[Index]
Tropical Cyclone GILLIAN
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone GILLIAN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970210 01:30z CORRECTED
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100130Z FEB 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S7
150.6E2 TO 16.0S7 147.2E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
092330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S3 149.4E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING IN THE
CORAL SEA SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND IS SITUATED IN
A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
5. JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTS MESSAGE HEADER.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 110130Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970210 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 14.3S8 149.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 149.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.2S8 148.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 15.9S5 147.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.7S4 146.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.6S4 146.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 14.5S0 149.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) HAS FORMED IN THE CORAL
SEA EAST OF AUSTRALIA=S CAPE YORK PENINSULA AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 092330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. GILLIAN HAS SHOWN A TREND FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION, BUT
DECELERATE DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW AS IT MOVES
THROUGH A WEAKENED PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 100130Z FEB 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 100130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG
101353Z3) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970210 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- 14.9S4 149.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 149.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.5S2 148.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 17.9S7 148.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 148.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 20.5S7 148.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 22.4S8 149.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION 15.3S9 148.9E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
100530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GILLIAN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING UNTIL IT NEARS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7
(DTG 101353Z3), 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9), 110300Z5 (DTG
110153Z1), AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970210 15:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 003A
RELOCATED CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 15.6S2 149.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 149.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.7S4 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 17.8S6 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.3S3 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.6S8 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.6S0 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 15.9S5 149.9E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE ON
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME LARGER IN
AREAL EXTENT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK
DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL, AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 24P (GILLIAN)
AND IS EXPECTED TO FACILITATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS A RELOCATED WARNING BASED ON A
100753Z SATELLITE-BASED MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) ANALYSIS
AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9), 110300Z5 (DTG
110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND 111500Z8 (DTG
111353Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS
12 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION: WRONG TC NUMBER IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970210 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- 16.0S7 150.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 150.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.8S5 150.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 18.0S9 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 19.4S4 149.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 21.0S3 149.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 23.4S9 149.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION 16.2S9 150.0E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW AFTER 24 HOURS. OVERALL MOTION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TC 24P (GILLIAN).
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG
110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2), AND 112100Z5 (DTG
111953Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS
12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970211 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 005
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 149.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 149.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.7S4 149.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.3S1 149.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.9S7 149.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 18.5S4 149.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 19.6S6 149.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 16.2S9 149E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW FROM A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P
(GILLIAN) TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW SPEED.
WARNING POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE WEST BASED ON
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM WILLIS ISLAND AND HOLMES REEF.
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS HAS ARRESTED THE SYSTEMS
DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER
24 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7),
111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4), 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0) AND
120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970211 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- 17.2S0 148.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 148.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 18.5S4 148.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 19.5S5 147.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 20.4S6 145.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 17.5S3 148.6E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE
24P (GILLIAN) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER
LAND. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WILL BEGIN WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4), 112100Z5 (DTG
111953Z0), 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2) AND 120900Z2 (DTG
120753Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS
12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970211 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 17.5S3 148.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 148.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.8S7 147.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.0S2 146.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.1S4 145.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 17.8S6 148.4E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 5 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN T3.0 (45
KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
AUSTRALIA BETWEEN THE 24- AND THE 36-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION AND TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2),
120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5), AND
122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 11/1200Z5 IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970211 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- 18.3S2 148.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 148.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 19.7S7 147.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 21.3S6 146.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 22.7S1 145.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION 18.7S6 148.1E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOSE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 24P IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERLAND
AND TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2), 120900Z2 (DTG
120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5) AND 122100Z6 (DTG
121953Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 11/1800Z1
IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970212 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 18.2S1 147.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 147.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 19.0S0 145.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 19.4S4 145.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 18.4S3 146.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 9
KNOTS. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS SHEARED AWAY FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE FIXES AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LUCINDA PT (WMO
942950). NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8),
121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970212 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- 18.5S4 146.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER.
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 146.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 19.0S0 145.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND.
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.4S4 145.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND.
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION 18.6S5 146.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING
LANDFALL AT FORECAST TIME AND WILL BE DISSIPATED OVER
LAND WITHIN 24 HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DATA AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
LUCINDA PT (WMO 942950) AND CARDWELL (WMO 942920). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5), 122100Z6 (DTG
121953Z1) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970212 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 18.9S8 146.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 146.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 19.9S9 146.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 19.2S2 146.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 3 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 12/0730Z3 SHOWED
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
12/1200Z6 IS 12 FEET.//
|
Document: gillian.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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