Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone SID [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS31 PGTW 971226 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z8 --- 11.2S4 132.1E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 132.1E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 11.1S3 133.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 11.1S3 133.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 11.2S4 134.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 11.4S6 134.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 260300Z1 POSITION 11.2S4 132.4E0 LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA FROM MCCLUER ISLAND (WMO 94135), CAPE DON (WMO 94129) AND SURROUNDING SHIP REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS STEERED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. AFTER 12 HOURS TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH TC 08S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWER THAN AN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. ADDITIONALLY, AT THE 24 HOUR PERIOD TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8) AND 270300Z2. // ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 971226 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z1 --- 11.1S3 133.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 133.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 11.2S4 134.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 11.6S8 135.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 12.2S5 136.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 12.9S2 137.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 261500Z4 POSITION 11.1S3 133.5E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH A SYNOPTIC FIX AT 260300Z1 FROM WMO NUMBERS 94135 AND 94134. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MCCLUER ISLAND (WMO NUMBER 94135) INDICATING 35 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 260500Z3 AS THE SYSTEM PASSED NEARBY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT IS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED EASTWARD BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) SHOULD BE STEERED IN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971227 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- 11.9S1 135.3E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 135.3E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 12.7S0 136.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 13.6S0 137.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 14.7S2 137.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 15.6S2 136.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270300Z2 POSITION 12.1S4 135.6E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY INCREASED SPEED, ALLOWING FOR IMPACT ON LAND WHILE STILL AT A RELATIVE EARLY STAGE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS WARNING. INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE RATE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AND EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH LAND. CONTINUED EQUATORIAL STEERING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO A MORE STANDARD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL CHANGE OF DIRECTION FROM THE CURRENT EAST-SOUTH EASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD NEAR 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH A CONTINUING SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971227 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z2 --- 13.3S7 136.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 136.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 14.4S9 137.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 15.4S0 136.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.1S8 135.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 16.6S3 135.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 271500Z5 POSITION 13.6S0 136.8E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 271145Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. TC 08S (SID) IS EXPECTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971228 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z0 --- 15.5S1 137.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 137.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 17.1S9 137.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 17.5S3 135.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280300Z3 POSITION 15.9S5 137.8E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE COMPLETE LAND FALL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AFTER 12 HOURS, THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RELATIVELY SHARP WESTWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW TO MID-LEVEL EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. TC 08S (SID) IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 971228 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- 18.1S0 138.0E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 138.0E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 19.6S6 137.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION 18.5S4 137.9E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORY OF AUSTRALIA. THIS SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Document: sid.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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