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Tropical Cyclone 199803 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 971026 02:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 260151Z OCT 97// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S4 173.6E7 TO 20.0S2 171.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 252330Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8 173.1E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 4. REMARKS: THE CIRCULATION AND AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST OF ROTUMA (WMO 91650), HAS SHOWN INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE SYSTEMS CENTER AND UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. RECENT SHIP REPORTS INDICATE WINDS SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION ARE IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 270200Z1.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971026 15:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 260151Z OCT 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 260200) 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P WARNING NR 01 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z1 --- 12.8S1 174.5E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 174.5E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 13.4S8 174.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 14.1S6 173.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 15.2S8 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 16.6S3 172.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 261500Z4 POSITION 12.9S2 174.4E6 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF FIJI HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. DURING THE PAST 5 HOURS, A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03P HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION WITH AN INCREASE AT NIGHT AND A DECREASE DURING THE DAY. ALSO, MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CREATING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE HELD OUR INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES DOWN SLIGHTLY DESPITE A 261130Z3 DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03P SHOWS SIGNS OF MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT ORGANIZED PATTERN AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER, THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP VERY SLOWLY BEFORE REACHING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 16S7 LATITUDE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS, BUT WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE TWO BETA ADVECTION MODELS (MBAM AND FBAM) FOR GENERAL TRACK DIRECTION AND FOLLOWED OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MODEL FOR TRACK SPEED. ONCE TC 02P REACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA SHOULD INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY INDUCE RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 260151Z OCT 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 260200). JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REFERENCING DTG FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971027 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- 13.5S9 173.5E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 173.5E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 14.1S6 172.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 14.7S2 172.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 15.4S0 171.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.1S8 171.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270300Z2 POSITION 13.7S1 173.3E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS SYSTEM REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NO LONGER DISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE LOCAL AREA CONVECTION AND IS MORE DIFFICULT TO POSITION. AS TC 03P CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM A 500 MB TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971027 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P WARNING NR 03 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z2 --- 13.2S6 175.5E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 175.5E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 14.2S7 175.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 15.2S8 174.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 175.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 17.7S5 175.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 271500Z5 POSITION 13.5S9 175.4E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P HAS REDEVELOPED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AS COMPARED TO OUR LAST WARNING POSITION AT 270000Z9, AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE RELOCATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE ORIGINAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SHEARED OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENED WHILE A NEW CENTER HAS FORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTH, BASED ON 270600Z5 AND 271200Z2 SYNOPTIC DATA. NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -83C TO -86C NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SYNOPTIC POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 03P REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED ONCE TC 03P PASSES SOUTH OF 15S6 LATITUDE AND MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING EVEN GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971028 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z0 --- 14.9S4 176.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 176.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 16.3S0 176.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 280300Z3 POSITION 15.2S8 176.0E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE VERY LITTLE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P IS OVER A REGION OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: 199803.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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