[Index]
Tropical Cyclone FREDA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone FREDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970124 00:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 240021Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0S9
170.5E3 TO 23.0S5 172.0E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
232330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3S3 171.0E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
PACIFIC OCEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTEROMETRY AS OF 23/1200Z SUPPORTS
THE PRESENCE OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THIS AREA. DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS A LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE CIRRUS COVERAGE. SYNOPTIC AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THIS CIRCULATION IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 250030Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 970125 00:30z CORRECTED
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION
250021Z JAN 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/240021Z JAN 97//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/250021Z JAN 97//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 240030). REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WPTXS21 PGTW 250030).//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. REMARKS:
THIS CANCELS REF A.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE HAS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS 119 NM SOUTH OF
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
DISTURBANCE. WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: MESSAGE CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT HEADER.
NULLIFIES REF B.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 970125 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 252051Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.1S3
172.8E8 TO 21.9S2 175.7E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 251800Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2S5 173.4E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FIJI
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT
ANTICYLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS ALSO ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THIS DISTURBANCE. SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM MATTHEW ISLAND (WMO 91598) INDICATES THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970126 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- 21.0S3 174.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 174.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 21.4S7 175.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 21.9S2 175.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 23.0S5 176.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 24.6S2 176.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 26.7S5 175.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 21.1S4 174.6E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI.
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO EXCELLENT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AT
THE LOWER LEVELS. BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION, SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY SHALLOW-
AND MID-LEVEL STEERING. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS). FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
A LARGER THAN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8) AND 270300Z2 (DTG
270151Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 252051Z JAN 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 252100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970126 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- 21.4S7 175.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 175.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 22.3S7 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 23.4S9 177.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.7S3 177.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 26.0S8 178.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 27.9S8 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION 21.6S9 175.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO EXCELLENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
BY 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, TC 22P WILL BE
INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY THE SHALLOW AND MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). CURRENT
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA. AS UPPER AND LOWER
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FURTHER. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8), 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4)
AND 270300Z2 (DTG270151Z6), AND 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970126 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- 21.5S8 176.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 176.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 22.2S6 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 23.3S8 178.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 24.7S3 179.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 26.1S9 179.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 28.6S6 179.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION 21.7S0 176.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 261130Z INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING
200641Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FREDA IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE FORECAST TRACK GRADUALLY TURNS TOWARD THE
SOUTH WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG
270151Z6), 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), AND 271500Z5 (DTG
271351Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970126 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- 22.1S5 176.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 176.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 23.1S6 177.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.3S9 178.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 25.4S1 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 26.7S5 179.7W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 29.0S1 178.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION 22.4S8 176.9E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS ARE BASED
ON 261730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 27051Z6), 270900Z8 (DTG
270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), AND 272100Z2 (DTG
271951Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970127 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- 23.1S6 176.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 176.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 24.2S8 176.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 25.1S8 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 26.0S8 177.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 26.7S5 176.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 27.1S0 175.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 23.4S9 176.4E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SAME
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, TC 22P (FREDA) IS EXPECT TO BE PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY THE SHALLOW AND MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
OUR PRIMARY MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK.
AN ALTERNATE LOW-PROBABILITY SCENERIO SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (270751Z2),
271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (271951Z6), AND
280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 19 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970127 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMAMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- 23.6S1 176.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S1 176.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.3S9 176.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 25.0S7 176.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 25.8S5 176.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 26.2S0 175.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 26.6S4 174.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 23.8S3 176.4E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 22P (FREDA) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, SYSTEM WILL
BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY THE SHALLOW AND MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9),
272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z60, AND
280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 20 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970127 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- 24.1S7 176.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 176.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 25.1S8 176.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 26.2S0 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 27.0S9 176.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 28.0S0 175.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 29.6S7 174.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 24.4S0 176.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AT
05 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
271040Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. FREDA IS STILL
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970128 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- 25.7S4 177.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S4 177.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 27.0S9 177.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 28.4S4 178.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 29.5S6 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 30.7S0 176.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 26.0S8 177.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN. FREDA IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND
290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 28/0000Z0 IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970128 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- 27.5S4 178.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S4 178.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 29.3S4 178.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 30.6S9 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 31.6S0 178.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 32.4S9 177.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION 27.9S8 178.3E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY AND
LOCATION ARE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF
28/1130Z SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 65 KNOT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T4.0). TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8)
AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970129 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 26.5S3 178.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S3 178.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 26.8S6 178.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 27.2S1 178.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 28.3S3 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 29.6S7 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 26.6S4 178.4E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE
SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION IS
RELOCATED DUE TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN
ELONGATED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED 120 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22P IS FORECAST
TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1) AND 300300Z6 (DTG
300151Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 29/0000Z1
IS 17 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970129 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 26.4S2 179.2W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 179.2W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 27.0S9 177.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 27.8S7 175.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 28.5S5 175.1W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 29.0S1 174.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 26.6S4 178.7W3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS AND HAS JUST CROSSED THE DATELINE. OUR CURRENT
INTENSITY AND WARNING POSITION ARE BASED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF 29/1130Z. THIS ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF 45 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
(DVORAK CI 3.0). CERTAIN ASPECTS OF THE ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THIS, AND IT IS
WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND APPEARS TO BE SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. WE EXPECT TC 22P TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO
THIS SYSTEM CROSSING THE DATELINE THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). NEXT WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI (SEE WHPS31
PHNC 300300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4
IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
warning 012 not available
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970131 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- 28.7S7 179.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S7 179.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 28.5S5 178.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 28.7S7 178.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 28.9S9 177.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 29.2S3 177.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION 28.6S6 179.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) HAS BEEN REGENERATED DUE TO
SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF GALE FORCE WINDS. TC 22P (FREDA) IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATES THAT
DEEPER CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE SYSTEM=S CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM DISPLAYS SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DIRECT INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, WHICH HAS FACILITATED A
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
WARNING INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 310000Z
SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORT OF 45 KNOTS (EQUIVALENT 1-MIN WIND
AVERAGE EQUAL TO 51 KNOTS). CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON A 301103Z SCATTEROMETER PASS AS WELL AS 310000Z
SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG
311951Z0) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 310751Z4).MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 20 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970131 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- 29.1S2 178.4W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S2 178.4W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 30.4S7 177.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 31.6S0 176.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 32.9S4 175.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 34.3S0 175.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION 29.4S5 178.1W7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 09
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
SHIP REPORTS. FREDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERAL
MOTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8) AND
011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970201 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- 28.9S9 178.7W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S9 178.7W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 29.6S7 177.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 30.3S6 176.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 31.4S8 175.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 32.6S1 174.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 29.1S2 178.5W1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
3 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A TOTALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP DATA SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NEAR THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG
011351Z1) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 01/0000Z1 IS 17 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970201 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- 30.1S4 177.0W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1S4 177.0W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 31.6S0 175.4W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 33.3S9 174.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 35.2S0 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 30.5S8 176.6W0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS. IT MOVED PAST RAOUL (WMO 93994) DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS, WHERE A 989 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS
REPORTED. THIS SYNOPTIC DATA WOULD CORRESPOND TO MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 0F 48 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH WINDS REPORTED AT
RAOUL WERE ONLY IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE. OUR CURRENT WARNING
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY
ANALYSIS INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS (MILLER AND LANDER
XT2.5) AS OF 1130Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. WE EXPECT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9)
AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 16 FEET.
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Document: freda.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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