORE RAPID RATE DUE TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE AT THAT TIME. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 28 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970107 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 18.5S4 161.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 161.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.0S2 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
185 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.6S9 164.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
180 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.5S0 166.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 25.5S2 169.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 18.9S8 161.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 062248Z
AND 062330Z. CONTINUED GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND WEAKENING WITH TIME ARE STILL EXPECTED. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 27 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970107 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 20.2S4 162.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 162.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 22.6S0 164.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 25.2S9 165.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 27.5S4 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 29.6S7 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 20.8S0 163.2E2
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 071130Z AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT
07/12Z FROM NEW CALEDONA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
16P (DRENA) IS MOVING JUST WEST OF KOUMAC (WMO 91577) AT
15 KNOTS AT A HEADING OF 150 DEGREES. LATEST NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT TC DRENA (16P) SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THIS DIRECTION FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST OF AUSTRALIA. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION FROM THESE MODELS THAT GRADUAL SHEARING OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY AND SO WE EXPECT A SLIGHT
SLOW DOWN OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD WHILE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 30 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970108 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 22.0S4 165.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
180 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 165.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 24.0S6 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 26.6S4 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 29.5S6 170.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 32.6S1 172.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 22.5S9 165.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS. 072330Z SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
080000Z SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM NEW CALEDONIA POSITION
DRENA JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LA TONTOUTA, NEW
CALEDONIA (WMO 91590). THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS USING 072330Z SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 16P IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
CONTINUE WEAKENING. DRENA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8) AND 090300Z2
(DTG 090151Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 26 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970108 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- 24.0S6 167.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 360 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
180 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 167.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 27.0S9 168.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 31.1S5 170.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 35.4S2 171.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 39.4S6 172.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 24.8S4 167.3E7
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 091500Z5
(DTG 091351Z9). LATEST SERIES OF SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) CONTINUES TO
MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.
INFRARED IMAGERY AT THIS TIME DOES NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWING DOWN OR
SHEARING FROM ITS UPPER LEVEL CENTER. THIS FORECAST CALLS
FOR CONTINUED MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FORWARD
SPEED OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE HEADS FOR THE COOK
STRAIT REGION OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 16P (DRENA) IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EAST OF
AUSTRALIA AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 48
HOURS (NO WIND RADII ARE PROVIDED BY JTWC FOR
EXTRATROPICAL LOWS) JUST PRIOR TO REACHING NEW ZEALAND.
WIND RADII IN THIS WARNING ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 32
FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970109 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- 27.3S2 167.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 360 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S2 167.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 30.6S9 168.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 33.9S5 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 37.4S4 171.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 41.3S8 173.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 28.1S1 168.1E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR NORFOLK ISLAND IN THE SOUTHWEST
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT NORFOLK ISLAND
(WMO 94996) HAS DROPPED 15 MB OVER THE PAST FIFTEEN
HOURS. AT 09/00Z, NORFOLK ISLAND REPORTED THE SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE TO BE 993.5 MB (42 KNOTS). TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NEAR THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG
091351Z9) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 09/0000Z9 IS 27 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970109 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- 31.2S6 169.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
360 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2S6 169.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 36.0S9 171.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
345 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 40.0S4 173.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 32.4S9 170.4E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF 09/1130Z
INDICATING 55 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (MILLER/LANDER XT3.5).
ALSO SUPPORTING THIS INTENSITY IS SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
NORFOLK ISLAND (WMO 94996; YSNF) WHICH REPORTED A 983.6
MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AS TC 16P PASSED BY. TC 16P IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 20 FEET. //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970110 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 33.9S5 169.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
360 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 33.9S5 169.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 37.6S6 170.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
345 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 41.3S8 173.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 34.8S5 170.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE TASMAN SEA. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 10/0000Z1 IS 20 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970110 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 36.6S5 171.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
360 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 36.6S5 171.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 39.3S5 172.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 37.3S3 171.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (DRENA) HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS
16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).//
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Document: drena.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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