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Tropical Cyclone JUSTIN
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
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Tropical Cyclone JUSTIN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970305 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051453Z MAR 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA.
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS.
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 17.0S8 157.0E3 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 60
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 051230Z
INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2
157.4E7. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
4. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE CORAL SEA HAS PERSISTED FOR
APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. A VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND
SURGE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM.
THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) TO THE EAST
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO ENHANCING WIND FLOW INTO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SYNOPTIC DATA NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS
INDICATE WINDS PREDOMINANTLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE
AXIS, WITH WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS AND GREATER ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SYNOPTIC SHIP OBSERVATIONS
OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS
NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS INDICATE THIS IS A VERY
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER FEATURE EVEN IF IT IS NOT
YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGER (SSM/I), SCATTEROMETRY, AND YESTERDAY=S VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A FEW EDDIES MAY EXIST IN THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS, BUT NONE HAVE YET
ORGANIZED THE SYNOPTIC FLOW INTO THEM. OVERALL THIS
SYSTEM HAS ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN IS CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTROID
OF THE NUMEROUS EDDIES IN THE FLOW. DUE TO THE STRONG
MONSOON FLOW PRESENT NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE, IF IT
DOES BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL
HAPPEN RATHER QUICKLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 061500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970306 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 051453Z MAR 97
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 051500 )
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 17.2S0 156.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 156.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 156.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.5S3 156.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.7S5 155.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.9S7 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.0S9 153.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 17.2S0 156.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. TC32P IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON
TROUGH AND IS BEST CHARACTERIZED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION
WHICH REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SYSTEM CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS (DVORAK
T2.0), HOWEVER WINDS WITHIN THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AREAS
UP TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SYSTEM CENTER ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 35-45 KNOTS. CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION
ABOUT THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5(DTG 060753Z1),
061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9(DTG 071953Z5) AND
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 051453Z MAR 97 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 051500 ) REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970306 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- 17.3S1 156.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 156.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.4S2 155.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 17.5S3 155.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.7S5 154.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
310 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.7S5 153.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 17.6S4 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION 17.3S1 155.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT A
VERY LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 990MB, HOWEVER INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR
30KTS (DVORAK 2.0) AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEMS CENTER. SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
SHIP REPORTS AND NEAR BY ISLAND REPORTS FROM 120 TO 180NM
AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER SHOW WINDS WITHIN THE
MONSOON FLOW BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS. THESE STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO AND BE A PART
OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4),
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970306 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 154.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 154.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.4S2 154.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.4S2 154.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 153.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.4S2 153.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.0S8 152.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 17.4S2 154.8E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (TC 32P) IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN
THE CORAL SEA. TC 32P IS DEVELOPING FROM A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG
070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND 071500Z3 (DTG
071353Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970306 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- 16.9S6 154.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 154.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.8S5 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.8S5 153.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 16.8S5 152.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 16.5S2 152.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 16.1S8 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION 16.9S6 154.0E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEST IN THE CORAL SEA. THE POSITION OF TC 32P
HAS BEEN RELOCATED DUE TO SYNOPTIC DATA FROM LIHOU REEF
(WMO 94296) AS WELL AS 061248Z1 SCATTEROMETRY. THIS DATA
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS SAME SCATTEROMETRY DATA
ALSO SHOWS THAT TC 32P HAS INTENSIFIED TO 40 KNOTS WITH A
VERY LARGE GALE (WINDS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS) RADIUS. TC
32P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST. WE EXPECT TC
32P TO INTENSIFY SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON ITS
LARGE SIZE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6),
070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9) AND
072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970307 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 16.9S6 153.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
360 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 153.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
360 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.8S5 152.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
370 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 16.6S3 151.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
280 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.4S1 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
280 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.5S2 152.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
280 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 16.9S6 153.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. HOWEVER BOTH SYNOPTIC DATA AND SCATTEROMETER
INFORMATION SHOW A VERY LARGE EXTENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS
AROUND THE SYSTEMS CENTER. LATEST NUMERICAL FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AND THEN
A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EAST IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2),
071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5) AND
080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970307 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- 16.9S6 152.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.7S4 152.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
335 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 16.3S0 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.9S5 150.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.0S7 151.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION 16.9S6 152.7E5
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC REPORTS
FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) WITH A 985MB PRESSURE
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THEIR
EAST-NORTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ABOUT ITS
CENTER. FORECAST MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGESTING A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE
TO THE RIDGE MOVING BACK OVER AUSTRALIA SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS JUST WEST OF THE NORTH
ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND. MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(GAVIN) WILL ALSO AFFECT THE CHARACTER OF THIS TROUGH.
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT CURRENT SYNOPTIC DATA
WHILE MAINTAINING THE STRONG WESTERLY BURST NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 21
FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9),
072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5), 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7) AND
080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970307 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 152.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.7S4 151.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 16.5S2 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
335 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.0S7 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.8S4 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 16.0S7 151.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 16.9S6 152.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS STILL TRACKING TOWARDS
THE WEST, ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SLOWED OUT OVER THE PAST
THREE HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA
IS IMPEDING OUTFLOW OF TC 32P TO THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH
OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ACCORDINGLY,
HEAVY CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 32P IS
ELONGATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER SYMMETRIZATION IS NECESSARY
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR. THEREFORE,
WE EXPECT TC 32P TO DEVELOP AT A SLOWER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS WARNING. WE ARE EXPECTING TC 32P
TO BEGIN TO EXECUTE A LOOP WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5), 080300Z1 (DTG
080153Z7), 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3) AND 081500Z4 (DTG
081353Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970307 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- 16.9S6 152.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 16.8S5 151.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 16.5S2 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
335 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 16.2S9 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.8S4 151.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.0S7 152.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION 16.9S6 152.0E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD
IN THE CORAL SEA. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS THE SURFACE WINDS
FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTHERLY
TO EASTERLY, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION
AND SPEED. SYSTEM CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION HAS ALSO
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS INDICATED BY OUR
071800Z6 SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
DVORAK T NUMBER TO T3.0. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STARTING TO
CATCH UP WITH THE SURFACE WINDS SHOWN EARLIER IN THE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS TWO WARNINGS. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO MOVE
WESTWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE LOOPING AND
TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7), 080900Z7 (DTG
080753Z3), 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0) AND 082100Z1 (DTG
081953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970308 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 16.9S6 151.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 151.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 16.8S5 151.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
330 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.7S4 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
335 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.4S1 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.1S8 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 152.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 16.9S6 151.7E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF SURFACE WIND REPORTS IN THE AREA AND SURFACE
PRESSURE READINGS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296). JUSTIN IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN IT AND GAVIN REORIENTS. JUSTIN
IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LESSENS OVER IT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3), 081500Z4 (DTG
081353Z0), 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6) AND 090300Z2 (DTG
090153Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970308 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- 16.9S6 152.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.0S8 151.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 17.1S9 151.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 17.1S9 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.2S0 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 17.2S0 150.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION 16.9S6 152.0E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
RELOCATED BASED ON 080530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
080600Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO
94296). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SURFACE SYNOPTIC WIND AND PRESSURE REPORTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P IS NOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO RECEDE
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND ALLOW JUSTIN TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT
GENERAL HEADING. THE PREPONDERANCE OF OUR FORECAST AIDS
SUPPORT THIS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE A
LOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0), 082100Z1 (DTG
081953Z6), 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8) AND 090900Z8 (DTG
090753Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970308 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- 17.2S0 151.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 151.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 17.4S2 151.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.6S4 150.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.7S5 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.9S7 149.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.0S9 148.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 17.2S0 151.7E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
THE COMBINED EFFECT OF EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE-INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 32P
(JUSTIN). THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PRIMARILY WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT GAIN IN LATITUDE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS
TIME; HOWEVER, SHOULD TC 32P (JUSTIN) INTENSIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY, THEN A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED.
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS AT 12Z.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6), 090300Z2 (DTG
090153Z8), 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4) AND 091500Z5 (DTG
091353Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970308 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- 17.3S1 151.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 151.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 17.5S3 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 17.7S5 150.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.9S7 149.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 18.1S0 148.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 18.6S5 147.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION 17.4S2 151.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081830Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) AND WILLIS ISL (WMO
94299). INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES SYSTEM MOTION
REMAINS SLOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL-
DEFINED. TC 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL STEERING FLOW IS
EASTERLY; THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8), 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4),
091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970309 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- 17.4S2 151.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 151.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.5S3 150.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.7S5 149.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.9S7 148.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.1S0 148.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.5S4 146.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 17.4S2 150.8E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 082330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 090000Z
SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) AND A
082000Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO
94299). WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
090000Z SURFACE WIND REPORTS AND A SATELLITE-DERIVED
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING 082330Z VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN STEERING FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4), 091500Z5 (DTG
091353Z1), 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7) AND 100300Z4 (DTG
100153Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970309 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- 17.5S3 150.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 150.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 17.6S4 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.8S6 149.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 17.9S7 148.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 18.0S9 148.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 18.0S9 146.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION 17.5S3 150.6E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 090530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090600Z
SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299)
AND AN 090500Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM LIHOU REEF
(WMO 94276). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS USING THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL
AS 090600Z SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS FROM LIHOU REEF.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1), 092100Z2 (DTG
091953Z7), 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0) AND 100900Z0 (DTG
100753Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970309 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 015 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- 17.1S9 151.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 151.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.1S9 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.2S0 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.3S1 149.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 17.4S2 148.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
265 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.6S4 147.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
255 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 17.1S9 150.9E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
A WESTWARD DRIFT OF 1 KNOT. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299) AND LIHOU REEF (WMO 94276). THIS
IS A RELOCATED WARNING BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS
AND SYNOPTIC DATA. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED
AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SYNOPTIC
REPORTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 12Z SYNOPTIC SHIP AND
LAND REPORTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 32P (JUSTIN) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AFTER 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7), 100300Z4 (DTG
100153Z0), 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND 101500Z7 (DTG
101353Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970309 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 016 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- 16.8S5 151.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
410 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 151.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.8S5 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
410 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.9S6 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 17.0S8 149.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 17.1S9 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.2S0 148.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION 16.8S5 151.1E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
WARNING POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 091249Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM WILLIS ISL (WMO
94299) AND LIHOU REEF (WMO 94276). THE WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN CHANGED BASED ON THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0901800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0), 100900Z0 (DTG
100753Z6), 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3) AND 102100Z4 (DTG
101953Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970310 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 16.8S5 151.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 151.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 16.8S5 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.8S5 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.8S5 150.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.8S5 150.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.9S6 149.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
305 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 16.8S5 151.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO
94296) AND WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299). WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING 092330Z SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
092100Z SURFACE PRESSURE REPORT FROM LIHOU REEF. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST. SOME SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JUSTIN IS OVER WARM WATERS AND HAS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6), 101500Z7
(DTG 101353Z3), 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9) AND 110300Z5 (DTG
110153Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
warning 018 not available
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970310 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 16.7S4 151.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 151.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.6S3 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.8S5 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.9S6 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.0S8 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 17.1S9 149.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 16.7S4 151.3E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299)
AND LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296). THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS
LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 32P (JUSTIN) IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS
WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG
101953Z9), 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG
110753Z7) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970310 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- 16.6S3 151.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 151.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.7S4 151.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.8S5 150.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.9S6 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.0S8 150.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION 16.6S3 151.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND
REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299) AND
LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296). THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS LOCATED IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS
WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG
10153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG 11353Z4)
AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970311 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 16.5S2 151.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 151.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.5S2 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.6S3 151.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.6S3 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.5S2 150.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 16.3S0 150.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 16.5S2 151.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASISTATIONARY IN THE
CORAL SEA. CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM LIHOU
REEF (WMO 94296) AND WILLIS ISLAND (WMO 94299). TC 32P IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z2 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS
WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG
110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4), 112100Z5 (DTG
111953Z0) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970311 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- 16.5S2 151.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 151.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.5S2 151.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.4S1 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.3S0 151.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.3S0 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.2S9 149.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 16.5S2 151.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS REMAINED
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WE EXPECT TC 32P
TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A RIDGE FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AUSTRALIAN
CONTINENT PROVIDING SOME WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. TC
32P IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z8 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4),
112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0), 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2) AND
120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970311 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 151.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.5S2 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.5S2 151.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.4S1 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.3S0 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 16.2S9 149.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 16.6S3 151.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TC 32P
HAS DISPLAYED A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT WHICH
CAN BE INFERRED FROM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 32P
LIES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
USUALLY PREDOMINATE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING
FLOW ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, STRONGER THAN USUAL
WESTERLIES EXIST NORTH OF TC 32P AND THE OPPOSING
STEERING FORCE FROM THESE WESTERLIES APPEARS TO BE
ANCHORING TC 32P IN PLACE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THESE WESTERLIES WILL FLUCTUATE
BOTH IN INTENSITY AND PROXIMITY TO TC 32P DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WE EXPECT THE MOTION OF TC 32P TO RESPOND TO
THESE CHANGES BY SLOWLY ACCELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
(THAT IS, IF 2 KNOTS OF MOTION CAN ACTUALLY BE CALLED
ACCELERATING). HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TC 32P AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z5 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0),
120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2), 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8) AND
121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(GAVIN) WARNINGS
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970311 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 151.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.5S2 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.4S1 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.2S9 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.2S9 149.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION 16.6S3 151.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC. IT IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UNDER
NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE WOULD STEER A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS TOWARD THE WEST,
HOWEVER THERE ARE STRONG PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS NORTH
OF TC 32P WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OPPOSING STEERING
FORCE WHICH HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF TC 32P. CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 11/1730Z ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE
PRESENCE OF 45 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC DATA WHICH
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS. WE EXPECT THE
EFFECT OF THE WESTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING TC 32P TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 32P
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 23 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2),
120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5) AND
122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970312 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 16.5S2 151.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 151.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.5S2 151.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.5S2 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.5S2 150.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 16.4S1 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 16.4S1 149.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 16.5S2 151.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE CORAL SEA. THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AT WARNING TIME OF
01 KNOT IS A REFLECTION OF BOTH THE WOBBLE OF THE STORM
CENTER AS WELL AS OUR UNCERTAINTY AS TO ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND IS NOT AN INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOTION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TC 32P HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
SHOWN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WE EXPECT TC 32P
TO CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GALE WIND RADII CONTINUE TO BE LARGE IN
AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC DATA AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SHRINK SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STEERING
FLOW REMAINS WEAK AS THE WESTWARD STEERING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COMBATS THE EASTWARD STEERING OF THE
EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST. WE EXPECT THE RIDGE TO
BUILD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR THE EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SLOW
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF TC 32P BEYOND 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5),
122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
warning 026 not available
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970312 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 16.3S0 151.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 151.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.2S9 151.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.0S7 151.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 15.9S5 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 15.8S4 150.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 15.6S2 149.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 16.3S0 151.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS DRIFTING NORTH VERY
SLOWLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN. IT HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS PROBABLY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF 45 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 3.0)
AT 121130Z8. TC 32P REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF OVERALL WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TC 32P HAS
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ONLY CHANGE IS A FORECAST
OF VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1),
130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3), 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9) AND
131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970312 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- 15.9S5 151.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 151.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 15.5S1 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.4S0 149.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
320 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.2S8 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
315 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.2S8 148.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 15.2S8 147.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION 15.8S4 150.8E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AT 121730Z4
INDICATING 45 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 3.0). THE CURRENT
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN,
BUT IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (WMO
94299). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS
21 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3),
130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9), 131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6) AND
132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970313 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- 15.6S2 151.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
310 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 151.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 15.4S0 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
310 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 15.3S9 151.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
310 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 15.2S8 151.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
305 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 15.2S8 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 15.2S8 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 15.5S1 151.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING NORTH AT 03
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 122300Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC
REPORT FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299). THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING 122330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS BEEN AND IS CURRENTLY
QUASI-STATIONARY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY USING 121800Z SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS.
A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P REMAINS IN WEAK NET
STEERING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. AFTER 36 HOURS,
THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE JUSTIN TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WEST AT
THAT TIME. JUSTIN IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS SLOWLY WEAKENING. THAT TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9), 131500Z0 (DTG
131353Z6), 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2) AND 140300Z8 (DTG
140153Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970313 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 030 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- 14.8S3 153.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
300 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 153.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.9S4 153.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
300 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.2S8 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
300 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.3S9 153.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 15.3S9 152.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.3S9 151.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION 14.8S3 153.4E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN 130530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING
130530Z SATELLITE DATA AND A 130500Z SURFACE WIND REPORT
FROM WILLIS SHOALS (WMO 94299). JUSTIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING
AND HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES
WEAKEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6), 132100Z7 (DTG
131953Z2), 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4) AND 140900Z4 (DTG
140753Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
warning 031 not available
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970313 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- 14.8S3 153.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 153.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.9S4 153.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.0S6 154.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 15.3S9 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 15.5S1 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 15.8S4 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION 14.8S3 153.7E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A
WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM AS A
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND
AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4), 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0),
141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970314 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 033 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- 14.6S1 153.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 153.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 14.4S9 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.6S1 153.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 14.9S4 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION 14.5S0 153.4E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED
BASED ON 132330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING 122330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS OF 30 TO 34 KNOTS CURRENTLY
EXIST BOTH WELL TO THE NORTH AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
JUSTIN IN TWO SEPARATE AREAS. THE NORTHERNMOST AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES AND THE
SOUTHERNMOST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST
TRADES, RESPECTIVELY. JUSTIN HAS BEEN AND REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN AND THAT TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7),
142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970314 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 034 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- 13.7S1 152.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 152.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 13.1S5 152.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 12.6S9 153.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 12.7S0 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION 13.6S0 152.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON 140530Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
TURN TO THE SOUTH WHEN FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8 (DTG
141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5) AND 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970314 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- 13.0S4 152.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 152.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 12.8S1 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.8S1 153.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 13.0S4 153.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 13.6S0 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.6S1 153.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 13.0S4 152.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT. CURRENT WIND RADII AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE DUE
TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
CYCLONE-INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OUR
PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND
SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG
141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1) AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970314 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- 12.9S2 153.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 153.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 12.8S1 153.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 12.8S1 153.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 13.2S6 154.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 13.8S2 153.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.9S4 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION 12.9S2 153.1E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE-INDUCED RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST
EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1), 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8) AND 152100Z9 (DTG
151953Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970315 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- 12.5S8 154.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 154.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.5S8 154.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 13.0S4 154.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 13.6S0 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.2S7 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.8S3 153.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 12.5S8 154.1E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEW GUINEA TRACKING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON A 141919Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY AND WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS SURROUNDING TC 32P. WE EXPECT TC
32P TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
THEN BEGIN TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z6 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION (DTG 142334Z7). NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5
(DTG 150753Z1), 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8), 152100Z9 (DTG
151953Z4) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970315 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- 12.2S5 154.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 154.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 12.2S5 155.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 12.9S2 155.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 13.3S7 154.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 13.8S2 154.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.6S1 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION 12.2S5 154.8E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS TRACKING TO THE EAST AT
06 KNOTS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEW GUINEA. CURRENT
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON 150530Z4
SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2
IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR
TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION (DTG 142334Z7). NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2
(DTG 151353Z8), 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4), 160300Z0 (DTG
160153Z6) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970315 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- 11.7S9 155.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 155.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 11.7S9 156.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 12.0S3 156.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 12.4S7 156.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 12.9S2 156.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
165 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.7S1 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION 11.7S9 155.7E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 151130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS
INDICATING 55 KNOT WINDS. WIND RADII AT WARNING TIME ARE
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WIND RADII ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH
CURRENT SYNOPTIC LAND AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NO RECENT
MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETRY DATA WAS AVAILABLE FOR
ANALYSIS FOR THIS WARNING. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT SLOW ITS FORWARD
MOTION IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING BUILDING BETWEEN IT AND TC
33P WHICH IS MOVING AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. NUMERICAL
MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF
NEW CALEDONIA WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER TC 32P SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH OF TC 32P IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HINDER GOOD
OUTFLOW AND THUS SLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4), 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6),
160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970315 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 040
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- 11.8S0 155.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 155.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 11.8S0 156.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 12.0S3 156.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 12.4S7 156.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.8S1 156.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.6S0 156.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION 11.8S0 155.8E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS. IT HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 151630Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF 65
KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T4.0). WIND RADII AT WARNING TIME
HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DUE TO OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS VKAA
AND PCDE WHICH REPORTED WINDS OF 35 AND 40 KNOTS
RESPECTIVELY. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK. STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z5 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS
WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG
160153Z6), 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2), 161500Z3 (DTG
161353Z9) AND 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970316 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 12.2S5 156.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 156.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 12.4S7 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 12.8S1 156.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 13.4S8 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.0S5 156.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.8S3 155.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 12.2S5 156.1E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 32P HAS LOST SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS PUSHED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON THIS PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CLEARLY VISIBLE IN BOTH MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
AS WELL AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS PREVIOUS WARNINGS. ALTHOUGH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE (PERSISTANCE BLENDED WITH CLIMATOLOGY) WOULD
TAKE THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AUSTRALIAN COAST, AND AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER- AND MID-LEVEL LOW ARE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT AT THIS TIME (AS SHOWN
BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY), WE BELIEVE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG AND TC 32PWILL
REMAIN UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE, GRADUALLY BEGINNING
TO WORK ITS WAY BACK TOWARDS THE WEST LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z7 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS
FOR TANDEM THRUST 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION (DTG 152334Z8). NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6
(DTG 160753Z2), 161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9), 162100Z0 (DTG
161953Z5) AND 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970316 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- 12.2S5 155.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 155.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 12.4S7 156.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 12.7S0 156.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 13.1S5 156.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 13.6S0 155.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.4S9 155.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION 12.2S5 155.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS STALLED (AGAIN) IN THE
CORAL SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND MOVED
BACK OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR AS OUTFLOW ON
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM IS RESTRICTED. FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 32P
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH
BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WE DON=T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND
AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST 97 (DTG 152334Z8) FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9), 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5),
170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7) AND 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970316 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- 12.2S5 156.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 156.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 12.2S5 156.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 12.3S6 157.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 12.6S9 157.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.1S5 157.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 13.6S0 157.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 12.2S5 156.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. IT HAS FLUCTUATED IN INTENSITY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL AND WIND SHEAR
EFFECTS. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO FLUCTUATE UPWARD IN
INTENSITY AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPCOMING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD COMBINED WITH DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED,
HOWEVER, DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING
INDICATED BY NUMERICAL MODELS AT AND BEYOND 24 HOURS. AN
ABUNDANCE OF DYNAMICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE TC 32P SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY,
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA WHICH MAY
ENHANCE A PRE-ESTABLISHED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS TOWARD WHICH TC 32P MAY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
IN THE LONGER RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z0 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS
WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG
161953Z5), 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7), 170900Z7 (DTG
170753Z3) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970316 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- 12.9S2 155.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 155.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 13.5S9 155.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.0S5 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.5S0 154.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 14.9S4 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 15.5S1 152.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION 13.1S5 155.8E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS TURNED TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING AT 05 KNOTS. DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS TC 32P DEVELOPED A RAGGED, 40 NM DIAMETER CLOUD
FILLED EYE. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 16730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 75 KNOT
WINDS (DVORAK T4.5). WE ARE REASONABLY CONFIDENT THIS
SYSTEM HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO GOOD
POSITIONS SUPPORTED BY RECENT EYE FIXES AND SCATTEROMETRY
DURING SATELLITE ECLIPSE OPERATIONS. INDICATIONS THAT
THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO FILL ALREADY SUPPORT A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS
25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR
TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7),
170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3), 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0) AND
172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970317 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 045
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- 12.7S0 155.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 155.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 13.0S4 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 13.3S7 154.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.7S1 153.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.1S6 153.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 14.7S2 152.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION 12.8S1 155.3E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
162330Z5 SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SHOWING 65 KNOT WINDS
(DVORAK T4.0). THE INTENSITY OF TC 32P SEEMS TO BE
OSCILLATING, BUT IN THE MEAN WE BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN AROUND 60-65 KNOTS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS
WARNINGS AND WE ARE FORECASTING TC 32P TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND TC 32P MAY BEGIN TO SLOW BEYOND 48
HOURS. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 161236Z9
SCATTEROMETRY PASS AND AVAILABLE SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE AN EXTRAPOLATION OF OUR CURRENT
WIND RADII. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8
IS 25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR
TANDEM THRUST 97 (DTG 162334Z9) FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3),
171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0), 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6) AND
180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970317 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- 12.4S7 155.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 155.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.4S7 155.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.9S2 154.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.4S8 154.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.1S6 153.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION 12.4S7 155.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS IN THE
CORAL SEA. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY (DVORALK T4.0) AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 162330Z5 SCATTEROMETRY PASS. CURRENT
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MENTI
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970317 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 12.4S7 155.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 155.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 12.4S7 154.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.6S9 154.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.9S2 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
215 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 13.4S8 153.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
215 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.6S1 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
215 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 12.4S7 155.1E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS. IT IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW
INDUCED BY THE RIDGE. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF 171130Z3 WHICH
INDICATED 75 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T4.5). A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXISTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 32P,
AND WE EXPECT TC 32P TO TURN TOWARD IT DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MODULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY AN
APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY 72
HOURS AS TC 32P APPROACHES IT. MOST AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL,
CLIMATOLOGICAL, AND STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE TOOLS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC
32P, BUT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND
ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6), 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8),
180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4) AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970317 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- 12.4S7 154.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
210 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 154.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.4S7 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
215 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.6S9 153.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
220 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.1S5 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
220 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 13.8S2 153.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
220 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 15.2S8 152.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
220 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION 12.4S7 154.7E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. IT HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND NOW HAS A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. OUR
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 171730Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS OF 90 KNOTS (DVORAK T5.0,
ALMOST A T5.5). THE EYE DIAMETER IS CURRENTLY 27 NM. TC
32P IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
IS A REGION OF WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE FORECAST
TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WE EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY, OR WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY, DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY AGAIN DURING THE 12 TO 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 24 HOURS TC 32P IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE A VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR EFFECTS DIMINISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z7 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS
WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG
180153Z8), 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4), 181500Z5 (DTG
181353Z1) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970318 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 049 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- 11.9S1 155.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 155.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.0S3 155.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.5S8 155.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 12.9S2 155.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 13.3S7 154.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 14.1S6 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
260 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 11.9S1 155.5E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 20 NM DIAMETER
EYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS).
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY BASED ON SYNOPTIC
SHIP REPORTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS. THE SYSTEM=S MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
LATITUDE AND MOVE SOUTHWARDS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSIFIES AND A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25
FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM
THRUST 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4), 181500Z5 (DTG
181353Z1), 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND 190300Z3 (DTG
190153Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970318 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- 11.9S1 155.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 155.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.0S3 155.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.3S6 155.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.7S0 154.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 13.2S6 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 14.2S7 152.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
260 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION 11.9S1 155.3E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
SYSTEM DISPLAYS A CLOUD-FILLED, 30 NM DIAMETER EYE.
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T5.0 (90) KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS IN RESPONSE
TO NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 24
FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM
THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1), 182100Z2 (DTG
181953Z7), 190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9) AND 190900Z9 (DTG
190753Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970318 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 051
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- 11.9S1 155.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 155.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.0S3 154.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 12.2S5 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 12.5S8 154.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 12.9S2 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 13.5S9 152.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION 11.9S1 155.0E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
181130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS MAINTAINED
ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
CURRENTLY POSSESSES A 25 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS
25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM
THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7), 190300Z3 (DTG
190153Z9), 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5) AND 191500Z6 (DTG
191353Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970318 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 052
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- 12.1S4 154.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 154.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.5S8 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.8S1 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 13.1S5 153.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 13.5S9 152.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 14.4S9 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION 12.2S5 154.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181700Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS
USING THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AFTER 12 HOURS. THE PROGNOSTIC
REASONING FOR THE STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE SAME AS
THAT FOR THE PREVIOUS WARNING EXCEPT THE STEERING FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9), 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5),
191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2) AND 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970319 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 053
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 12.3S6 153.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 153.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 12.7S0 151.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 13.4S8 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.5S0 149.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 15.9S5 149.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 18.6S5 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 12.4S7 153.0E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS
LOST ITS EYE, BUT REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM. WARNING
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS, IS BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBER OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS). EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
AS THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. HOWEVER, SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME, EXCEPT THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. THE SYSTEM=S TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. OUR
PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 27 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5),
191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2), 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8) AND
200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970319 09:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 054A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- 12.6S9 153.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 153.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.8S1 152.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 12.9S2 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 13.5S9 150.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 14.4S9 149.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 16.0S7 149.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
250 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION 12.6S9 153.1E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT APPROXIMATELY 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER
OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS), AND A WEAKENING TREND WHICH IS
APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING WIND SHEAR FROM
THE EAST AND DISPLAYS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED DUE TO
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS
WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG
191353Z2), 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8), 200300Z5 (DTG
200153Z1) AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7). JUSTIFICATION:
CORRECTS NUMBER OF ACTIVE STORMS//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970319 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 055
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 12.9S2 152.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 152.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 13.2S6 152.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 13.6S0 151.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
260 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 14.2S7 150.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 14.9S4 149.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 16.4S1 148.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 13.0S4 152.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
191130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED 56 NAUTICAL MILES TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ACCORDINGLY, JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
COURSE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. A MODERATE
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO HAS JUSTIN
BECOMING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
WEAKENING EVEN MORE RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
JUSTIN WOULD THEN BE GOVERNED BY SHALLOWER STEERING FLOW
THAN IS NOW THE CASE. THIS WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO
STEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE
97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8), 200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1),
200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970319 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 056
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- 13.4S8 152.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
200 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 152.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.0S5 151.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 14.6S1 150.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 15.2S8 149.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 15.9S5 149.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 17.2S0 148.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 13.6S0 152.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
191730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII TO
THE NORTH, EAST, AND SOUTH ARE BASED ON 191236Z SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. CURRENT WIND RADII IN THE WEST
QUADRANT ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE SCATTEROMETRY
DATA. JUSTIN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED 186 NM WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO MAINTAINED STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE EAST. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE
97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1), 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7),
201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970320 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- 14.1S6 151.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 151.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.2S8 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 16.1S8 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 16.9S6 148.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 17.4S2 148.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 17.9S7 147.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION 14.4S9 151.1E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 09
KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
202330Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 55 KNOTS (DVORAK
CI3.5). TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MEDIUM PROBABILITY ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG AND
TC 32P MOVES ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE THAN FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR DERIVED UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS SHOW THAT TC 32P IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 32P TO
WEAKEN TO A 45 KNOT SYSTEM BY THE 24-HOUR POINT AN
REMAIN STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT AS TC 32P MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTO AN AREA OF
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT TC 32P WILL REINTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST
EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7), 201500Z8 (DTG
201353Z4), 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0) AND 210300Z6 (DTG
210153Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970320 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 058
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- 14.7S2 150.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 150.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 15.7S3 149.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 16.6S3 148.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 17.2S0 148.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 17.7S5 147.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 18.3S2 146.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION 15.0S6 150.5E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 08
KNOTS TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. TC 32P IS NOW AN
EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
HAS LOST ALMOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS
STILL HEAVY EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THIS SYSTEM
AS SHOWN BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR
DERIVED WINDS. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND A 200002Z4
SCATTEROMETRY PASS FROM THE NEW NASA SCATTEROMETER. WE
EXPECT TC 32P TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE INTENSITY SCENARIO
HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR RELAXING ON TC 32P AND THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY LONGER THAN FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST
EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4), 202100Z5 (DTG
201953Z0), 210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2) AND 210900Z2 (DTG
210753Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970320 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 059
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- 15.0S6 149.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 149.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 16.0S7 148.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 17.0S8 146.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 17.5S3 145.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 17.9S7 144.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION 15.3S9 149.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS VERY
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII BASED ON
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND A 200002Z4 NASA SCATTEROMETER
PASS. TC 32P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKEN, MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN
36 HOURS. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND IN
48 HOURS. TC 32P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A DOMINANT
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT NEARS
LANDFALL DUE TO AN APPROACHING WEAK AREA. A LOW-
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE INTENSITY SCENARIO HAS THE UPPER-
LEVEL SHEAR RELAXING ON TC 32P, RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0),210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2), 210900Z2
(DTG 210753Z8) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970320 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 060
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- 15.3S9 149.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 149.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 16.3S0 147.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 17.1S9 146.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 17.5S3 145.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 18.2S1 145.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION 15.5S1 148.7E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS. POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES ON A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND A 1200Z
NASA SCATTEROMETER PASS. CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. TC 32P IS BEING
STEERED BY A DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY
ALTERNATE SCENARIO HAS THE SYSTEM TURNING SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND
REINTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST
EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2), 210900Z2 (DTG
210753Z8), 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5) AND 212100Z6 (DTG
211953Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970321 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 061
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- 15.4S0 148.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 148.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 15.7S3 146.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 16.3S0 145.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 17.0S8 144.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION 15.5S1 147.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.
THERE IS CURRENTLY HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST
OUTER BAND OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT NO SERIOUS
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT TC 32P WILL REMAIN ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TO
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 200753Z8),
201500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5) 212100Z (DTG 211953Z1), AND
220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970321 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 062
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- 15.5S1 147.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 147.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 15.8S4 146.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 16.6S3 146.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 17.5S3 145.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION 15.6S2 147.6E8
TC 32P (JUSTIN) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED IN PART ON A 210530Z1 SATELLITE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS SHOWING 45 KNOTS (DVORAK T2.5/3.0) AND
PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS THE
SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 32P TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD
COURSE, MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND. MOST OF OUR DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO. WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS
INTERACT WITH LAND AND BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR FROM THE
AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. HOWEVER, THE REDUCTION IN
UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS VS. YESTERDAY=S
40 KNOTS) AS TC 32P GETS CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, THE WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(CAUSED BY THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CONTINENT), AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
THIS FRONT BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS, HAS LED US TO A LOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE
SCENARIO. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TC 32P DOES NOT
WEAKEN AS FORECAST AND TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN ALONG
THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY
CLIMATOLOGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9
IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR
TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5),
212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1), 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3) AND
220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970321 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 063
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- 15.6S2 147.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 147.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 16.0S7 147.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 16.5S2 146.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 17.0S8 146.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 17.5S3 146.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 18.5S4 146.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION 15.7S3 147.4E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED AN AREA
OF WEAK STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS BREAK IS AT THE TRAILING END OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT THE
CYCLONE SOUTHWARD, CORRESPONDING TO AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS WARNINGS. ALL DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUPPORTING SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE SURFACE
RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P HAS MOVED UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER, HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH LAND
SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LOWER VERTICAL
SHEAR AND WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INFARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, RESULTING IN HIGHER
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY ALL SATELLITE FIXING SITES.
WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN ACTUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN HOLDING THE
WARNING INTENSITY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED NATURE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATE
SCENARIO HAS THE CYCLONE CONTINUING WESTWARD PAST THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATING OVER LAND AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211200Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1),
220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3), 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9)
AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970321 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 064
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- 16.2S9 147.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 147.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 17.1S9 146.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 18.0S9 146.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 18.9S8 146.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 19.8S8 146.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 20.8S0 147.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION 16.4S1 146.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
5 KNOTS. POSITION BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE, RADAR,
AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TURN SOUTHWARD
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
THROUGH A WEAK AREA IN THE RIDGE. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST DUE TO THE CYCLONE ENTERING WARMER WATER AND
AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER, INTERACTION
WITH LAND WILL INHIBIT MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE MORE SHARPLY THAN
FORECAST, RESULTING IN CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER
WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18
FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM
THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3), 220900Z3 (DTG
220753Z9), 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6) AND 222100Z7 (DTG
221953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970322 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 065
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z4 --- 16.8S5 146.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 146.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 17.7S5 145.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 18.6S5 144.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 19.6S6 145.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 21.0S3 146.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION 17.0S8 145.8E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM CAIRNS (WMO 94287) AND GREEN ISL (WMO 95289) AS
WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 212330Z. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM GREEN ISL. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AS
IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. AFTERWARDS,
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH THE GREGORY RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVERLAND. A
SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS; HOWEVER, SHOULD THE SYSTEM WEAKEN
MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANTICIPATED, THEN WESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW LAYER FLOW IS POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO HIGH SEAS AND WINDS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST
EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9), 221500Z0 (DTG
221353Z6), 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2) AND 230300Z8 (DTG
230153Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970322 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 066
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- 17.0S8 145.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 145.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 17.7S5 144.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 18.8S7 143.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 20.0S2 143.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION 17.2S0 145.0E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0
(45 KNOTS) AND A WEAKENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE GREGORY RANGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE
97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6), 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2),
230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4) AND 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970322 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 067
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z7 --- 17.1S9 144.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 144.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 17.8S6 144.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 18.9S8 143.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 20.3S5 144.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION 17.3S1 144.7E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 221130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221140Z RADAR
REPORT FROM CAIRNS (WMO 94287). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM GREEN
ISLAND (WMO 95289) AND LOW ISLES (WMO 94285). JUSTIN HAS
CONTINUED MOVING INLAND AND WEAKENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER.
THE 35 KNOT WIND RADIUS IS CONFIRMED USING A 221200Z 37
KNOT WIND REPORT FROM GREEN ISLAND (WMO 95289). TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTH INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH.
JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND BECOME
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2),
230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4), 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0) AND
231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970322 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 068
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- 17.5S3 144.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 144.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 18.4S3 144.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 19.5S5 144.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION 17.7S5 144.6E
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
221730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 221800Z RADAR
DATA. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A
SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE
SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOVE AND SURFACE WIND REPORTS
FROM GREEN ISLAND (WMO 95289). THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER
WATER. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4),
230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970323 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 069
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z5 --- 17.8S6 144.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 144.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 18.5S4 144.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 19.1S1 145.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 19.8S8 145.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION 18.0S9 144.8E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE GREGORY RANGE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD DIRECTION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A 40 KNOT
INTENSITY, HOWEVER, HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH 24 HOURS
AS GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST
EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0), 231500Z1 (DTG
231353Z7), 232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3) AND 240300Z9 (DTG
240153Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970323 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 070
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- 18.3S2 145.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 145.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 19.0S0 146.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 19.8S8 147.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 20.5S7 148.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 21.5S8 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 23.1S6 154.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION 18.5S4 145.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM CARDWELL (WMO 94292), SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
230530Z, AND RADAR DATA FROM TOWNSVILLE (WMO 94294). THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT REMAINS OVERLAND. BY 48 HOURS, THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATER AND
REINTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A
STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE
97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7), 232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3),
240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5) AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970323 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 071
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- 18.7S6 146.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 146.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 19.3S3 148.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 20.0S2 149.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 20.7S9 151.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 153.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 22.6S0 158.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION 18.8S7 146.7E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231100Z
SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM CARDWELL (WMO 94292) AND
LUCINDA POINT (WMO 94295), SUPPLEMENTED BY A 231200Z
RADAR REPORT FROM TOWNSVILLE (WMO 94294) AND A 231130Z
SATELLITE FIX USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE SAME
SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED
AND HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER NEAR INGHAM. THIS, AND
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN FORECAST INTENSITY FOR JUSTIN DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS, JUSTIN IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GENERAL MOTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL CYCLONE
32P IS STEERED TO THE EAST BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET.
REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST
EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3), 240300Z9 (DTG
240153Z5), 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1) AND 241500Z2 (DTG
241353Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970323 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 072
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- 18.9S8 146.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 146.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 19.4S4 148.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 20.0S2 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 20.6S8 152.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 21.3S6 154.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 22.6S0 158.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION 19.0S0 147.3E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON A 231700Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM TOWNSVILLE (WMO
94294), AS WELL AS A 231820Z RADAR REPORT FROM TOWNSVILLE
AND 231730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE (DVORAK 3.0). JUSTIN IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN.
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS
14 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM
THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5), 240900Z5 (DTG
240753Z1), 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8) AND 242100Z9 (DTG
241953Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970324 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 073
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- 19.5S5 147.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 147.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 20.1S3 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 20.7S9 150.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 21.3S6 151.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 21.9S2 152.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION 19.7S7 148.2E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 09 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM=S
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 232330Z DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBER 3.0 (45 KNOTS). VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SHEARING DUE TO STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
EASTWARD. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR
TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1),
241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8), 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4) AND
250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970324 09:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 074A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- 19.7S7 148.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 148.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 20.5S7 150.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 21.5S8 152.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 22.5S9 153.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 23.4S9 154.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION 19.9S9 149.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON SYNOPTIC DATA AT 05Z FROM BOWEN (WMO 94366) AND HOOK
REEF. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-BASED
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS). NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE
97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8), 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4),
250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2).
JUSTIFICATION: ADDED COMMENT TO THE 48 HOUR POSIT, DISSIPATED
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970324 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 075 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- 20.0S2 149.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 149.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 20.6S8 150.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 151.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION 20.2S4 149.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED
BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM HOOK REEF AND
HAMILTON ISLAND (WMO 94368). THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS USING 241130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
MOTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IT WILL REMAIN IN STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. JUSTIN HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
SHEARED 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS
FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4),
250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970324 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 076
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- 20.6S8 150.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 150.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 21.5S8 151.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 18 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
18 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 21.9S2 152.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 20.8S0 150.5E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 241730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM CREAL REEF (WMO 94371) AND MACKAY
(WMO 94367). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN CONTINUES
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE
97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 970325 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 077 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- 20.7S9 150.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 150.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 151.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION 20.9S1 150.8E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY DUE TO INTENSE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND SHEAR
WHICH HAS SEPARATED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BY OVER 100 NM. THE REMNANTS OF
TC 32P ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WARNING HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO
REFLECT SLOWER ALONG TRACK PROGRESS THAN INDICATED BY
FIXES TAKEN DURING THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
|
Document: justin.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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