[Index]
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970216 00:30z CORRECTED
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 160030Z FEB 16//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA
SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S2
158.9E3 TO 16.1S8 154.2E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
152330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S5 158.2E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THIS AREA HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IDENTIFIABLE BY MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS AND MICROWAVE DATA.
5. JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTS MESSAGE HEADER.
6. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 170030Z1.//
=========================================================================
WHPS21 PHNC 970216 05:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 160430Z FEB 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S3 174.7W9 TO 13.0S4
177.9W4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 160300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 175.9W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS
SCHEDULED FOR 160600Z3.
2. REMARKS: SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST 6
HOURS. CONVECTION MOSTLY ISOLATED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 170500Z3.//
AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG71610470647
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970216 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- 14.1S6 157.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 157.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.9S4 156.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 15.8S4 155.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 16.7S4 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 17.4S2 152.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION 14.3S8 157.2E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) HAS FORMED IN THE CORAL
SEA. TC 26P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 26P HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF
30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). TC 26P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 16/1800Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG 170755Z5) AND 172100Z1 (DTG
171955Z8). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 160123Z FEB 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 160030 COR).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970217 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- 15.6S2 155.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 155.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 16.5S2 154.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 17.4S2 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 17.8S6 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 18.0S9 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 18.0S9 147.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION 15.8S4 155.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE CORAL SEA. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS SLOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC
26P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO INTENSIFY. WARNING
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2), 172100Z1 (DTG
171955Z8), 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0) AND 180900Z8 (DTG
180755Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 17/0600Z4
IS 13 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970217 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 16.7S4 155.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 155.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 17.8S6 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 18.7S6 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 19.4S4 153.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 19.8S8 153.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 20.6S8 151.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 17.0S8 155.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE CORAL SEA AT 8 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 17/1205Z SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. ACCORDINGLY, THIS WARNING
IS RELOCATED DUE TO THE VECTOR FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
POSITION TO THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TRUE MOTION OF TC 26P. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS SLOWING THE INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 26P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171955Z8), 180300Z2 (DTG
180155Z0), 180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG
181355Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 17/1200Z1
IS 13 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970217 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- 17.3S1 155.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 155.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 18.2S1 154.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 19.0S0 154.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.3S5 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 20.7S9 152.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION 17.5S3 155.1E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE CORAL SEA. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 26P IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0), 180900Z8 (DTG
180755Z6), 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3) AND 182100Z2 (DTG
181955Z9). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 17/1800Z7
IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970218 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- 17.2S0 155.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 155.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 17.7S5 155.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 18.1S0 155.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 18.6S5 155.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 19.1S1 155.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 20.1S3 156.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 17.3S1 155.0E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. IT HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED DIRECTLY ON A 17/2330Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS OF 55 KNOTS (DVORAK T3.5). OUR
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
WARNING. WE ANTICIPATE THAT A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE OVER
SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA SHOULD LIMIT THE APPROACH OF TC 26P
TO THE CONTINENT. IT WILL LIKELY SLOW TO NEAR QUASI-
STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF TC 26P TURNS
INTO A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS.
ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRESENT
TO KEEP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SLOW. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6), 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3),
182100Z2 (DTG 181955Z9) AND 190300Z3 (DTG 190155Z1).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970218 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- 17.9S7 155.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 155.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 18.8S7 155.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.5S5 155.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.2S4 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 21.0S3 156.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 22.0S4 157.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION 18.1S0 155.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF 18/0530Z WHICH
SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF 55 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T3.5). TC
26P IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS
SAME DIRECTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3),
182100Z2 (DTG 181955Z9), 190300Z3 (DTG 190155Z1) AND
190900Z9 (DTG 190755Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970218 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- 17.8S6 156.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 156.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 18.3S2 156.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 18.9S8 157.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 19.6S6 158.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 20.3S5 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.7S0 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION 17.9S7 156.3E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS. THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 181130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING 180900Z SHIP REPORTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF HAROLD, AND AFTER IT
PASSES, STEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P. HAROLD SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IMPROVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z (DTG 181955Z9), 190300Z3 (DTG
190155Z1), 190900Z9 (DTG 190755Z7), AND 191500Z6 (DTG
191355Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970218 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- 18.2S1 157.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
B70 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 157.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 18.9S8 158.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 19.5S5 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 20.1S3 160.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 20.7S9 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 21.7S0 162.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION 18.4S3 157.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED
BASED ON 181730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE SAME SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING
181800Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS. HAROLD IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY THROUGH 48 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE
AS IT HEADS IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190155Z1), 190900Z9 (DTG
190755Z7), 191500Z6 (DTG 191355Z4), AND 192100Z3 (DTG
191955Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970219 03:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 009 A
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 18.5S4 157.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 157.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 19.0S0 158.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 19.6S6 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 20.3S5 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 21.0S3 160.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 22.1S5 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 18.6S5 158.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 09 KNOTS. HAROLD IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOLOMANS AND NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER AUSTRALIA=S QUEENSLAND COAST. THESE
TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACT IN CONCERT TO STEER HAROLD
EAST-SOUTHEAST. SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH APPEARS TO HINDER
HAROLD=S INTENSIFICATION. NOGAPS MODEL PROGS THE TROUGH
TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING HAROLD TO GRADUALLY TRACK
MORE SOUTHWARD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3),
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0) 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6), AND
200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9).MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190000Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO 31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION: 01 NOT 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE
SOUTHWESTPAC.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970219 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- 19.4S4 158.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 158.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.1S3 158.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 20.8S0 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 21.4S7 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 22.1S5 160.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 23.2S7 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION 19.6S6 158.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08
KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AUSTRALIA=S QUEENSLAND
COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOLOMANS
ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
IS SHEARING A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF HAROLD=S CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING SOUTHEAST. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG
191951Z6), 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9) AND 200900Z1 (DTG
200751Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27S WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970219 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 19.7S7 159.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND
SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 159.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 20.8S0 159.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 21.8S1 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 22.7S1 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 23.7S2 162.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 25.3S0 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 20.0S2 159.2E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LOOP ISLAND (WMO 91574) AND 191130Z
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT 35 KNOT WIND
RADIUS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED USING 190900Z SHIP REPORTS. THE
CURRENT 50 KNOT WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE
190900Z WIND REPORT FROM LOOP ISLAND. HAROLD IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD IN STEERING FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKENING AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEYOND 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191955Z0), 200300Z5 (DTG
200155Z3), 200900Z1 (DTG 200755Z9), AND 201500Z8 (DTG
201355Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970219 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- 20.3S5 160.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 160.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 21.5S8 161.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 22.6S0 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 23.6S1 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 24.5S1 164.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 26.4S2 165.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 20.6S8 160.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
191730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAROLD IS BEGINNING
TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOTION TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 72 HOURS AS WELL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3), 200900Z1 (DTG
200755Z9), 201500Z8 (DTG 201355Z6), AND 202100Z5 (DTG
201955Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970220 03:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- 21.7S0 161.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 161.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 23.3S8 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 25.1S8 164.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 27.0S9 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 28.8S8 168.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 32.0S5 172.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION 22.1S5 161.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AS IT
ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD)
WILL BE AT 12 HOUR INTERVALS CORRESPONDING TO THE 00Z AND
12Z SYNOPTIC TIMES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG
201355Z6) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210155Z4). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION: CORRECT 48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970220 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- 22.9S3 162.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 162.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 24.0S6 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 25.1S8 163.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION 23.2S7 162.3E2
TC 26P (HAROLD) IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. HAROLD
IS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ALL DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 120 NM DOWNSTREAM. THE RESIDUAL
WINDFIELD IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT WARNING AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970221 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- 25.6S3 164.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S3 164.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 27.8S7 166.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION 26.1S9 164.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P (HAROLD) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 26P
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. //
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Document: harold.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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