Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone NUTE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 971118 02:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180151Z NOV 97// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S7 165.6E8 TO 14.6S1 162.6E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172330Z6 AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 165.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 172330Z6 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR WINDS INDICATE A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. WIND SPEED ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND INTENSITIES OF 25 KNOTS AND SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 190200Z2.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971118 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 170151Z NOV 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 180200 ) 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z5 --- 11.5S7 164.6E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 164.6E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 12.7S0 162.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 13.8S2 159.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 14.6S1 156.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 14.7S2 153.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 180900Z8 POSITION 11.8S0 164.0E1 THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 172303Z6 SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND (WMO 91541). ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS HAS AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS AND IS MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS CLOUD BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT WIND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND A 172303Z6 SCATTEROMETER PASS OF WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE FROM THE BRITISH NUMERICAL MODEL (BRACKNELL) AND THE NAVY=S ONE- WAY TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL AS BOTH MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE TO GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181951Z5) AND 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 170151Z NOV 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 180200).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971118 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z8 --- 12.7S0 162.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 162.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 13.9S3 160.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 14.9S4 159.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 16.0S7 158.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 17.1S9 157.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 182100Z2 POSITION 13.0S4 162.2E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN SHOULD OCCUR BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3) AND 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971119 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z6 --- 14.6S1 161.0E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 161.0E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 16.1S8 159.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 17.7S5 158.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 19.4S4 157.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 21.0S3 158.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 190900Z9 POSITION 15.0S6 160.5E2 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITIES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 190530Z8 INDICATES AN EYE FEATURE IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTERWARDS, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD, TC 05P (NUTE) IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6) AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971119 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- 15.8S4 160.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 160.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 17.0S8 159.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 18.1S0 158.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 19.3S3 158.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 20.5S7 158.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 192100Z3 POSITION 16.1S8 160.0E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SINCE IT IS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AT THIS POINT, AND THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN STEADILY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971120 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z8 --- 17.5S3 159.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 159.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 19.0S0 158.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 20.4S6 158.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 21.6S9 158.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 22.8S2 158.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 200900Z1 POSITION 17.9S7 159.0E5 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND HAS WEAKENED. THIS SYSTEM LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 70 TO 75 KNOTS ABOUT 09 TO 12 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED TC 05P (NUTE) DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. A LARGE ARC CLOUD/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NOTED PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM TC 05P IN ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID-LEVELS AND THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 200530Z0 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF CI3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND CI4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KGWC AND JTWC SATELLITE ANALYSTS, RESPECTIVELY, AND THE OUTWARD PROPAGATING ARC CLOUD. WE EXPECT TC 05P (NUTE) TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON TC 05P AND CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN WAS INDICATED IN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8) AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971120 21:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED AND RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z1 --- 19.5S5 158.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 158.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 21.5S8 158.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 202100Z5 POSITION 20.0S2 158.3E7 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED MORE THAN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BASED ON 202030Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIFICATION FOR THE AMENDED WARNING AND RELOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS A MUCH LOWER INTENSITY OWING TO THE LACK OF ANY CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION OF TC 05P (NUTE) AS SEEN IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 09 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: nute.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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