[Index]
Tropical Cyclone RHONDA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone RHONDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 970510 03:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100321Z MAY 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S7
82.9E9 TO 15.2S8 94.2E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
101654Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S4 84.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED 1100 NM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION
AND AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE PRESENCE
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN
VERIFIED BY BOTH SCATTEROMETRY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DISTURBANCE ARE ABOUT 28 C,
WHILE SYNOPTIC DATA ALONG THE EQUATOR SHOWS THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. BOTH THESE ARE FAVORABLE INDICATORS FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 110330Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970510 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 12.4S7 85.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 85.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 13.0S4 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 13.6S0 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 14.2S7 88.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 14.8S3 89.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 12.6S9 86.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO FACILITATE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 101130Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9) AND
111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 100321Z MAY 97 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100330).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970511 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 11.5S7 90.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 90.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 11.7S9 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 12.4S7 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 13.3S7 94.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 14.5S0 95.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 11.5S7 90.7E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG MONSOONAL
WESTERLIES. THE POSITION OF THE STORM HAS BEEN RELOCATED
DUE TO 101708Z7 SCATTEROMETRY. TC 36S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL IT GETS CLEAR OF
THE CURRENT EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST, THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970511 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- 11.5S7 90.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 90.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 11.6S8 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.1S4 92.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 12.6S9 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.4S8 94.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.2S8 95.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 11.5S7 91.1E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (TC 36S) HAS SLOWED TO 09 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 36S IS EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND
BURST. AS TC 36S CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD, IT IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE THIS STEERING FLOW AND MAKE A TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z8 IS 14 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU) WILL BE ISSUING 72-HOUR WARNINGS
EVERY SIX HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2), 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8),
120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970511 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 11.8S0 90.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 90.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 12.4S7 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 13.1S5 91.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 13.8S2 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 14.5S0 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 15.8S4 93.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 11.9S1 90.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL
NORTH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. THIS FLOW IS MODIFYING THE EFFECT OF STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF TC36S, WHICH ARE STILL
ATTEMPTING TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE TO THE EAST. THE OVERALL
EFFECT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND FORCE IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS TC 36S
BECOMES FIRMLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT STRONG AT PRESENT, IT
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL STEERING
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF
TC 36S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8), 120300Z6
(DTG 120151Z0) 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6) AND 121500Z9
(DTG 121351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970511 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- 12.1S4 91.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 91.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.6S9 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.1S5 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.7S1 93.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.3S8 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.8S4 94.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION 12.2S5 91.7E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 5
KNOTS. SYSTEM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AS IT HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE STRONG
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES PREVAILING IN ITS AREA OF
FORMATION. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
OVER TC 36S, WHICH WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0), 120900Z2 (DTG
120751Z6), 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 122100Z6 (DTG
121951Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970512 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 11.9S1 91.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 91.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 12.0S3 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 12.5S8 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 13.1S5 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 13.7S1 93.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.5S0 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 11.9S1 91.8E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. WE EXPECT
TC 36S TO TURN SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6),
121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3), 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND
130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970512 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- 12.3S6 92.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 92.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.0S4 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.7S1 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.5S0 92.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.3S9 93.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 16.5S2 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION 12.5S8 92.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS. WE EXPECT TC 36S TO TURN TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3), 122100Z6 (DTG
121951Z9), 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG
130751Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970512 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 12.6S9 92.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 92.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 13.3S7 92.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 14.1S6 92.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.9S4 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 15.6S2 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 17.1S9 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 12.8S1 92.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
4 KNOTS. WEAK STEERING FLOW HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT YET GAINED SUFFICIENT LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH
THE STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, AND HAS THEREFORE CONTINUED
TO INTENSIFY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS TC36S ENTERS THE
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGIME TO ITS SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 17 FEET. FUTURE
WARNINGS ON TC36S WILL BE AT TWELVE HOUR INTERVALS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 131500Z0
(DTG 131351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970513 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- 13.2S6 93.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 93.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 13.7S1 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.4S9 94.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 15.0S6 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 15.8S4 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 13.3S7 93.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
LATITUDE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTENSIFY DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTH. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND 140300Z8 (DTG
140151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970513 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- 13.9S3 93.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 93.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.9S4 94.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 15.7S3 94.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 16.4S1 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 17.1S9 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 14.2S7 94.0E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (75 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION TC 36S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM ENTERS A REGION OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2) AND 141500Z1
(DTG 141351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970514 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- 15.3S9 95.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 95.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 17.2S0 97.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 19.3S3 99.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 21.7S0 101.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 24.4S0 103.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION 15.8S4 96.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND NOW DISPLAYS A RAGGED, CLOUD-
FILLED 10 NM EYE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970514 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- 17.4S2 98.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 98.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 19.6S6 100.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 21.8S1 103.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 24.0S6 105.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 26.6S4 107.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 18.0S9 99.0E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (100 KNOTS). TC 36S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE 36-
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG
150151Z3) AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970515 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- 19.1S1 100.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 100.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 21.1S4 102.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 23.2S7 104.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 25.3S0 106.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 27.4S3 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 19.6S6 100.7E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HEAVY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS NOW A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION
25 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT TC 36S TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG
151353Z6) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970515 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- 20.6S8 103.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 103.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 22.5S9 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 25.0S7 109.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 27.6S5 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 30.4S7 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION 21.1S4 104.2E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED
AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG
160151Z4) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970516 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 23.1S6 107.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 107.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 25.7S4 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 28.1S1 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 23.8S3 108.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. CURRENT WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON BOTH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A
151602Z5 SCATTEROMETRY PASS. WE EXPECT TC 36S TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970516 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- 25.1S8 110.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 110.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 27.1S0 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 25.6S3 110.6E8
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 14 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
|
Document: rhonda.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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