Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone LUSI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 971008 05:30z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080530Z OCT 97// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS OF 7.9S6 170.0E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 170.0E8. THE SYSTEM IS QUASISTATIONARY. 4. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. A SPIRAL LOW-LEVEL INFLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. 5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 090521Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971008 21:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 080521Z OCT 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 080530) 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z7 --- 6.7S3 168.6E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S3 168.6E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 7.2S9 167.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 8.1S9 167.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 9.2S1 167.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 10.4S5 167.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 082000Z0 POSITION 6.8S4 168.4E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC APPROXIMATELY 300NM NORTHEAST OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND (WMO 91541). POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 081730Z9 AND ERS2 SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 072245Z0 AND 081122Z4. INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON A SHIP REPORT (3EST7) OF OVER 30 KNOTS AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: MANOP TIME SHOULD HAVE READ 082100Z1. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 080521Z OCT 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 080530).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971009 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z5 --- 8.2S0 169.0E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S0 169.0E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 8.8S6 169.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 9.4S3 169.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 10.2S3 169.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 11.1S3 169.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 090900Z8 POSITION 8.4S2 169.0E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIX ON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. TC 02P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR POSITION. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING MIDDLE- LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD DRAW THE TC FURTHER SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971009 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z8 --- 9.4S3 170.7E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 170.7E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 10.6S7 172.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 11.6S8 173.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 12.6S9 174.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 13.4S8 175.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 092100Z2 POSITION 9.7S6 171.1E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS; THEN UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE THIS SYSTEM AND INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT WIND RADII. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4) AND 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971010 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z7 --- 13.2S6 171.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 171.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 15.7S3 172.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 17.6S4 172.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 19.4S4 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 21.1S4 173.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 100900Z0 POSITION 13.8S2 171.8E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 100000Z SHIP OBSERVATION LOCATED AT 12.6S 168.6E. TC 02P (LUSI) IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS ITS FORWARD MOTION IS HINDERED BY RIDGING DEVELOPING TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971010 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- 16.0S7 172.8E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 172.8E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 18.9S8 173.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 22.0S4 174.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 25.4S1 174.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 28.6S6 176.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION 16.7S4 173.0E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS IN STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGIN TO SHEAR IT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971011 09:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- 17.9S7 174.3E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 174.3E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 20.4S6 175.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 22.9S3 175.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 25.5S2 175.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 28.0S0 176.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION 18.5S4 174.5E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED FOR A 101800Z0 SHIP OBSERVATION LOCATED AT 16.5S 176.0N. TC 02P IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES, AS WELL AS BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY LOWER LEVEL STEERING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6). JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTED CYCLONE NUMBER AND SPEED IN REMARKS.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971011 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 176.7E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 176.7E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 20.6S8 178.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 22.9S3 179.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 25.2S9 179.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 27.8S7 178.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION 19.5S5 177.1E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SCATTEROMETER DATA 11/1124Z0) AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM NANDI/NADI INTL, FIJI (WMO 91680). THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION AT 18.4S3 175.6E9. THIS POSITION WAS USED TO DETERMINE BOTH SPEED AND MOTION FOR THIS 18Z WARNING. FORECAST IS FOR A TURN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS TC 02P (LUSI) IS INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971012 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- 23.8S3 177.9E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 177.9E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 28.1S1 179.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION 24.9S5 178.3E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).//
Document: lusi.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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