[Index]
Tropical Cyclone 199929
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
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Tropical Cyclone 199929 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS22 PGTW 990316 09:00z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150251Z MAR 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160130Z MAR 99//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FOR THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN(WTXS21 PGTW 160300). REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC (WHPS21 PHNC 160300)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S0 74.0E1 TO 13.6S0 68.0E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 160700Z4 INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 74.1E2. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN OVERALL INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HRS. A SATELLITE
FIX FROM AFWA INDICATES THE LLCC IS EXPOSED AND APPROXIMATELY 30NM
EAST OF THE CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THIS IS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL DATA
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF THE LLCC. THIS ANTICLYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY PROVIDING THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 170900Z7.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7 114.8E4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.0S8 152.0W8. //
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 990317 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 13.4S8 73.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 73.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 13.6S0 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.0S5 71.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.3S8 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.6S1 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 73.6E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S HAS
FORMED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 2 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION AT A NORMAL RATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000 IS 14 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 160851Z MAR 99
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS23 PGTW 160900 )
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 990317 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 13.6S0 73.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 73.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.0S5 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.4S9 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 14.9S4 69.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 15.2S8 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 15.7S3 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 73.4E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S HAS
MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KTS OFF THE SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 180530Z6
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25 AND 35 KNOTS. A 170008Z6 TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOWS A
DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SOME WEAK BANDING
FEATURES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST AS
IT IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MORE RAPIDLY OUT
TO 72 HOURS, AS IT MOVES WESTWARD, IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN AVERAGE SIZED
STORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2), 172100Z1 (DTG 171955Z8),
180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 990317 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- NEAR 13.7S1 73.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 73.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.2S7 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.5S0 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.7S2 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.8S3 66.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.1S7 62.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 72.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 6 KTS OFF THE SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 171130Z3 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. A 170214Z5 SSMI PASS SHOWS A DEFINITE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SOME WEAK BANDING FEATURES. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MORE RAPIDLY OUT TO 72 HOURS, AS
IT MOVES IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE SIZED STORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171955Z8),
180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0), 180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG
181355Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S
(ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 990317 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 14.1S6 72.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 72.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.7S2 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 15.2S8 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 15.7S3 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 16.3S0 67.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 16.9S6 63.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 72.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 171730Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TC 29S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZED STORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2
(DTG180155Z0), 180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6), 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3)
AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181955Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 990318 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 14.7S2 73.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 73.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 15.3S9 73.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 15.8S4 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.3S0 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 73.3E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 181130Z9 ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME ITS WESTWARD COURSE, SLOWLY, AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH. TC 29S IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A HIGH WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190155Z1) AND 191500Z6 (DTG
191355Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S
(ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 990319 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 14.6S1 74.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 14.6S1 74.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.6S1 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 14.7S2 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.9S4 74.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 74.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
181730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE AVAILABLE IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDERGOING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
PROHIBIT IT FROM STRENGTHENING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 12
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191355Z4) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNINGS
(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 990319 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- NEAR 14.3S8 74.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 74.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 14.4S9 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 74.2E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S HAS
REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 191130Z5 ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED OFF OF THIS
SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN
WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
30S (VANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: 199929.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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