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Tropical Cyclone IAN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970416 12:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 161153Z APR 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA.
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR.
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS.
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S3
171.8E7 TO 20.1S3 177.9E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 161030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 172.7E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
PACIFIC HAS PERSISTED FOR WELL OVER 24 HOURS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH 25 KNOTS (DVORAK T1.0).
SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE AREA INDICATES SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
AROUND 1003 MB. SEVERAL STATIONS IN THE AREA HAVE ALSO
REPORTED WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 171200Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970417 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 161153Z AP
R
97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 161200)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- 18.8S7 174.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 174.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 21.0S3 177.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 23.2S7 179.6W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 24.3S9 175.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 25.0S7 171.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION 19.4S4 175.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM TO SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
16/2330Z INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT
13 KNOTS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS (DVORAK T# 2.5). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, AFTERWARDS IT WILL
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND MOVE IN A MORE EASTWARD DIRECTION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY STEERING. ONCE ENTERING THIS WESTERLY
FLOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING UPPERLEVEL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8). THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 161153Z APR 97
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 161200).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970417 09:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- 20.3S5 176.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 176.3E7
--- FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 22.9S3 179.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 24.3S9 175.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 25.2S9 171.2W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 25.5S2 167.0W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION 21.0S3 177.2E7
LATEST SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 34P (IAN) HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
170300Z WARNING. INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CENTER ARE
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS. THIS AGREES WITH RECENT SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM BOTH NANDI AIRPORT (WMO 91680) AND A 40 KT SHIP
REPORT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THUS,
THIS ADDITIONAL WARNING IS ISSUED. JTWC WILL RESUME
ISSUING 12 HOURLY WARNINGS BEGINNING WITH THE 171200Z
WARNING. THIS WARNING INCREASES FORECAST WIND
INTENSITIES, THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS APPROXIMATELY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171200Z1 (DTG 171353Z0) AND 180000Z9 (DTG 180153Z8).
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORECTION: INCLUDES NAME OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970417 15:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN) WARNING NR 003A RELOCATED.
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 19.7S7 176.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 176.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 21.4S7 178.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 22.7S1 179.8W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 23.9S4 176.8W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 24.8S4 173.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 20.1S3 176.6E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED A REGION OF
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ARREST THE INTENSIFICATION TREND AND BEGIN
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. A COMBINATION OF INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO SEPARATE FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WIND
RADIUS HAS BEEN REDUCED BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA FROM FIJI
(WMO 91678 AND 91680). WARNING HAS BEEN RELOCATED DUE TO
A VECTOR FROM THE PREVIOUS TO THE CURRENT WARNING
POSITION IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF SYSTEM MOTION. FUTURE
WARNINGS WILL BE AT 12 HOUR INTERVALS AS INDICATED BELOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8)
AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1).
REASON FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTION ISSUED TO INDICATE THAT
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GUAM WILL RETAIN WARNING
RESPONSIBILITY FOR TC 34P (IAN) UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 HOUR INTERVALS UNDER SAME
MANOP HEADER (WTPS31 PGTW)//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 970418 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- 20.8S0 179.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 179.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 21.5S8 177.6W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 22.8S2 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 24.6S2 171.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 26.7S5 168.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 21.0S3 179.9W6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN) IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 172330Z6 SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 55
KNOTS (DVORAK T3.5). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES ITS
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). NEXT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED
BY NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI (SEE WHPS31 PHNC
181500). NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1)AND
190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9).//
=========================================================================
warning 005 not available
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970419 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 22.2S6 172.2W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 172.2W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 24.0S6 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 26.7S5 163.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 22.6S0 171.1W0
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0).
TROPICAL CYCLONE (IAN) 34P IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 19 KTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BECOME EXPOSED WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR AS IT INCREASES SPEED AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAX SEAS 14 FT AT 190000Z APR 97.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 970419 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 22.2S6 168.2W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 168.2W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 23.0S5 163.9W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 22.4S8 167.1W5
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING BY NAVPACMETOCCEN. SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR REGENERATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P (IAN)
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AT 20 KTS. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. LATEST METSAT DATA
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND STRONG
SHEARING HAS DISPLACED IT 195 NM NORTHWEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. MAX SEAS 13 FT AT 191200Z APR 97.//
|
Document: ian.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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