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Tropical Cyclone RACHEL
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone RACHEL [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 970102 06:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 020621Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S5
130.7E1 TO 13.3S7 124.1E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 020230Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 130.6E0. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: TROPICAL LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR DARWIN
AUSTRALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OPEN WATERS WITHIN
12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 030600Z9.//
=========================================================================
warning 001 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970103 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- 12.5S8 128.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 128.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 13.4S8 126.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 14.4S9 124.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.4S0 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 121.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION 12.7S0 127.7E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE TIMOR SEA. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE INTERACTION
WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1) AND 040900Z3 (DTG
040753Z9). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 03/0600Z9
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970103 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- 13.1S5 127.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 127.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 13.8S2 126.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 14.7S2 125.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.1S9 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION 13.3S7 127.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM
TROUGHTON ISLAND (WMO 94102). WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 031730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. RACHEL IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9) AND 042100Z7 (DTG
041953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970104 09:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- 14.9S4 125.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 125.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 16.0S7 123.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.8S5 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.3S1 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 17.9S7 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION 15.2S8 125.2E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) HAS ACCELERATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA,
NEAR KALUMBURU. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST UNTIL MOVING
BACK INTO OPEN WATERS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN WITHIN
36 HOURS. INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2) AND 050900Z4
(DTG 050753Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT WARNING
NUMBER.//
=========================================================================
warning 005 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970105 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- 17.2S0 122.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 122.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.9S7 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 17.8S6 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.4S3 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.2S2 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.8S8 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION 17.4S2 121.6E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATER THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LAND,
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG
051353Z7), 052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3), 060300Z9 (DTG
060153Z5) AND 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 05/0600Z1 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FABRIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970105 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 17.1S9 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.6S4 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.0S9 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.2S1 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.5S4 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.3S3 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 17.2S0 121.4E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS. DATA AVAILABLE FROM THE BROOME RADAR, SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS OVER WATER AND BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 05/1130Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 55 KNOT SUSTAINED
WINDS (DVORAK T3.5). WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA AND SCATTEROMETRY.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3), 060300Z9 (DTG
060153Z5), 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1) AND 061500Z2 (DTG
061353Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS
16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FABRIOLA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970105 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- 17.5S3 121.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 121.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.2S1 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.5S4 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.5S4 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.8S7 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.7S7 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION 17.7S5 120.8E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 55 KNOT WINDS
(DVORAK T3.5). WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM THE BROOME RADAR
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER PERTH. WE
EXPECT TC 15S TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AND
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060153Z5), 060900Z5 (DTG
060753Z1), 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8) AND 062100Z9 (DTG
061953Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS
14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FABRIOLA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970106 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 18.0S9 120.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 120.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.6S5 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.3S3 118.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.7S7 116.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.1S3 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 20.5S7 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 18.2S1 120.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH
LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1), 061500Z2
(DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4) AND 070300Z0 (DTG
070153Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 06/0000Z6
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FABRIOLA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970106 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- 18.1S0 120.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 120.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.6S5 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.2S2 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.9S9 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.6S8 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 22.1S5 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION 18.2S1 120.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO BE
SLOW DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4),
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 06/0600Z2 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FABRIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970106 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 18.3S2 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.8S7 118.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.3S3 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.0S2 116.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.8S0 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 22.5S9 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 18.4S3 119.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. OUR WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 06/1130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
PROVIDED BY THE PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER.
OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSES INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF 65 KNOT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T4.0). WIND RADII AT
WARNING TIME ARE BASED ON 06/0953Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING WHILE SKIRTING THE COASTLINE OF
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. INTENSIFICATION AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4),
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND
071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z9 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(FABRIOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
warning 012 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970107 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 19.6S6 118.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 118.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.7S9 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.8S1 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.8S2 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 23.7S2 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 25.2S9 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 19.9S9 118.6E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070010Z RADAR DATA AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
MANDORA (WMO 94200), PORT HEDLAND AIRPORT (WMO 94312),
AND ESPECIALLY BEDOUT ISLAND (WMO 94310). WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WIND REPORTS FROM BEDOUT
ISLAND. GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. SLOW WEAKENING
IS THEN FORECAST UNTIL RACHEL REEMERGES INTO THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG
070753Z2), 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG
071953Z5), AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 21 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970107 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- 20.1S3 118.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 118.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 21.0S3 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 22.0S4 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 23.0S5 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 24.1S7 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 26.4S2 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION 20.3S5 118.4E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR
DATA FROM PORT HEDLAND AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
BEDOUT ISLAND (WMO 94310) AND PORTHEDLAND (WMO 94312).
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 070650Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC
REPORTS FROM PORT HEDLAND AND A SATELLITE-DERIVED
INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING 070530Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG
71353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5), NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7), AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970107 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S(RACHEL) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 20.9S1 118.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 118.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 22.6S0 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 24.2S8 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 25.6S3 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 21.3S6 118.4E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RATCHEL) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE AUSTRALIAN LANDMASS. SYNOPTIC AND RADAR
DATA FROM PORT HEDLAND (WMO 94312) INDICATE THAT TC 15S
(RATCHEL) CROSSED THE COAST WITH THE EYE PASSING OVER
PORT HEDLAND AT APPROXIMATELY 070820Z. RATCHEL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. JTWC WARNING FREQUENCY WILL AGAIN BE INCREASED TO
EVERY 12 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7)
AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 970108 03:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) WARNING NR 016A
CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 22.8S2 118.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 118.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 24.4S0 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 23.2S7 119.0E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (RACHEL) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
AT 09 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 072130Z RADAR
REPORT FROM PORT HEDLAND AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS
FROM WITTENOOM (WMO 94313). WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE WIND REPORTS ALONG THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVING SOUTH. TC 15S IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION
FOR CORRECTION: REMOVES WIND RADII AT WARNING TIME.//
|
Document: rachel.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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