[Index]
Tropical Cyclone PHIL
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone PHIL [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS31 PGTW 961223 21:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- 12.9S2 139.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 139.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 13.7S1 141.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.6S1 142.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.5S1 143.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 16.4S1 145.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION 13.1S5 140.2E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P HAS RAPIDLY FORMED IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. TC 12P IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF A CLEARLY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 999 MB (31 KNOTS). OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9) AND 242100Z9 (DTG
241951Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS
14 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IS
CORRECTED TO READ SOUTHEASTWARD.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961224 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- 14.4S9 139.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 139.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 15.2S8 139.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.9S5 138.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 16.5S2 138.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 17.0S8 138.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION 14.6S1 139.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TC 12P) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH IN THE GULF O
F CARPENTARIA AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS RELOCATED BASED ON 2405
30Z VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SAME VIS
IBLE SATELLITE DATA. TC 12P HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGT
HENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERAT
E UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST WHICH IS INHIBITING INTENSIFICA
TION. THE FORECAST FOR TC 12P IS CHANGED TO REFLECT STEERING FLOW WITH
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. TC 12P IS EXPE
CTED TO GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECA
ST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 09 FEET. REFE
R TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961224 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- 14.1S6 138.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 138.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 14.4S9 138.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 14.8S3 136.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 15.0S6 135.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.1S7 133.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 14.2S7 138.7E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(TC 12P) IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA. WE EXPECT TC 12P TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
UNTIL MAKING FORECASTED LANDFALL IN 36 HOURS. TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND REMAIN ON A WESTWARD
TRACK AND MAY POSSIBLY REINTENSIFY SHOULD IT MAKE IT BACK
OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961225 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- 13.0S4 139.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 139.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 13.3S7 139.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 13.8S2 138.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.1S6 138.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.5S0 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION 13.1S5 139.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TC 12P) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION
IS RELOCATED BASED ON 250053Z SATELLITE SCATTEROMETRY
DATA AND 250530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5) AND 260900Z7
(DTG 260753Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961225 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- 13.2S6 139.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 139.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 13.4S8 138.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 13.5S9 137.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.8S2 137.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 13.9S3 136.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION 13.2S6 138.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WE BELIEVE TC 12P WILL NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER DUE
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRESENTLY ON THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG 260753Z3) AND
262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961226 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- 13.3S7 135.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 135.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 13.2S6 133.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.2S6 131.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 13.5S9 129.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 13.7S1 127.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION 13.3S7 135.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. IT HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
WESTERN COASTLINE OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERRITORY, PASSING SOUTH OF DARWIN. IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE TIMOR SEA WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6) AND 270900Z8
(DTG 270753Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z4 IS 14 FEET IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 961226 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- 13.6S0 133.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 133.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.7S1 131.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 13.9S3 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.2S7 127.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 14.9S4 124.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION 13.6S0 132.8E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS. PHIL IS WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES LAND. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE TIMOR SEA. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG
270753Z4) AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 14 FEET IN THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. FUTURE BULLETINS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE REFERRED TO AS WTXS31 PGTW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
BASIN. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961227 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- 13.7S1 128.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 128.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 13.9S3 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.6S1 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 15.4S0 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 16.3S0 118.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 13.7S1 127.9E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) HAS CROSSED INTO THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN WARNING BASIN. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
WARNING, TC 12P WILL NOW BE ADDRESSED BY WARNINGS UNDER
THE WTXS31 BULLETIN HEADER (FORMERLY WTPS31). TC 12P IS
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND REORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT SHOULD BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2
(DTG 271953Z7) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961227 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- 15.2S8 126.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 126.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 16.0S7 123.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.5S2 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 17.4S2 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 18.6S5 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION 15.4S0 125.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER AND TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9
(DTG 280753Z5) AND 282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961228 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- 15.5S1 123.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 123.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.3S0 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 17.2S0 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.9S7 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.5S4 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 20.2S4 110.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 15.7S3 122.8E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 129 (PHIL) CONTINUES TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
(45 KNOTS) ARE BASED ON 272330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. PHIL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WATER AND IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PHIL IS ALSO FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION
AS STEERING FLOW WEAKENS TOWARD 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281353Z2) AND 290300Z4 (DTG
290153Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961228 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- 15.7S3 123.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 123.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.5S2 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 17.2S0 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.9S7 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 18.6S5 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 20.1S3 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION 15.9S5 122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. PHIL IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO OPEN WATERS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8) AND 290900Z0 (DTG
290753Z6).//
=========================================================================
warning 012 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961228 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- 15.3S9 120.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 120.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 15.9S5 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 16.5S2 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 17.2S0 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 18.1S0 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 19.9S9 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION 15.4S0 119.9E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA TRACKING TO THE WEST AT 15
KNOTS. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
WARNINGS. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND FOLLOW A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG
290753Z6) AND 291500Z8 (DTG 291353Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961229 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 15.3S9 119.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 119.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 15.6S2 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 16.1S8 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 16.8S5 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 17.8S6 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 20.1S3 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 15.4S0 118.9E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
282330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS
WARNING. PHIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS
FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG
291353Z3) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961229 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- 15.2S8 118.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 118.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 15.5S1 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 16.0S7 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 16.6S3 111.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 17.4S2 109.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 19.0S0 105.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION 15.3S9 117.5E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE PHIL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
290530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. PHIL IS NOW FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO
MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3),
292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2), AND
300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961229 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 016 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 15.3S9 119.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 119.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 15.4S0 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 15.8S4 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.3S0 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 16.8S5 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 108.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 15.3S9 118.9E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA MOVING AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, SURFACE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM WMO 94207 (ROWLEY SHOALS), AND A
290950Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY ANALYSIS BY AIR FORCE GLOBAL
WEATHER CENTRAL. THE WARNING RELOCATION WAS DRIVEN BY
THIS MICROWAVE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC
DATA. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE DERIVED FROM THE ABOVE
MENTIONED MICROWAVE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON TC 12P WHICH SHOULD ACT TO
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE EXPECT A
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. TC 12P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9) AND
300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961229 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- 15.3S9 118.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 118.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 15.5S1 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.9S5 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.4S1 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.2S0 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.4S4 107.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION 15.3S9 118.4E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. WE
EXPECT TC 12P TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6
(DTG 300153Z2) AND 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961230 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 15.3S9 118.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 118.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 15.5S1 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 15.9S5 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 16.5S2 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.2S0 113.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.8S7 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 15.3S9 118.1E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF 292102Z AND 292330Z SATELLITE IMAGERY. PHIL
IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH 48 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY. SPEED OF
MOTION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P IS LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
WARNING TO REFLECT WEAKER STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8), 301500Z9 (DTG
301353Z5), 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1), AND 310300Z7 (DTG
310153Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961230 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 019 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- 17.1S9 117.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 117.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 17.8S6 116.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 18.5S4 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 19.5S5 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 20.4S6 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 21.4S7 109.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION 17.3S1 117.4E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 06 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IDENTIFIED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AS WELL AS SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM ROWLEY
SHOALS (WMO 94207). WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 30/0232Z AND
30/0530Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. PHIL HAS
ENCOUNTERED UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS SHEARED THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AWAY FROM MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ACCORDINGLY, THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE
BEEN REDUCED, AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT A LOWER STEERING LEVEL. PHIL IS STILL FORECAST TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG
301353Z5), 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1), 310300Z7 (DTG
310153Z3), AND 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961230 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- 17.5S3 117.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 117.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.5S4 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 19.4S4 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 20.2S4 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 20.9S1 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 21.9S2 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 17.8S6 117.0E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY UNDER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON
THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AFTER WHICH TIME TC 12P
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WE EXPECT TC 12P TO TRACK GENERALLY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA INCLUDING WMO 94207 (ROWLEY
SHOALS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1),
310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), AND
311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961230 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- 17.4S2 116.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 116.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 17.9S7 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 18.6S5 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 19.3S3 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 20.1S3 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 21.5S8 108.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION 17.5S3 116.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND SUBSEQUENT MOTION ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE FIXES USING INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THIS MOTION ALSO AGREES WITH THE
CORRESPONDING PRESSURE RISE AT ROWLEY SHOALS (WMO 94207)
EVEN THOUGH THIS STATION IS APPROACHING THEIR DIURNAL
PRESSURE MINIMUM. WIND SPEEDS AT ROWLEY SHOALS HAVE
LESSENED BUT NOT CHANGED DIRECTION, FURTHER INCREASING
OUR CONFIDENCE IN OUR CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION.
CURRENT WIND RADII ARE CONSISTENT WITH A AFGWC MICROWAVE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS WELL AS AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. WE
EXPECT TC 12P TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG
310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG
311353Z6) AND 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961231 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- 17.5S3 115.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 115.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.9S7 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.5S4 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.1S1 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.8S8 110.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.5S8 107.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 17.6S4 115.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 12P
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL SHEAR AND TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG
311353Z6), 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2) AND 010300Z4 (DTG
010153Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 31/0000Z4
IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961231 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- 17.5S3 115.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 115.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.8S6 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.1S0 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.6S5 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.3S3 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 21.0S3 110.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION 17.6S4 115.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUING TO IMPINGE UPON THE SYSTEM. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6), 312100Z7 (DTG
311953Z2), 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0) AND 010900Z0 (DTG
010753Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 31/0600Z0
IS 17 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961231 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- 17.7S5 115.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 115.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.0S9 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.4S3 113.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.8S7 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 19.4S4 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 20.7S9 110.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION 17.8S6 115.1E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG
311951Z0), 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8), 010900Z0 (DTG
010751Z4) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 16 FEET.//
=========================================================================
warning 025 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970101 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- 17.5S3 113.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 113.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 17.4S2 111.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 17.6S4 110.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 18.0S9 109.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 18.7S6 107.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.2S4 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 17.5S3 112.9E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 12P CONTINUES
TO BE HINDERED BY UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. TC 12P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 72-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6),
011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3), 012100Z4 (DTG 011953Z9) AND
020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970101 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- 17.6S4 111.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 111.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.2S1 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.1S1 107.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 20.1S3 105.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 21.3S6 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION 17.8S6 111.4E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 12P CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A TOTALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE
SYSTEM. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED NEAR
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7
(DTG 011353Z3), 012100Z4(DTG 011953Z9), 020300Z5 (DTG
020153Z1) AND 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 01/0600Z IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970101 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- 17.7S5 111.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 111.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.0S9 109.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 18.4S3 107.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 18.8S7 105.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 17.8S6 110.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. TC 12P CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED WITHIN 36
HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011953Z9), AND
020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z4 IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970101 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- 17.1S9 110.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 110.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 16.8S5 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.8S5 106.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.0S8 104.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION 17.0S8 109.7E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHEARED APART FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE SEPARATION DISTANCE IS INCREASING.
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THE LARGE SCALE WIND FLOW IS
HELPING SUSTAIN STRONGER WINDS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE
INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE, HOWEVER, WHICH IS
WHY OUR WARNING INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS RATHER THAN
CONTINUING TO DECREASE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. WE
EXPECT TC 12P TO REMAIN SHEARED APART AND DISSIPATE OVER
WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5
(DTG 020153Z1) AND 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970102 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- 17.0S8 108.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 108.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 17.1S9 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION 17.0S8 108.0E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC12P (PHIL) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
SLOWLY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 970109 07:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 090721Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S2
77.9E3 TO 18.5S4 73.2E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
090530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S3 77.1E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
12P (PHIL) HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF A 08/1741Z1 SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A
SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS). THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 100730Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970110 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- 17.9S7 78.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 78.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 18.2S1 79.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 18.8S7 79.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 19.6S6 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 20.1S3 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION 18.0S9 78.9E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9)
AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 10/0600Z7 IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970110 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- 18.4S3 80.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 80.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 19.1S1 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 19.8S8 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 20.5S7 80.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 21.0S3 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION 18.6S5 80.4E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 45
KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T3.0). WE EXPECT TC
12P TO TURN SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY 680 NM FROM THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO ITS EAST WHICH IS THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. IF THE OTHER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE SOME
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS MAY OCCUR. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
SOME TIME BEYOND THE VALID TIME PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND 112100Z5
(DTG 111953Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z0 IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970111 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- 18.4S3 80.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 80.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 20.0S2 80.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 20.6S8 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 21.0S3 79.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 18.6S5 80.9E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 110530Z INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. PHIL IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT EXPERIENCES SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PHIL=S CURRENT
MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE PROXIMITY OF TC 18S TO
THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LOOP TO THE
SOUTH, AND THEN TO THE WEST TOWARD 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0)
AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970111 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- 17.6S4 81.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 81.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.6S4 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.9S7 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.3S2 81.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 18.7S6 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION 17.6S4 81.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
TO THE WEST OF TC 18S. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TC 18S. SYSTEM=S MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON A 111621 SATELLITE-BASED MICROWAVE SENSOR IMAGERY
(SSM/I) ANALYSIS, WHICH INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8) AND
122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970112 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- 17.0S8 80.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 80.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.0S8 79.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION 17.0S8 80.3E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 12/0530Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. PHIL HAS BEEN DISSIPATING RAPIDLY DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ONLY
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WHICH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED FASTER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: phil.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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