[Index]
Tropical Cyclone FERGUS
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone FERGUS [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 961220 13:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201251Z DEC 96//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.7S2
166.0E3 TO 9.6S5 163.1E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
201130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.5S1 165.2E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS SHOWN BY BOTH
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS WELL AS WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE PRESENT OVER THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS SHOW A LARGE REGION OF INFLOW FROM THE
EQUATOR IS PRESENT WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 211300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 961221 14:00z CORRECTED
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION
211351Z DEC 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/201251Z DEC 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
201300)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA
SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. REMARKS:
THIS CANCELS REF A.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR:
BULLETIN HEADER SHOULD BE WTPS21 PGTW VICE WTXS21 PGTW.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 961223 15:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231521Z DEC 96//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S3
160.4E1 TO 17.7S5 159.9E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 231430Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 160.3E0. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS NEAR THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A CLEARLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 241530Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961224 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- 13.3S7 159.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 159.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 14.4S9 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.4S0 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
005 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.3S0 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 17.3S1 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION 13.6S0 159.4E9
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241355Z0) AND 250300Z0
(DTG 250155Z8). TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) HAS FORMED
SOUTH OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 232330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. FERGUS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 231521Z DEC 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 231530 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241355Z0) AND 250300Z0
(DTG 250155Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961224 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- 13.5S9 158.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 158.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.2S7 158.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
005 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 14.9S4 158.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 15.8S4 158.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 16.8S5 158.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION 13.7S1 158.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED
BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250157Z0) AND 251500Z3
(DTG 251357Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961225 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- 12.1S4 158.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
005 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 158.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 11.7S9 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 12.8S1 159.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 14.0S5 159.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 15.4S0 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION 12.0S3 158.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P(FERGUS) IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS RELOCATED
BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF
55 KNOTS (T3.5). TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P IS LOOPING IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SOUTHWARD MOTION
AFTER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251357Z3) AND 260300Z1 (DTG
260157Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961225 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- 10.8S9 159.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
005 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 159.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 10.7S8 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 11.8S0 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.2S6 164.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.8S3 165.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 10.8S9 160.0E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
IN THE SOLOMON SEA, NEAR GUADALCANAL ISLAND. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ACCELERATE IN ITS FORWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260157Z1) AND 261500Z4 (DTG
261357Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961226 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- 10.6S7 160.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 080 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S7 160.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 11.3S5 162.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 12.3S6 163.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.6S0 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.1S7 165.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 10.8S9 161.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 13P HAS INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM THE
REGION HAVE HAD SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REPORTS AS LOW AS 995
MB. SHIP REPORTS FROM VESSEL 3FRR5 HAVE BEEN USEFUL IN
ESTABLISHING THE GALE WIND RADII. TC 13P HAS COMPLETED
THE LOOP IN ITS TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY
ACCELERATING DOWN THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261357Z4) AND
270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961226 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- 12.2S5 161.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 161.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.7S1 162.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.6S2 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 17.4S2 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.1S1 165.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION 12.6S9 161.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 36-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. FERGUS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING BEYOND THE
36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS IT BEGINS TRANSITIONING INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2
(DTG 270157Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271357Z5). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL)(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961227 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- 13.5S9 163.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 163.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.6S2 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 18.1S0 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 20.9S1 168.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.8S3 169.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 14.0S5 164.0E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE EXPECT TC
13P TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG
271355Z3) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280155Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961227 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- 16.3S0 165.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 165.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 18.9S8 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 21.2S5 168.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.2S7 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 25.6S3 170.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 17.0S8 165.8E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 13P HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG
280157Z3) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281357Z6). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 27/1200Z2 IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961228 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- 18.6S5 168.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 168.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 21.0S3 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.1S6 171.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 25.7S4 173.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 28.6S6 175.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 19.2S2 168.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
BURTONFIELD (WMO 91565) AND BAUERFIELD (WMO 91557). THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES FERGUS HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FERGUS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SAME GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG
281357Z6) AND 290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961228 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- 21.2S5 170.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 170.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.7S2 171.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 26.4S2 174.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 29.5S6 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 32.7S2 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION 21.8S1 170.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) HAS JUST PASSED TO THE EAST
OF WMO 91568 (ANEITYUM ISLAND). AT 28/0800Z8 WMO 91568
WAS REPORTING EXTREMELY LOW PRESSURES (966 MB) BUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (20 KNOTS), INDICATING THAT THEY
WERE IN THE EYE OF TC 13P AT THAT TIME. TC 13P HAS SINCE
MOVED PAST ANEITYUM ISLAND AND IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS IN
PREVIOUS WARNINGS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 36 HOURS WHILE
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. WARNING AND
FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SHRUNK IN AGREEMENT WITH
A 28/0636Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY ANALYSIS PROVIDED BY AIR
FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL AS WELL AS SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG
290157Z4) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291357Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961229 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 24.1S7 173.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 173.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 27.2S1 175.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 30.3S6 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 33.7S3 178.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 36.7S6 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 24.9S5 173.7E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FERGUS IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT PICKS UP STRONGER STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
FERGUS IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG
291357Z7) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300157Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961229 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 27.5S4 175.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S4 175.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 31.6S0 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 36.8S7 177.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 43.0S7 179.4W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 28.5S5 175.7E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) HAS PICKED UP SPEED AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING AT 21 KNOTS NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. WE
EXPECT TC 13P TO WEAKEN AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z6 (DTG 300157Z6) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301357Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961230 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 32.5S0 176.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 32.5S0 176.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 37.8S8 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 43.5S2 179.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 33.8S4 176.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND
IS MOVING SOUTH AT 27 KNOTS. FERGUS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND WITHIN 12 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
FERGUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301357Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 961230 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- 38.1S2 176.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 38.1S2 176.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 43.3S0 177.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 39.4S6 176.6E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS CURRENTLY MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND. CURRENT
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM NORTH ISLAND (HICKS BAY (WMO 93196)
AND MOKOHINAU (WMO 93069)). CURRENT WIND RADII BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE
13P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE
NEXT TWELVE HOURS WHILE CONTINUING ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT. ALTHOUGH NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE
REMNANTS OF TC 13P WILL REMAIN A POWERFUL WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
|
Document: fergus.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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