[Index]
Tropical Cyclone 199926
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
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Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone 199926 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 990306 14:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061421Z MAR 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBSSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S1 104.5E0 TO 16.2S9 89.5E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061130Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 101.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PERSISTENT DISTURBANCE HAS ORGANIZED INTO TWO
AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO THE NORTHWEST, FAIR ELSEWHERE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
WEAK EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 071430Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990307 09:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 15.3S9 97.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 97.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 15.4S0 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 15.6S2 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 15.9S5 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 16.2S9 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.3S1 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 96.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF JAVA IN THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR 30 KTS.
THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. UW-CIMSS DIVERGENCE PRODUCT INDICATES
TC 26S IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR,
HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FIX POSITION. FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW ALONG A SIMILAR
TRACK AS TC 25S (DAVINA)TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN MORE
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE WAKE OF DAVINA AND ESTABLISHES
BETTER ORGANIZATION. WIND RADII ARE GREATER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONVECTION IN THS SEMI-CIRCLE.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: 35 KT WIND RADII IN ANAL, 12, AND 24
HOUR POSITIONS WERE GIVEN AS 9999 NM. THERE IS NO 35 KT WIND RADII
FOR A 35 KT SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990307 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 13.4S8 97.2E8
APMH PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION AC?UA TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY PPSU:UIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 97.2E8
---
?FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 13.1S5 95.2E6
AAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 DPOSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
0811B>-- 13.60 92.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 14.0S5 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 14.4S9 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.1S7 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 96.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF ITS LAST
POSITION. RELOCATION IS DUE TO PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY SHEARED TO THE WEST.
TC 26S HAS MOVED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. WARNING POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
SOUTHWEST OF THE WARNING POSITION. FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN TURN TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF TC 25S (DAVINA). INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN MORE
RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETTER ORGANIZATION. WIND
RADII ARE GREATER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND
081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990307 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 14.3S8 94.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 94.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 14.6S1 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.9S4 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.2S8 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.0S6 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 14.3S8 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 94.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK INDICATED. THE OVERALL SYSTEM IS STILL LOOSELY
ORGANIZED AND MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) ARE
PROBABLE. FUTURE VISIBLE IMAGERY MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE RELOCATION.
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON
THE EASTERN SIDE WHILE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (35 KTS) ARE BASED ON 071730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
AT 48-72 HOURS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST, HENCE THE SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS TRACK SHOULD FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF TC 25S
(DAVINA). TC 26S IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A SLOWER THAN
NORMAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE WINDSHEAR. AFTERWARDS, IT
SHOULD DEVELOP AT A NORMAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. ALSO A TC (26S)
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WAVE TRAIN OF ANOTHER TC (25S) HAS MORE
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN SIZE AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP ONCE IT BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG
080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990308 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 14.8S3 93.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 93.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.5S1 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.7S3 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.7S3 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 15.7S3 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 15.9S5 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 93.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SYMMETRICAL MASS OF CONVECTION ABOUT 250NM BY 250NM. A 071636Z3
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 35KTS WITHIN THE CONVECTION, BUT
NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED INTACT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT NO DOMINANT LLCC HAS
DEVELOPED. UPCOMING VISIBLE IMAGERY MAY YIELD MULTIPLE LLCC AND
POSSIBLE RELOCATION. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON
THE EASTERN SIDE WHILE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE WARNING INTENSITY (35 KTS) IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH INITIALLY TO HONOR PERSISTENCE.
TC 26S IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A SLOWER THAN NORMAL RATE
THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE WINDSHEAR. AFTERWARDS, TC 26S SHOULD
DEVELOP AT A NORMAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON AN AVERAGE SIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG
080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4), AND
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990308 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 15.5S1 92.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 92.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 16.6S3 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 17.0S8 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 17.4S2 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.6S4 80.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 18.1S0 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 91.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRICAL MASS OF CONVECTION ABOUT 250NM BY
250NM. A 071636Z3 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 35KTS WITHIN THE
CONVECTION, BUT NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNING POSITION, BUT STILL NO LLCC
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT IN THE
IMAGERY ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHILE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED.
A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM, AND COLD AIR FROM THIS AREA IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. THE WARNING INTENSITY (35 KTS) IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS.
TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 26S IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY
THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE WINDSHEAR AND COLDER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 26S SHOULD DEVELOP AT A NORMAL RATE
AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN AVERAGE SIZED TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4), 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990308 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 15.2S8 90.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 90.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.5S1 86.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.0S7 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.5S2 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.4S2 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.9S8 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 89.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)IS
EVIDENT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT IN THE IMAGERY,
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS
EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND COLDER AIR FROM THIS AREA
IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FURTHER INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.
THE WARNING INTENSITY (30 KTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 26S IS
ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE
WINDSHEAR AND COLDER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, THEN
INTENSIFY AS IT ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4),
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6), 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND 091500Z5 (DTG
091351Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990308 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 15.1S7 88.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.1S7 88.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.5S1 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 16.0S7 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.7S4 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 17.4S2 77.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 19.0S0 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 88.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 26S HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE USING INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HENCE, TC 26S MAY BE RELOCATED FOR THE NEXT
WARNING USING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
TC 26S IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
TO THE WINDSHEAR AND COLDER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM.
THEN TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT ORGANIZES AND MOVES
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6), 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2), 091500Z5
(DTG 091351Z9) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990309 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.1S7 87.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.1S7 87.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.3S9 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 15.2S8 82.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.2S8 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 87.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL FAIL TO DISCERN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH TC 26S, BUT DO INDICATE
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED. HOWEVER, 082342Z9 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS NO LLCC IS PRESENT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF A DISCERNABLE LLCC BENEATH
THE CONVECTION, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED. THE FORECAST
TRACK ONLY EXTENDS TO 36 HOURS AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED AS TC 26S IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
NECESSARY TO CONFIRM NO LLCC EXISTS, WITHOUT THE LLCC, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS IMPROBABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z9 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2), 091500Z5
(DTG 091351Z9), 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 00151Z8).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS31 PGTW 990309 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 13.3S7 84.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 84.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.9S2 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 12.9S2 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 83.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 20 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS FAILED TO REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A WEAK AND COMPLETELY SEPARATED LLCC WAS FOUND 180NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. TC 26S HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUECE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS DOMINANT STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
THE LLCC AND THE CONVECTION QUICKLY TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AND MODERATE WESTWARD SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MIXING WITH COLD AIR STRATUS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO DETER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION, TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION IF CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: 199926.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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