[Index]
Tropical Cyclone FRANK
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone FRANK [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 990216 23:00z
162251Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.3S6 152.3E1 TO 21.4S7
158.9E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 162130Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S7 152.4E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OFF THE AUSTRALIAN COAST AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW CALEDONIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC
DATA INDICATES PRESSURE DROPS AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND WINDSHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 172300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990217 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 21.4S7 153.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 153.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 21.3S6 155.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 21.2S5 158.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 20.9S1 160.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 20.7S9 162.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 154.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CORAL SEA, NORTHEAST OF
AUSTRALIA. TC 22P HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST AT 12 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
162330Z5 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
TC 22P REMAINS WITHIN A PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UNDER THE
EASTWARD STEERING FLOW OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 22P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST, WITH A SLIGHT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS INDICATE THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGHOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 12 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 162251Z7 FEB 99
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 162300) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990217 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 21.4S7 155.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 155.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 21.3S6 157.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 20.9S1 159.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 20.5S7 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 20.3S5 162.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 20.1S3 165.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 155.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 22P
HAS TRACKED WITHIN A PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE NORTH. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWHICH,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN MORE TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK AFTER THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR BETWEEN
THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL INHIBIT SOME
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT PERIOD. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 36 HOUR. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0), 172100Z1 (DTG
171953Z6), 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4).//
=========================================================================
WARNING 003 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 172100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 21.0S3 157.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 157.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 20.5S7 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 20.2S4 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 20.1S3 162.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.2S4 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 20.8S0 166.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 158.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS DISSIPATED,
HOWEVER A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND EXISTS TO THE NORTH. 171236Z0 SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS
ORIENTED ANTICYCLONICALLY. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS
AUGMENTED BY THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AFTER 36 HOURS THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 22P
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE INDUCES REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER. WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM SCATTEROMETER DATA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2
(DTG 180153Z8), 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4), 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1) AND
182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM IRIS (02W) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990218 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- NEAR 20.4S6 158.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 158.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 20.1S3 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 20.2S4 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 20.7S9 162.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.5S8 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 23.3S8 163.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 158.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10
KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 04 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 172330Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AUGMENTED BY 172034Z7 MICROWAVE DATA. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH 24
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. AFTER 24 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOW AND TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL
STEERING PROVIDED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS REPRESENTS A CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS EXTENDED OUTLOOK TRACK FORECAST REASONING, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMIC AND MOST STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE
AIDS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS CENTRAL ONVECTION REDEVELOPS. WIND RADII ARE
ADJUSTED BASED ON CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 (DTG
180753Z4), 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1), 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND
190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (IRIS)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990218 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 20.3S5 159.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 20.3S5 159.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 20.1S3 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 20.5S7 162.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 21.4S7 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 22.6S0 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 159.4E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P HAS
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS TOWARDS NEW CALEDONIA IN THE CORAL SEA
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 180530Z7
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED,
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH. AFTER 24 HOURS, TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING
PROVIDED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. INDEED, CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 22P STREAMING
TOWARDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z5 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IS SWITCHING
TO 12 HOUR WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990218 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 19.6S6 161.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 161.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.3S5 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 21.5S8 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 23.5S0 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 161.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 11
KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS, FAIR ELSEWHERE. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22P IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN
SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL OF THE DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE AIDS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5) AND 192100Z3
(DTG 191953Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (IRIS) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990219 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 20.1S3 162.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 20.1S3 162.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.6S8 163.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 21.8S1 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 23.4S9 163.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 25.0S7 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.2S4 162.9E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK)
HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS JUST WEST OF NEW
CALEDONIA IN THE CORAL SEA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 190530Z8 ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22P (FRANK)
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS, FAIR ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST.
ANIMATED WATER-VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHILE THE ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST HAS SLOWED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P
(FRANK) SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CONVECTION BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8) AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7). //
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990219 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 20.3S5 164.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 164.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 20.6S8 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 21.3S6 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 22.4S8 170.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 24.4S0 172.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 164.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST AT 9
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND
T4.0 (65 KNOTS-KGWC). TC 22P (FRANK) WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA AND HAS REMAINED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A SLOWLY BUIDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM, COUPLED WITH AND APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW FOR TC 22P
(FRANK) AFTER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK DURING THE
INITIAL 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS NEW STEERING FLOW BEGINS
TO DOMINATE THE SYSTEMS TRACK. OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS
GOOD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN A
MINIMAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING SHEAR BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO HINDER AND EVEN
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22P (FRANK)
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7) AND
202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0).
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990220 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 20.7S9 165.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 165.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 21.9S2 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 23.7S2 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 26.0S8 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 28.6S6 170.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.0S3 165.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 192330Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (100KTS). TC
22P (FRANK) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE.
ADDITIONALLY, TC 22P (FRANK) HAS BEGUN TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARDLY SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NEW CALEDONIA UNDER
THE STEERING FLOW OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BOTH OF THESE STEERING FLOWS
WILL COMBINE TO TRACK TC 22P (FRANK) MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AFTERWARDS, TC 22P (FRANK) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE STEERING
FLOW WEAKENS TEMPORARILY. INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER DRASTIC INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT
AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH THE
24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING SHEAR BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS TC 22P
(FRANK) CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 21 FEET. THIS WAS AN
ADDITIONAL WARNING DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYSTEMS
INTENSITY. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL NOW RESUME 12
HOURLY WARNING. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4) AND
210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2).
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990220 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 21.8S1 166.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 166.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 24.0S6 166.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 25.9S6 165.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 27.7S6 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 29.0S1 164.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 166.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF 200230Z7 ENHANCED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS (WMO 91590 AND 91592) IN
NEW CALEDONIA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80-90 KNOTS. TC 22P (FRANK) HAS BEEN MOVING
OVER NEW CALEDONIA FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS EYE FEATURE
HAS FILLED AS THE STORM WEAKENED OVER LAND. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 22P (FRANK) HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHERLY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CENTRAL NEW CALEDONIA
UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BOTH OF THESE STEERING FLOWS
WILL COMBINE TO TRACK TC 22P (FRANK) MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AFTERWARDS, TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE TROUGH SLOWS AND THE
RIDGE EAST BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
AFTERWARDS, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0) AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990220 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 23.9S4 166.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 166.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 26.3S1 167.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 28.9S9 166.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 31.7S1 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 34.4S1 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 24.5S1 166.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENISTY IS BASED ON 201730Z3 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 22P (FRANK) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THIS PRIMARY
STEERING FLOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE STEERING LEVEL
CHANGES. TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LOWER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW. TC 22P (FRANK) HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECREASED
ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENING INTENSITY MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION WILL FURTHER INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. TC
22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND START TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8) AND
212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1).
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990221 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 013A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 24.5S1 165.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 165.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 26.3S1 164.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 27.4S3 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 28.1S1 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 29.5S6 157.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 24.9S5 164.8E9. RELOCATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
202330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 22P (FRANK) HAS BECOME
ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING
POSITION DUE TO RECENTLY AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE PHILOSOPHY
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. TC 22P (FRANK) HAS
REMAINED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE RIDGE ARE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CHANGING STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK TC 22P (FRANK) TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12 HOURS
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22P (FRANK)
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT NORTHWESTWARD SHEAR, BUT THE
LOW LEVEL WINDFIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. INTERMITTENT INCREASES IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THE OVERALL
TREND, HOWEVER, LEADS TO A DISSIPATING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 21 FEET. THIS IS AN ADDITIONAL WARNING TO
RELOCATE THE SYSTEM. THE NEXT WARNING IS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8)
AND THEN 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990221 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 25.2S9 164.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S9 164.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 26.5S3 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 27.7S6 162.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 28.9S9 160.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 30.1S4 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 164.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65-77 KNOTS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER SHEARED ABOUT 25NM NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. SHIP
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD 35KT WINDFIELD SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CIRCULATION, THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
TC 22P (FRANK) IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THESE
STEERING INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TC 22P (FRANK) WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
NORTHWESTWARD SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE WEST. AS TC 22P TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD IT WILL ALSO MOVE
OVER COOLER SEAS, AIDING THE WEAKENING PROCESS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG
211953Z1) AND 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990221 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 26.5S3 163.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S3 163.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 27.7S6 161.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 29.4S5 159.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 31.6S0 158.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 34.6S3 157.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 26.8S6 162.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 211730Z4 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0
(65 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTING PERIPHERAL SHIP REPORTS. THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 22P (FRANK) HAS CONTINUED TO BE
SHEARD TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS TRACKING WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT SOUTEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P
(FRANK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 22P
(FRANK) IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN TASMAN
SEA. CONTINUED SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER WEAKEN. A 211211Z8 SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
CONFIRMED A BROAD AND STRONG WIND FIELD EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE WIND FIELDS, THEREFORE, HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN,
FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9) AND 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2).
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990222 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 26.8S6 161.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S6 161.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 27.4S3 160.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 28.5S5 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 30.0S3 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 32.0S5 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 27.0S9 161.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (60 KTS) IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS, SUPPORTING
PERIPHERAL SHIP REPORTS, AND A 212315Z4 SCATTEROMETER PASS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ABOUT 25NM NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. THIS DE-COUPLING OF THE
STORM IS A RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 22P
HAS TAKEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC
DATA INDICATES THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA JUST SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OVERALL STEERING INFLUENCE REMAINS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKER RIDGE SOUTH. AFTERWARDS, TC 22P SHOULD
RESUME A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER A COMBINATION OF THE STEERING
FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. CONTINUED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE TC 22P TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LARGE ASSYMETRICAL WIND RADII IS BASED ON
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WELL
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. WIND RADII ARE OMITTED FOR INTENSITIES OF 35 KTS
OR LESS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS AT
36 AND 48 HOURS, A LARGE 30 KNOT WINDFIELD CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD
OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2) AND 230900Z4
(DTG 230753Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990222 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 27.3S2 161.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S2 161.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 28.2S2 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 29.2S3 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 30.4S7 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 31.5S9 160.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 27.5S4 161.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (50 KTS) IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS,
EXTRAPOLATION AND 221800Z3 SHIP AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS.
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 22P (FRANK)
HAS RESUMED ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER DUE TO A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AREA JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OVERALL STEERING
INFLUENCE REMAINS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, WITH
THE SOUTHERLY RIDGE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 22P (FRANK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEERING INFLUENCE FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONTINUED VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
TC 22P TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LARGE ASSYMETRICAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 30-45 KNOTS AROUND THE LLCC. WIND
RADII ARE OMITTED FOR INTENSITIES OF 35 KTS OR LESS.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS AT
48 HOURS, A LARGE 30 KNOT WINDFIELD CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD
OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0) AND
232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990223 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 29.4S5 163.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 29.4S5 163.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 32.2S7 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 34.9S6 163.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 30.1S4 163.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
230530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40 KTS)
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND
230000Z5 SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 22P (FRANK) IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED 15 NM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INDEED, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED JET MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, TC 22P (FRANK)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION AS IT APPROACHES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 35 KNOTS, THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED AND WIND RADII REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO SHIP OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF TC 22P (FRANK).
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FRANK) SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230600Z1 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
|
Document: frank.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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