Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone LES [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS32 PGTW 980124 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 231453Z JA N 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 231500 ) 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z6 --- 13.5S9 138.5E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 138.5E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 12.9S2 136.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 12.7S0 135.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 12.5S8 134.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 12.4S7 133.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 240300Z9 POSITION 13.3S7 138.0E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING AND DIFFICULT TO POSITION. RIDGING DUE SOUTH OF TC 14P IS DOMINATING STEERING. THIS EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF TC 14P IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO BECOMING SUBJECT TO LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8) AND 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 231453Z JAN 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 231500). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA) WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 980124 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- 13.7S1 138.3E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 138.3E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 13.6S0 137.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 13.5S9 136.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 13.5S9 135.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 13.5S9 134.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 13.5S9 134.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION 13.7S1 138.0E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGING LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, TC 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD SLOWLY. TC 14P IS ANTICPATED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 240530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8), 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4), 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 980124 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z9 --- 13.9S3 137.7E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 137.7E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 13.9S3 136.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 13.9S3 135.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 13.9S3 134.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 14.0S5 134.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 241500Z2 POSITION 13.9S3 137.4E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 241130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240954Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING AT ITS PRESENT SPEED THROUGH THE 12 HOUR POSITION. AFTER 12 HOURS, THE STEERING BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4), 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6), 250900Z6 (DTG 25075 3Z2) AND 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 980124 21:00z COR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z5 --- 14.2S7 136.9E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 136.9E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 14.7S2 136.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 15.0S6 135.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 15.2S8 135.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 15.3S9 134.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z9 POSITION 14.3S8 136.7E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 241730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BY THE 24 HOUR POSITION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P=S (LES) FORWARD MOTION TO SLOW DOWN AND EVENTUALLY TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH 24 HOURS. BY 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE LAND BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: THE SATELLITE IMAGE TIME FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) AND MANNOP HEADER FOR 15S.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 980125 03:00z COR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z7 --- 14.4S9 135.8E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 135.8E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 14.6S1 134.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 14.7S2 133.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 14.7S2 133.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z0 POSITION 14.5S0 135.5E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS TIME. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2), 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9), 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5) AND 260300Z1 (DTG 260153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: DIRECTION OF CURRENT STORM MOVEMENT.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 980125 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z3 --- 14.6S1 134.9E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 134.9E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 14.9S4 133.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 15.1S7 132.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z6 POSITION 14.7S2 134.6E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND STEADILY WEAKENING. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 250530Z VISIBLE SATELLLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 980125 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z0 --- 14.4S9 133.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 133.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 14.5S0 132.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 251500Z3 POSITION 14.4S9 133.5E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE IT HAS MOVED OVER THE LAND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980128 21:00z THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 280253ZJAN98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 280300) 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 008 REGENERATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z9 --- 14.0S5 129.4E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 129.4E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 13.7S1 128.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 100 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 13.5S9 127.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 110 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 13.6S0 126.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 110 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 13.8S2 124.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 110 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 14.2S7 122.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 110 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 282100Z3 POSITION 13.9S3 129.2E4 LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITIORY OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS REGENERATED IN THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. ANIMATION SHOWS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS WELL AS NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES THIS CONVECTION IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P AND IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII. CURRENTLY, TC 14P IS TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INTERACTION WITH LAND DIMINISHES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT 6-HOUR INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980129 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- 14.2S7 128.6E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 128.6E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 14.2S7 127.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 14.3S8 125.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 14.5S0 124.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 14.8S3 122.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 15.5S1 120.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 290300Z4 POSITION 14.2S7 128.2E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY STEERING OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THIS TRACK CARRIES THE SYSTEM OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 24 HOURS, CAUSING A TEMPORARY WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR OF LAND AFFECTS. THE POSITION AND WARNING INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 282330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14P (LES). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980129 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z7 --- 14.4S9 127.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 127.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 14.7S2 126.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 15.0S6 124.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 15.4S0 123.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 15.8S4 122.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 16.7S4 119.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 290900Z0 POSITION 14.5S0 127.3E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. INTENSITIES AND WIND RADII ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO A SLIGHT DIPPING OF THE SYSTEM=S TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT EARLY LANDFALL. THE EFFECTS OF LAND SHOULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS IT COVERS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2) AND 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980129 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z4 --- 14.5S0 127.6E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 127.6E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 14.6S1 127.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 14.8S3 126.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 15.1S7 125.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 15.6S2 123.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 16.5S2 121.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 291500Z7 POSITION 14.5S0 127.5E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KNOTS LOCATED AT 13.6S0 127.6E6. THE CURRENT WIND RADIUS WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP REPORT, AND OTHER SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE NEARBY REGION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WEAK SYNOPTIC STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE IT IS OVER LAND. BY 36 HOURS, MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ONCE MORE AS LAND INTERACTION DECREASES AND THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980129 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z0 --- 14.9S4 127.1E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 127.1E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 15.4S0 126.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 15.9S5 125.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 16.5S2 124.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 17.1S9 122.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 17.9S7 119.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 292100Z4 POSITION 15.0S6 126.9E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 291730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST DUE TO A SMALL WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND A RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES). WHILE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DUE TO IT=S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE BY THE 36-48 HOUR POSITION AND BE BACK OVER THE OPEN WATER BY 72 HOURS. BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME DUE TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND SHOULD INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATER AT 291800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8), 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980130 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z3 --- 15.1S7 126.5E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 126.5E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 15.6S2 125.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 16.1S8 124.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 16.6S3 122.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.1S9 121.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 18.1S0 118.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 300300Z6 POSITION 15.2S8 126.2E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER LAND BUT IS MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION WELL. WARNING INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON 292330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, FORECAST INTENSITY AND WIND RADII ARE SUBJECT TO A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF LAND, A SMALL VARIATION IN THE ACTUAL TRACK MAY MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE AFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8), 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5), 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1) AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980130 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z9 --- 16.1S8 125.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 125.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 16.9S6 124.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 17.6S4 122.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 18.2S1 121.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 18.8S7 120.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 19.8S8 117.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 300900Z2 POSITION 16.3S0 124.8E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER LAND, BUT NEAR THE COAST. TC 14P (LES) CONTINUES TO DISPLAY GOOD LOWER-LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER WATER IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 300630 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5), 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1), 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980130 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z6 --- 16.0S7 124.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 124.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 16.7S4 123.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 17.5S3 121.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 18.3S2 119.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 19.0S0 118.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 20.6S8 115.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 301500Z9 POSITION 16.2S9 124.4E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 301100Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN INTENSIFYING AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATER. HOWEVER, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE 72 HOUR POSITION SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATER IS 13 FEET AT 301200Z. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1), 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9) AND 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980130 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z2 --- 16.1S8 124.3E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 124.3E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 16.6S3 122.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 17.2S0 121.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 18.0S9 119.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 18.8S7 118.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 20.6S8 116.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 302100Z6 POSITION 16.2S9 123.9E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY UPWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6) AND 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980131 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z4 --- 16.6S3 123.6E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 123.6E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 17.2S0 122.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 120.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 119.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 19.4S4 118.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 21.1S4 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 310300Z7 POSITION 16.8S5 123.2E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 302330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER 48 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE COASTLINE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6), 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980131 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z0 --- 17.0S8 122.9E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 122.9E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 17.7S5 121.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 18.4S3 120.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 19.1S1 119.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 19.8S8 118.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 21.3S6 116.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 310900Z3 POSITION 17.2S0 122.6E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 310530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AUGMENTED BY 302351Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DESPITE BEING OVER A COASTAL LAND AREA. OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, GOOD ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6), 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2), 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6).// ========================================================================= WARNING 019 NOT AVAILABLE ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980131 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z3 --- 17.8S6 122.8E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 122.8E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 18.3S2 122.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 18.9S8 121.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 120.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 20.2S4 120.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 21.3S6 119.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 312100Z7 POSITION 17.9S7 122.6E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER AND LAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA AND A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTNIUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DIMINISH. THEREFORE, AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P CONTINUES A TRACK ALONG THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WATER BETWEEN THE 24 AND 48 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0), 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6), 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3) AND 012100Z4 (DTG 011953Z9).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980201 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z1 --- 18.8S7 122.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 122.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 19.8S8 122.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 20.4S6 121.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 20.9S1 121.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 21.2S5 120.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z4 POSITION 19.1S1 122.6E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 312330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE GREAT SANDY DESERT TO THE SOUTH AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SINGLE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOIST MARITIME AIR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEVERAL OF OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWEST OVER THE COAST AND MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGH ENTRAINMENT OF MOIST MARITIME AIR. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL NOW ISSUE TWELVE-HOURLY WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES). SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST AND INTENSIFY, SIX- HOURLY WARNINGS WILL BE RESUMED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980201 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- 20.4S6 122.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 122.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 21.6S9 121.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 22.6S0 122.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 23.2S7 122.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION 20.7S9 122.1E6 AMIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND IT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THAT SUGGESTS A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH 24 HOURS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, DRY AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN AND WIND SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW 35 KNOTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 980202 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z2 --- 21.3S6 123.1E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 123.1E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 22.0S4 123.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 23.0S5 124.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z5 POSITION 21.5S8 123.2E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH ONLY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 012330Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: les.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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