Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone LINDSAY [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]

WTXS21 PGTW 960710 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101451Z JUL 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S4 91.3E3 TO 17.3S1 90.5E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101335Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S6 91.1E1.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:  A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BENEATH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRESENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS).
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 111500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 960710 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- 14.3S8 91.2E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 91.2E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 16.2S9 91.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 18.0S9 92.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 19.9S9 93.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 21.7S0 95.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION 14.8S3   91.3E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.
TC01S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION DUE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG
110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 960711 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) WARNING NR 002 FINAL
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- 12.8S1 92.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 92.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 13.6S0 93.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 14.4S9 94.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 13.0S4 92.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOLER
WATER AND IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.