Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 199835 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]

WTXS21 PGTW 980418 15:00z
181451Z APR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/181521Z APR 98
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S4 127.4E4 TO 13.4S8
121.6E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 181200Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 126.2E1.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
LATEST SERIES OF ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION IN THE TIMOR SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT WIND INTENSITIES
OF UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED EARLIER BY
DATA FROM THE ERS-1 SCATTEROMETER AT 18/0139Z WHICH SHOWED WINDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN THE REGION IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IS CURRENTLY BEING SLIGHTLY INHIBITED BY
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
SEE REF A (WTXS22 PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 191500Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980419 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- 14.1S6 125.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 125.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 15.4S0 125.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 16.7S4 125.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 14.4S9  125.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35S HAS FORMED AND IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS IN THE
TIMOR SEA. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF C2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 182330Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 35S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER AUSTRALIA AND BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN
WEST GU 181451Z APR 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
181500) REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 980419 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z3 --- 15.0S6 125.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 125.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 16.3S0 124.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 15.3S9  124.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 35S HAS REACHED THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
NEAR THE NORTH KIMBERLEY AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED ON
SHORE, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS LAGGED BACK SOMEWHAT
ALONG THE COAST. EARLIER TODAY, THE TROUGHTON ISLAND AUTOMATED
WEATHER STATION (WMO 94102) REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 48
KNOTS, HOWEVER TC35S IS NOW QUICKLY LOSING ITS INTENSITY AS IT
SKIRTS THE COAST AND COMES UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 09 FEET. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCENWEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
34S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//