Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone HALI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WHPS31 PHNC 990312 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- NEAR 20.5S7 159.6W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 159.6W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.3S6 160.8W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.1S5 162.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 23.1S6 163.3W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 24.6S2 164.7W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM --- REMARKS: THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOREORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH DUE TO AMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT WILL CAUSE AWEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET.THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 111800Z MAR 99TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WHPS21 PHNC 111753 )NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990313 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- NEAR 20.0S2 160.1W8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 160.1W8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 19.8S8 160.4W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 19.7S7 160.8W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 19.6S6 161.2W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 19.6S6 161.7W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SYSTEM MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD, STEERING THIS SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990313 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z7 --- NEAR 20.3S5 161.2W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 161.2W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 20.6S8 162.4W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 20.9S1 163.4W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 21.2S5 164.5W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 21.6S9 165.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HALI IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING. THE LATEST SCAT PASS SHOWS 39 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. EXPECT HALE TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND 141500Z1.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990314 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z5 --- NEAR 20.4S6 162.4W3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 162.4W3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 20.5S7 163.8W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 20.7S9 165.2W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 21.0S3 166.3W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 21.7S0 167.2W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: LATEST SSMI, INFRARED, AND VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HRS. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990314 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z8 --- NEAR 20.4S6 161.9W7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 161.9W7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 21.1S4 162.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 22.4S8 161.4W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 23.8S3 160.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 24.8S4 159.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: LATEST METSAT ANIMATION INDICATES SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR, AND HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SOUTH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND 151500Z2.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990315 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z6 --- NEAR 20.3S5 163.8W8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 163.8W8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 20.3S5 164.9W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 20.8S0 165.8W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 21.6S9 166.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 22.5S9 167.2W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: LATEST METSAT DATA INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION AT CENTER OF SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HRS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WHICH WILL AID IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT WEST UNTIL A WEAKENESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR A MORE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT FOR THE 48 HR FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 AND 160300Z0.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990315 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z9 --- NEAR 20.2S4 164.5W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 164.5W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 20.4S6 165.4W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 20.8S0 166.2W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 35 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 21.6S9 167.1W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 22.7S1 167.9W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: LATEST METSAT IMAGERY OVER PAST 8 HOURS HAS SHOWN INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WEST. SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATERS WITH SUBSTAINING SST OVER 81 DEGREES FARENHEIT. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY 24 HRS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 AND 161500Z3.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990316 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z7 --- NEAR 22.1S5 164.3W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 164.3W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 23.6S1 163.9W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 24.7S3 162.7W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 25.6S3 160.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 26.4S2 158.3W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: LATEST METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES CENTRAL CONVECTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED DIURNALLY. A MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM TO ALLOW A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT BY 24 HRS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 AND 170300Z1.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990316 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z0 --- NEAR 24.8S4 162.5W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S4 162.5W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 26.2S0 161.2W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 27.9S8 159.5W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 29.2S3 157.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 30.8S1 154.5W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: LATEST METSAT ANIMATION INDICATES DECREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 8 HRS. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. WITH SYSTEM BECOMING MORE DISORGINIZED AND OBLONGED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 AND 171500Z4. DTG HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO COINCIDE WITH NUMBERING SYSTEM FOR NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONES.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990317 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z8 --- NEAR 23.5S0 162.2W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 162.2W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 24.9S5 161.4W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 26.3S1 159.9W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 27.5S4 157.7W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 29.3S4 155.2W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST METSAT ANIMATION INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ALTHOUGH SYSTEM STILL SHOWS STRONG CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. WE EXPECT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR TO INHIBIT ANY REGENERATION OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL CAUSE SYSTEM DISSIPATION BY THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 AND 180300Z2.// ========================================================================= WHPS31 PHNC 990317 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z1 --- NEAR 24.2S8 164.2W3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S8 164.2W3 FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 24.4S0 164.6W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 24.4S0 165.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS REMARKS: LATEST IR IMAGERY OVER PAST 8 HOURS HAS SHOWN DECREASING CONVECTIVE ACTITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED EXPOSED TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: hali.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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