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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 2000
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]


                                JUNE, 2000

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

                            JUNE HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Very intense Eastern Pacific hurricane threatens Mexican coast
  --> Rare June depression forms in Cape Verde region
  --> Overnight midget cyclone strikes Hong Kong


                     NEW FEATURE - TOPIC OF THE MONTH

     Last month I began adding a new feature to these monthly summaries,
  a sort of "topic of the month" article, discussing some interesting
  topic in the tropical cyclone arena.   I don't intend for this feature
  to be very lengthy--just a few paragraphs at most.  For some subjects
  I may be able to provide links and/or addresses where interested
  persons can look for more information.

                  ***** Topic of the Month for June *****


     Back when I was a teenager in the mid-1960s, I began collecting
  brochures and books on tropical cyclones as well as annual tracking
  charts of the previous year's Atlantic storms.   One publication I
  ordered fairly early on was entitled "NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANES - A
  Descriptive Listing of Tropical Cyclones Which Have Affected the
  State" by Albert V. Hardy and Charles B. Carney.  This little booklet
  quickly became one of my favorites.    So much historical hurricane
  information was in the form of tables and maps, but here was something
  refreshingly different: narrative descriptions of significant tropical
  cyclones which had affected the state, taken from old newspapers and
  other sources.   Much information was given on damage and casualties,
  measurements of wind velocity, marine disasters, general comments
  about the known history of the storm, etc.  I read and re-read the
  booklet many times.   A few years later, after beginning my employment
  at Eglin AFB, Florida, I obtained a copy of a Hurricane Brochure which
  had been published by the base Disaster Preparedness Office.  This was
  a similar sort of compilation of tropical cyclones which had affected
  the western portion of the Florida Panhandle.

     A few years ago I discovered a website where several such state and
  local hurricane histories can be accessed, and I thought I would pass
  along the information for the benefit of those persons who enjoy
  reading descriptions of historical storms.    These can be accessed
  from Eric Blake's Atlantic Tropical Weather Center, for which the URL
  is:> .  Click on the link "Other Hurricane Info"
  (on the left).   The line containing links to the various hurricane
  histories appears about halfway down the screen.   Several of these
  were compiled and written by David Roth, a graduate of Florida State
  University who worked for four years at the Lake Charles WFO and is
  now employed at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Maryland.
  I had the pleasure of meeting David, along with Eric, at the recent
  AMS tropical meteorology conference in Ft. Lauderdale.  Another of the
  histories is an expanded and updated version of the aforementioned
  Northwest Florida storms brochure by Rich Henning, a member of the 53rd
  Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (Hurricane Hunters) and a Staff
  Meteorologist at Eglin AFB.

     The North Carolina hurricane history by James D. Stevenson is an
  expanded and updated work which incorporates much of the material from
  the earlier publication by Hardy and Carney.   The list also includes
  a history of hurricanes in southeastern Texas by Joshua Lichter, one
  for the Savannah, Georgia, area by Patrick Prokop, the histories for
  Louisiana and Texas by David Roth, and one for the state of Virginia
  co-authored by David Roth and Hugh Cobb from the WFO in Wakefield,
  Virginia.     Another item which may be of interest to many is a
  re-analysis of the Great Gale of 1878, a hurricane which swept out of
  the Caribbean in late October and up the U. S. Eastern Seaboard, and
  which was rather deadly and destructive in Virginia.  This study was
  performed by David Roth and Hugh Cobb and was presented as a paper by
  David at the recent Ft. Lauderdale conference.  The URL for this
  paper is:>

     Another interesting tropical cyclone historical paper I stumbled
  across was a re-analysis of the intense Georgia hurricane of 1898
  by Al Sandrik and Brian Jarvinen.   Al, the Lead Forecaster at the
  Jacksonville WFO, is another person whom I had the pleasure of meeting
  at the AMS conference.     The links, first to the full paper, and
  secondly to a version submitted for publication, are:>

  At the recent conference Al presented a paper, authored by himself,
  Brian Jarvinen, and Chris Landsea, discussing the major hurricane
  which struck north Florida on 29 September 1896 and led to very high
  winds inland.   This study is still in progress and is currently not
  available online, but when it is completed I shall report the address
  of a URL where it can be accessed.

  Next Month's Topic - Some Eastern North Pacific Statistics

                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for June:  2 tropical depressions

  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory.  All 
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-min averaging period unless 
  otherwise noted.

                        Atlantic Activity for June

     Two tropical depressions formed in the month of June in the Atlantic
  basin.  The first development was in one of the favored cyclogenetical
  areas for June--the southwestern Gulf of Mexico--but the second
  depression formed very anomalously in the eastern Atlantic a few
  hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, becoming the
  easternmost June tropical depression on record.  Furthermore, the
  system appeared quite well-organized and there were several
  meteorologists who seemed to feel that the system may have actually
  reached tropical storm intensity.

     A tropical wave left the coast of Africa on 23 May and moved across
  the Atlantic and Caribbean.  By 6 Jun the wave was helping to generate
  strong convection over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan
  Peninsula.   A second tropical wave, first detected in the east-central
  Atlantic on 28 May, followed closely on the heels of the first wave
  and the two appeared to merge on 7 Jun as a 1009-mb LOW formed in the
  Bay of Campeche.   NHC classified the LOW as a tropical depression at
  2100 UTC on 7 Jun and initiated advisories.  At 1800 UTC the poorly-
  defined center was located about 275 nm east-southeast of Tampico,
  Mexico.   An upper-level anticyclone to the south created unfavorable
  westerly shear over the depression, thereby inhibiting further
  intensification.  The system moved very slowly and erratically toward
  the west over the next 24 hours.  A reconnaissance plane from the
  53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserves
  investigated the depression around midday on 8 Jun and found that the
  system had degenerated into a broad area of low pressure without a
  definite center of circulation.   A weak remnant area of low pressure
  was forecast to drift slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
  following 2 or 3 days.   A ship (9VBL) located near 22.9N, 95.5W
  reported winds to 33 kts at 1400 and 1500 UTC on 9 Jun.    Moisture
  advected northward from the remnants of the depression lead to several
  days of heavy, tropical rain over south-central Texas.  (The parent
  wave which helped to spawn this depression subsequently moved into
  the Eastern Pacific where it was instrumental in the formation of
  Tropical Storm Bud.)

                      Tropical Depression  (TD-02)
                              23 - 25 June

     My reason for treating this depression in a separate section is
  more to discuss some of the debate which ensued over the system's pre-
  depression stage than to describe the meteorological history of the
  disturbance.   A 1012-mb LOW formed just off the west African coast on
  22 Jun and began tracking westward.  Although convection was generally
  not all that deep, on 23 Jun the system presented a very well-organized
  appearance in satellite imagery.   However, the system was not upgraded
  to a tropical depression at this time since the forecasters at TPC/NHC
  were not convinced that a surface circulation existed.     The first
  advisory on TD-02 was issued at 1500 UTC on 24 Jun when the depression
  was located about 500 nm southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  By this
  time the system was looking less impressive in satellite imagery than
  on the previous day, but the forecaster on duty was convinced that
  a surface westerly wind existed south of the center.     Some of the
  models forecast intensification while others indicated that the
  depression would soon dissipate.   The latter scenario verified in
  this case as visible imagery and cloud wind vectors from CIMSS the
  next day indicated that the depression no longer had a closed
  circulation.  The final advisory was issued at 1800 UTC on 25 Jun
  with the system located over 900 nm west-southwest of the Cape Verdes.
  SSTs were marginal and the depression encountered more stable air
  as it moved westward.

     This depression, while short-lived and insignificant, is interesting
  in that it is the easternmost tropical depression on record to form in
  the month of June.   June tropical cyclones are not unknown in the
  tropical Atlantic between the Antilles and Cape Verdes--two tropical
  storms formed there during the 20th century and others are known to
  have formed in earlier centuries--but nonetheless they are very rare
  and no June depression has been observed so far east since the advent
  of satellites.  However, it is very possible that tropical depressions/
  tropical storms formed in this area during June in pre-satellite years
  and remained undetected.   In 1996 Hurricane Bertha formed in the same
  general area on 5 July--less than two weeks later into the season.

     Mark Lander of the University of Guam supplied a visible satellite
  image taken at 23/1800 UTC which depicts a well-organized cloud system.
  (This was the day before depression advisories were initiated.)  In
  Mark's opinion the system warranted a Dvorak rating of a strong T2.5
  with winds likely 35-45 kts with a definite indication of westerlies
  to the south of the center.    A QuikScat image from Roger Edson taken
  at 1500 UTC revealed a complete circulation with quite a few wind barbs
  of 35-40 kts.  (There were three at 50 kts, but the general consensus
  was that these were likely too high.)  Roger and Mark, along with some
  of the researchers at HRD, expressed the opinion that this system was
  a tropical storm on 23 Jun.   This opinion was obviously not shared
  by the forecasters at NHC, although James Franklin has indicated that
  in post-storm review the depression stage will quite possibly be
  extended back earlier in time.

     Most of the disagreement seems to center around the validity of
  scatterometer data.   Some tropical meteorologists tend to have quite
  a great degree of confidence in data from the QuikScat satellite (with
  researchers more prone to fall into this camp) while others are more
  cautious in accepting the data as "ground truth".   Two aspects of the
  data seem to have been called into question: (1) whether or not the
  existence of a surface circulation is always accurately portrayed, and
  (2) whether the reported winds are correct or are subject to rain
  contamination.   Hopefully, these questions will be resolved in the
  near future to everyone's satisfaction, and the day will maybe soon
  come when remote sensors will be able to accurately determine the
  intensity, physical structure, and thermal characteristics of all
  tropical and subtropical cyclonic systems.

     Some of the e-mail discussion about this system though brought up
  another question:  If, in the opinion of the responsible forecaster, a
  system does meet all the criteria of a tropical storm, should it be
  upgraded and named in all cases, or should a "wait and see" stance be
  adopted to see if the system persists?   In the specific instance of
  eastern Atlantic systems, there have occasionally been monsoon
  depressions which have rolled off Africa with well-developed
  circulations, and perhaps in a few cases accompanied by gale-force
  winds, but which have died as they moved westward out of the monsoon
  trough into the tradewind environment--especially true for systems
  earlier in the season.    For such disturbances NHC has often adopted
  the policy of waiting to see if the system maintains itself and shows
  signs of strengthening as it moves farther west before upgrading the
  system and initiating advisories.

     As Mark Lander points out, to "call it like it is" certainly does
  a service for shipping in the area, but the forecaster at NHC is ever
  conscious of how the U.S. public and media will respond to disseminated
  tropical cyclone information.  And this is a point to be considered.
  It may be difficult for persons outside the U. S. to believe this, but
  a 35-kt tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic can really grab the
  attention of the media and public, at least in the eastern and southern
  U. S.   If a storm is named, and then downgraded only 6 or 12 hours
  later, some forecasters feel that many in the media/public will believe
  they "cried wolf" and their credibility may suffer.  (This is not quite
  as much of a problem in the western Atlantic where reconnaissance data,
  as well as often radar and buoy data, are available.)

     To do a bit of editorializing (which I rarely do)--in the author's
  humble opinion, with the increasing public availability of all the
  remote sensing data from satellite platforms, the best course of 
  action is to "call the shots as they are".  I believe that it is not
  impossible to educate the public and media, without resorting to
  language that is too technical, to the point where they can understand
  more about the nature of tropical cyclones and will not be surprised
  once in awhile if a very brief tropical storm occurs; or will
  understand why a future "Perfect Storm" that batters the New England
  coastline might later be reclassified as a hurricane and assigned a
  name even while it is moving away from the coastline.


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for June:  1 tropical storm
                      1 hurricane

  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory (CPHC
  for locations west of 140W.)  All references to sustained winds imply
  a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.   The narratives for
  Tropical Storm Bud and Hurricane Carlotta were written by John Wallace
  of San Antonio, Texas, who also wrote the narrative for Hurricane
  Aletta in last month's summary.  (A big thanks to John for writing the
  the reports and also for the special interest he has in this often
  somewhat neglected tropical cyclone basin.)

                    Northeast Pacific Activity for June

     Tropical cyclone activity in the Northeast Pacific basin during
  June was near normal.   Two tropical storms developed with one of
  these, Carlotta, becoming a very intense Category 4 hurricane on
  the Saffir/Simpson scale.   In its early stages Carlotta passed close
  enough to the coast of southern Mexico that some watches and warnings
  were required for the coastline.

                      Tropical Storm Bud  (TC-02E)
                              13 - 17 June

     The origin of Bud seems to have been an African tropical wave that
  tracked off the continent around 27 May.   It tracked uneventfully
  across the Atlantic for most of the next week, after which it became
  tied up in strong convection in the western Caribbean and Bay of
  Campeche.    In fact, this wave was apparently the progenitor of
  Tropical Depression One in the Atlantic.     The wave entered the 
  Eastern Pacific by 8 Jun, where it slowly drifted westward.  The
  wave generated strong, but sporadic and disorganized, convection 
  until the 11th, when a tropical LOW developed along the wave axis.
  The ragged disturbance slowly organized until a ship report and
  satellite analysis warranted upgrading the LOW to Tropical Depression
  Two-E at 1500 UTC on 13 Jun about 550 nm south of Mazatlan, Mexico.
  The tropical depression tracked west-northwestward under the influence
  of a deep-layer ridge to its north.

     Two-E was slow to intensify; it was initially under moderate north-
  easterly shear from a strong upper-level anticyclone to its north which
  kept the mid- and low-level circulations from aligning.  The situation
  was reminiscent of Aletta's the month before.    A ship report from
  vessel KAOU of 40-kt winds with a 1001-mb SLP 120 nm northeast of the
  center, Dvorak estimates of storm strength from the TAFB and KGWC, and
  scatterometer data warranted its upgrade to Tropical Storm Bud by
  0300 UTC on the 14th when the center was located roughly 500 nm south-
  southeast of Cabo San Lucas on the tip of Baja California.  The anti-
  cyclone weakened and moved eastward relative to Bud by late on the
  14th, lessening the shear.  The sheared cloud pattern in fact misled
  forecasters; the morning of the 14th showed the tropical cyclone to be
  on more of a northwesterly track than originally believed, as the LLCC
  was northeast of Bud's strongest convection.    The center remained
  difficult to pinpoint even in visible imagery, and the track was
  adjusted eastward throughout the day on the 14th as the LLCC became
  more co-located with the mid-level center.    The storm intensified
  slightly to 45 kts with a CP of 1000 mb by 1500 UTC on 14 Jun.   This
  was to be Bud's peak wind intensity, and it was maintained until
  2100 UTC on the 15th.    However, the pressure was adjusted downward
  twice based on synoptic data, and the first time the CP was estimated
  to be 995 mb, the lowest value in Bud's lifetime.    Bud was a large
  storm; storm-force winds and 12-foot seas extended 120 to 150 nm from
  the center through most of its time as a storm.    Before it was
  downgraded, the 12-foot seas radii had expanded to 200 nm while
  the wind radii contracted during the onset of the weakening trend.

     The cyclone remained relatively unimpressive in terms of
  organization as it tracked to the north-northwest.  Though upper-level
  conditions became more favorable, this positive factor was cancelled
  out by Bud's entry into cooler waters.   There was conflicting output
  about its possible track, and some models suggested that Bud posed a
  threat to the Mexican coast--specifically Baja California.  The storm
  tracked very near Socorro Island at 0900 UTC on 15 Jun; unfortunately,
  as with Linda three years earlier, there were no surface data collected
  at closest approach, though an upper-air observation taken at 0000 UTC
  helped to better determine its intensity.  By this time, however, its
  convection had already begun a weakening trend.    The entrainment of
  cooler, more stable air and its track into ever-cooler waters eroded
  the tropical storm.  The favorable upper-level environment gave Bud a
  reprieve, however, and the cyclone's large circulation was slow to spin

     Bud was downgraded to a tropical depression at 0900 UTC on 16 Jun
  as it became quasi-stationary north of Socorro Island, or about 200 nm
  south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, again reminiscent of Aletta.   By
  1500 UTC on the 16th, Bud's LLCC was completely exposed--the system
  was devoid of deep convection within 60 nm of the center.  By 2100 UTC
  the cyclone was almost invisible in infrared imagery, although visible
  images still showed a well-defined low-level vortex.    The final 
  advisory on Bud, placing the weakening center about 175 nm south-
  southwest of Cabo San Lucas, was issued at 1500 UTC on 17 Jun, though
  a residual whorl of clouds persisted for several days thereafter.

     Moderate, peripheral rains reached the southern Mexican coast, but 
  whether they were directly related to the storm is debatable.   The
  rains occurred well outside the radius of tropical storm-force winds,
  and most of Bud's convection was displaced west of the center, away
  from the coast.  The rain may have been as much a result of offshore
  convergence, orographic lifting and daytime heating as of Bud's
  presence, although the storm's large circulation must be taken into
  account.  North of Puerto Vallarta the effects were less ambiguous,
  and it's certain that rains from Bud affected Cabo San Lucas and the
  mainland.  Residual moisture advected northeastward from Bud generated
  precipitation in Mexico and the American Southwest.  No casualties or
  damages are known from either rain or surf.

                        Hurricane Carlotta  (TC-03E)
                                18 - 25 June

     Carlotta seems to have originated from a tropical wave that left the
  African coast on 8 Jun.  However, the wave apparently dissipated as it 
  crossed Central America well east of where the incipient tropical LOW
  that became Carlotta developed.  Admittedly though, the data have a
  coarse temporal resolution.  Another possibility is that Carlotta
  developed directly from a convective disturbance on the Pacific ITCZ.
  In either case, a tropical LOW formed just east of Central America on
  the 16th and tracked slowly west-northwestward.   The LOW had a good
  cyclonic signature and strong convection from the start, and steadily
  organized.  A CDO developed on the 18th; this along with ship reports
  (and one doubtful report of storm-force winds 50 nm south of the
  center) justified its upgrade to Tropical Depression Three-E at
  2100 UTC on 18 Jun when it was roughly 255 nm south of Salina Cruz,
  Mexico.  Its immediate track was northwestward, parallel to the coast.

     Three-E's proximity to the coast warranted the issuance of a
  tropical storm warning for the Mexican coast from Salina Cruz to
  Acapulco.  The issuance seemed prudent, as the depression was upgraded
  to Tropical Storm Carlotta only three hours after the first advisory,
  at 0000 UTC on the 19th, roughly 235 nm south of Salina Cruz.    The
  upgrade was based on surface and satellite data; the latter showed a
  robust tropical cyclone with strong convection.    Although light
  easterly shear (and perhaps interaction with land) prevented the CDO
  from being symmetrical at first, the strongest convection remained
  centered over the circulation center, and became more consolidated by
  the time of the upgrade.   Once upgraded, Carlotta began a relentless
  intensification trend with its central pressure falling an average of
  0.6 mb per hour for the next 24 hours.  A hurricane watch was issued
  for the Mexican coast at 0900 UTC on the 19th from Puerto Angel to
  Zihuatanejo, while a tropical storm warning remained in effect east of
  Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz.    Nevertheless, the radii of tropical
  storm-force winds remained just offshore; even the impact of rain from
  Carlotta's spiral bands was modest with much of the rain that did occur
  being unrelated to its presence.   Carlotta's track turned slightly
  more to the west through the 19th and into the 20th, a development that
  was well-forecast as the storm was influenced by a strong mid- to
  upper-level ridge to its north.  Though the turn lessened the threat
  to Mexico, Carlotta remained too close for comfort as it paralleled
  the coast.
     Carlotta was upgraded to hurricane status at 0000 UTC on 20 Jun,
  merely a day after being christened a tropical storm, while 205 nm
  west-southwest of Puerto Angel or about 175 nm south-southeast of
  Acapulco.     A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning were in
  effect for the Mexican coast from Puerto Angel to Zihuatanejo, while
  warnings east of Puerto Angel were discontinued by 2100 UTC on the
  19th.   The upgrade was warranted based on the first appearance of a
  ragged eye in visible imagery late on the 19th and a classification of
  65 kts from KGWC at 2215 UTC that same day.   An increase in the area
  of deep convection, a persistent warm spot in infrared imagery, and a
  consensus among satellite analyses of 65-kt intensity were also taken
  into account.  Outflow was excellent through most of its southern
  semicircle, but restricted elsewhere.     Carlotta's intensification
  trend, though impressive, was downplayed as its convection weakened
  slightly early on the 20th.   By 0900 UTC the threat to the Mexican
  coast had decreased to the point where the hurricane watch was
  discontinued;  the tropical storm warning was dropped by 1500 UTC the
  same day.    Carlotta continued to intensify in the meantime--the
  estimated MSW was upped to 75 kts by 0900 UTC and to 90 kts by 1500 UTC
  on the 20th.   Radar from Acapulco at 0900 UTC showed only a partial
  eyewall, but the hurricane had developed a definite 7-nm diameter
  eye by 1500 UTC which became increasingly well-defined through the day.
     The most interesting developments in Carlotta's life occured late 
  on the 20th when a rare Eastern Pacific reconnaissance mission
  investigated the storm.  The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure
  of 977 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 87 kts at 1856 UTC on the
  inbound leg of the flight in the northeast quadrant.  A GPS dropsonde
  deployed later when the plane had reached the west quadrant found mean
  boundary layer winds of 106 kts about 200 m above the water and surface
  winds of 91 kts a few seconds later.  The NHC adjusted the MSW estimate
  downward accordingly to 85 kts in the 2100 UTC advisory, a 20-kt under-
  shot from satellite estimates.   This perhaps wasn't too surprising,
  given the great eye presentation and spiral structure apparent on
  visible imagery at the time.  This discrepancy would become a hot topic
  of discussion among certain members of the meteorological community,
  a topic which will be discussed in more detail later in the summary.
  At the time of the reconnaissance observation, the outflow remained
  excellent in the southern semicircle as it improved to the north.  Even
  as the Hurricane Hunters reported data back to the NHC, Carlotta had
  begun a dramatic intensification trend.  The central pressure dropped
  7 mb in less than three hours between the first and last center fixes
  while the winds increased to 96 kts at the surface.  Carlotta exploded
  in intensity after 2100 UTC, its central pressure dropping 42 mb in
  12 hours for a rate of 3.5 mb per hour.  In contrast, the minimum
  deepening rate required to be considered "explosive" is 2.5 mb per hour
  for 12 hours.   Carlotta reached its peak intensity at 0900 UTC on
  21 Jun; estimated MSW were 130 kts with a CP of 935 mb.  The hurricane
  was centered about 250 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico, at this time.
  This intensity was maintained until 1500 UTC when a weakening trend
  began.  During Carlotta's peak, the hurricane's CDO had the classic
  "buzzsaw" appearance characteristic of many of the most intense
  hurricanes, and a 17-nm diameter eye.  The "buzzsaw" is typified by a
  sharp-edged and symmetrical CDO with a pinpoint eye and uniform intense
  convection.   According to an associate, Patrick Hoareau, Carlotta's
  130-kt peak makes it the second most intense June Eastern Pacific
  hurricane on record, after 1973's Hurricane Ava.   (Note:  According
  to TPC/NHC's monthly summary on their website, the peak MSW for
  Carlotta has been increased to 135 kts on 21 Jun, making Carlotta
  a very strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale,
  almost a Category 5.)

     Carlotta slowly weakened through the 21st as it turned slightly
  more to the northwest around the periphery of a ridge to its north
  and entered cooler waters.   Northeasterly shear also began to impinge
  on the system, and Carlotta's superb structure and strong convection 
  deteriorated steadily, as did its eye.   The cyclone fluctuated in
  intensity on the 22nd; it weakened below major hurricane status (100 kt
  or greater winds) at 0900 UTC, re-attained 100 kts at 1500 UTC, and
  weakened again to 95 kts by 2100 UTC.    Carlotta's forward motion
  increased slightly beginning on the 23rd, a day in which various model
  outputs suggested the system could pose a threat to Baja California,
  though the weakening trend and its small size argued against it.   A
  trough extending southward from a 500-mb LOW off California was
  expected to maintain Carlotta's northwesterly track.  Though Carlotta
  was on its way out, it maintained hurricane status through the 23rd and
  into the 24th.     Even in its weakening stage, Carlotta remained
  remarkably well-organized, with a persistent, compact CDO that seemed 
  atypical of a decaying hurricane.
     A tropical storm watch was issued for Baja California south of Cabo
  San Lazaro at 0900 UTC on the 23rd; Carlotta was 250 nm south of Cabo
  San Lazaro at the time with a MSW of 95 kts.    The watch proved
  unnecessary and was dropped later that day at 2100 UTC, at which time
  Carlotta was only a minimal hurricane located about 200 nm south-
  southwest of Cabo San Lucas; the system showed no direct indication of
  being a threat to the peninsula.   Indeed, a 500-mb LOW off southern
  California threatened to deflect the cyclone to the east, but it was
  considered unlikely that Carlotta would survive long enough for that
  to happen.
     Carlotta was downgraded to a tropical storm at 0900 UTC on the 24th
  as it began a rapid weakening trend over unfavorably cool waters.
  Its forward motion decelerated accordingly.  By 1500 UTC on the 24th,
  all of Carlotta's deep convection was gone, and only the Dvorak
  constraints maintained the system.  Hints of convective activity early
  on the 25th also kept it at tropical storm strength longer than it
  might have otherwise been.    The LLCC became completely exposed,
  resulting in Carlotta's being downgraded to depression status at
  0900 UTC on 25 Jun; the final advisory was issued at 1500 UTC the same
  day with the center about 450 nm west of Cabo San Lucas.  The remnant
  low-level vortex slowly drifted westward in the low-level flow for
  several days thereafter.

     No casualties are known by the author at the present time.   Heavy
  rains over Mexico on the 18th were apparently unrelated to Carlotta.
  Through much of Carlotta's life though, strong ITCZ convection was
  advected northeastward into Mexico along its southwest flank.  The
  impact of these rains is unknown, as is that of the undoubtedly
  dangerous seas.     Tropical storm-force winds remained offshore
  throughout the storm's lifetime.  In Acapulco 100 families were moved
  out of high-risk areas when Carlotta reached hurricane strength.

     Carlotta will be most remembered for the data the reconnaissance
  mission collected on the 20th.  These highlighted a major discrepancy
  between the Dvorak intensity estimates and the in situ measurements by
  the Hurricane Hunters.   That the Hurricane Hunters caught Carlotta at
  the beginning of an explosive deepening trend is not disputed, but
  rather, why the two estimates were so at odds.   At the time of the
  2100 UTC advisory, when the winds were adjusted downward to 85 kts,
  satellite intensity estimates were near 100 kts.  Less than 30 minutes
  after the reconnaissance recorded surface winds of 96 kts, satellite
  estimates from KGWC were 115 kts while the University of Wisconsin's
  Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT) gave estimates of roughly 135 kts.
  At Carlotta's peak satellite intensity estimates were near 140 kts, but
  were adjusted downward because of the earlier discrepancy.  In fact, 
  it's possible that Carlotta was much weaker at its perceived peak.  The
  author considers this unlikely, but the lack of flight data means it
  can't be ruled out.     There has been speculation that the Dvorak
  estimates merely led the actual intensity, and that the reconnaissance
  missed the convergence between the two estimates; i.e., the winds
  "caught up" with the Dvorak estimates.     Another view is that the
  satellite estimates were on the money, while another is that neither
  the Dvorak estimates nor the flight measurements can be fully trusted
  and that the final estimate will be the result of a reasonably
  justified judgement call.  Carlotta's difficult case also highlights
  the "if a tree falls in the forest..." paradox that a lack of flight
  and other in situ data causes with respect to storm strength.  The
  debate is fundamentally about the validity of Dvorak estimates versus
  reconnaissance data, a topic which has been a problem for tropical 
  meteorologists since the technique was devised.  Dvorak estimates are
  usually in the ball park; such a large deviation is unusual.  When
  compiled, the official Best Track data will show which side the NHC
  falls on.

  Note:  The monthly summary prepared by TPC/NHC mentions that the
  Lithuanian freighter LINKUVA, which lost engine power and was caught
  in the hurricane, remained missing at the time the report was prepared
  and the crew of 18 are presumed lost.


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for June:  1 short-lived tropical cyclone

                    Northwest Pacific Activity for June

     No tropical depressions, tropical storms, or typhoons entered
  warning status in the Northwest Pacific basin during June.  While it
  is not common for June to be completely stormless, a quiet June does
  happen every now and then, the last such occurrence being in 1996.
  However, it appears that there was a very short-lived small system
  which reached tropical depression status and perhaps even minimal
  tropical storm strength.   This interesting "micro-midget" system
  which affected Hong Kong on the night of 18-19 June is described


     When I first received a copy of the list of new Asian typhoon names
  in late 1998, I decided that whenever the names began to be utilized I
  would report the contributing country or territory for each name and
  give the basic meaning of the name.     I forgot to do this for the
  first two NWP systems to be assigned names from the new list.  The
  name "Damrey" is the Cambodian word for elephant; and "Longwang" was
  contributed by China, being the name of the Dragon King who was the
  god of rain in Chinese mythology.  In ancient times people would offer
  sacrifices to the Dragon King, praying for timely rainfall and abundant

                    Hong Kong Midget Tropical Cyclone
                              18 - 19 June

     On 19 Jun I received an e-mail from Phil Smith, an Australian who
  lives in Hong Kong and works as a computer salesman and consultant, and
  who is also a dedicated tropical cyclone enthusiast.    Phil related
  how that on the night before, a very small tropical cyclone had formed,
  rapidly intensified and moved inland right over Hong Kong--all during
  the night while he slept!  According to a report from the Hong Kong
  Observatory, Tropical Cyclone Warnings were hoisted for only 4 hrs,
  30 min--a record short duration, the previous shortest being in
  association with a tropical depression in Sep, 1958 (9 hrs, 35 min).

     As early as 14 Jun JTWC had mentioned an area of convection that
  had formed in the South China Sea with a LLCC located along the tail
  end of a shear line.   The disturbed area remained quasi-stationary
  for several days with a little increase in convective organization
  becoming apparent by the 16th.  By 18/0600 UTC the STWO indicated that
  over the previous 24 hours satellite imagery had revealed an increased
  organization of convection around a small LLCC located about 150 nm
  southwest of Hong Kong and the potential for development was upgraded
  to Fair.  At 2300 UTC a special STWO was issued reporting that the
  system was now inland about 50 nm north of Hong Kong with convection
  persisting about a tightly-wrapped LLCC.   By 19/0600 UTC the area
  was centered about 250 nm north-northeast of Hong Kong, and at 2100 UTC
  had moved out over the East China Sea and was extratropical.

     According to the HKO report, the tiny tropical depression formed
  only about 20 nm from the Observatory.  When the depression was closest
  to Hong Kong, Waglan Island and Tsing Yi reported 10-min avg wind
  speeds of 29 kts and 22 kts, respectively.     The lowest pressure
  recorded at the Observatory was around 1000 mb.

     Phil's report indicates that at Shatin (where he lives), winds
  peaked at 15 kts from 2200 to 2300 local time with a minimum pressure
  of 999 mb at 2200 Local.   At Sai Kung (a few km east of Shatin) the
  wind peaked at 38 kts (10-min avg) at 2200 Local and had abated to
  33 kts an hour later.  No pressure reports were available from Sai
  Kung.  (Since Phil indicates all the action occurred whilst he slept,
  and the HKO report makes it clear the event happened during the
  evening, I am assuming the times given are local times.  Hong Kong
  time exceeds UTC by 8 hours.)

     According to Phil's e-mail the storm didn't begin to form until
  about 2100 Local, although the Hong Kong area had been under the
  spiralling rain bands of a low-pressure area for the previous couple
  of days.    It appears that the system was no more than 30 nm in
  diameter.      The HKO report refers to the system as a tropical
  depression.   Phil indicates that the wind speeds in his write-up are
  10-min averages.   If the 38-kt report from Sai Kung is verified, this
  would indicate that the system may have been a brief tropical storm.

     If more information comes to light on this very interesting little
  storm it will be reported in a future summary.


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


  AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUG) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones

                    Australian Region Activity for June

     No tropical cyclones or LOWs developed in the Australian Region
  during June, but there was a system which formed east of Queensland
  around mid-month which, while not a true tropical development, did
  produce gale-force winds over a wide area.   Since the warnings from
  Brisbane did not classify the system as a tropical LOW, and since to
  me it did not remotely resemble a tropical cyclone in the satellite
  imagery which I looked at, I did not save any warnings for the LOW
  from which a track might have been constructed.     However, Jeff
  Callaghan of BoM Brisbane sent me a summary of the system, so I am
  including a synopsis of Jeff's write-up below.

     A very strong upper-level jet stream was located in the southern
  Coral/northern Tasman Seas on 9 Jun (maximum winds greater than
  150 kts) with an upper-trough entering eastern Australia.  On the
  surface a trough was developing and extending southeastwards from the
  northwest corner of the Coral Sea.  During 10 Jun a LOW developed to
  the west of Ile Loop (WMO 91574) and the maximum 10-min avg wind and
  lowest SLP at that AWS were 040/32 kts and 1004.0 mb at 10/0900 UTC.
  The LOW moved southeastward between Ile Loop and Cato Island (WMO
  94394) and the maximum 10-min avg wind and lowest SLP at that AWS
  were 130/38 kts and 1010.8 mb at 10/0600 UTC.  The LOW then continued
  moving rapidly southeastward and by 1200 UTC on the 11th was located
  approximately midway between Noumea and Norfolk Island.

     The strongest 10-min mean wind reports on the east coast of
  Australia were at Cape Moreton AWS (WMO 94594):  140/42 kts at 1504 UTC
  on the 11th and 120/41 kts at 0521 UTC on the 10th; and 160/43 kts
  at 11/0208 UTC from Double Island Point AWS (WMO 94584).  Little
  impact was felt on the Queensland coast.  Due to the rapid movement
  of the LOW and the tendency for the strongest winds to be oriented
  parallel with respect to the coast, the seas were not exceptionally
  large.  The largest peak wave height on the wave rider buoy east of
  Brisbane was 6 metres.    The Byron Bay buoy peaked at just over
  7 metres, being a little more open to the southerly swell generated
  deep in the Tasman Sea.      (A thanks to Jeff for sending me this

  SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones



     For the upcoming Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season I am
  planning to implement a slight change to the manner in which I group
  and report Southern Hemisphere cyclones.    As noted in the recent 
  Southern Hemisphere seasonal review for 1999-2000, the basins will be 
  defined as follows:

  SWI - Southwest Indian Ocean - West of 90E
  AUW - Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean - 90E to 135E
  AUE - Northeast Australia/Coral Sea - 135E to 160E
  SPA - South Pacific Ocean - East of 160E

  Note that I have made a slight change to the identifiers for the
  Southwest Indian and South Pacific Oceans to better reflect the
  most commonly-used terminology for those regions:  SWI and SPA
  instead of SIO and SWP.

     The tropical cyclogenetical regions of the Northern Hemisphere are
  rather neatly divided into distinct basins by landmasses or, in one
  instance, by a stretch of thousands of miles of the North Pacific where
  tropical cyclone formation is very rare.   But the Southern Hemisphere
  is not thusly divided.  Tropical cyclones form in a continuous band
  beginning in the Mozambique Channel and continuing eastward across the
  vast South Indian Ocean, through the seas and gulfs off northern
  Australia, across the Coral Sea and into the South Pacific proper to
  well east of the Dateline, and in certain years extending even further
  eastward into the region of French Polynesia.  The Southern Hemisphere
  cyclogenetical zone spans nearly 200 degress of longitude, and it is
  neither practical nor desirable to consider it as a single basin for
  cyclone reporting or statistical studies.

     Several different schemes for divvying up the Southern Hemisphere
  into tropical cyclone basins have been followed, including:

  A. JTWC's Operational Plan
     1. South Indian Ocean - West of 135E
     2. South Pacific Ocean - East of 135E

  B. JTWC's Statistical Plan in their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports
     1. South Indian Ocean - West of 105E
     2. Australian Region - 105E to 165E
     3. South Pacific Ocean - East of 165E

  C. Plan followed by Charlie Neumann in the "Global Guide to Tropical
     Cyclone Forecasting"
     1. South Indian Ocean - West of 100E
     2. Southeast Indian and Northern Australia - 100E to 142E
     3. Northeastern Australia and South Pacific - East of 142E
        (Note: 142E lies essentially along the Cape York Peninsula.)

  D. Current Boundaries of Various Warning Centre's AORs
     1. Southwest Indian - West of 90E
     2. Australian Region - 90E to 160E
     3. South Pacific - East of 160E
        (Note: The western boundary of Perth's AOR was originally 75E
         prior to around 1970, then 80E for the 1970s and 1980s until
         being set at 90E in the early 1990s.)

     When I began writing the global tropical cyclone summaries in late
  1997, I opted to follow Plan D in order to keep the cyclones grouped
  together that were warned on by particular national meteorological
  services.  I could see some merit to each of the other plans, but this
  one seemed simplest and was adequate for my purposes.   The only change
  I'm making is to divide the Australian Region into two sub-regions
  along 135E.  When reporting the cyclones for a given month within
  the Australian Region, this will prevent the "leapfrogging" back and
  forth that often occurs when reporting storms chronologically for the
  whole region.

     A study of cyclone tracks in the Australian Region dating back to
  1960 revealed that the Arafura Sea north of the Northern Territory's
  Top End in the vicinity of 135E is an area of minimum tropical cyclone
  formation and movement.   Gulf of Carpentaria cyclones seem to have
  more in common with Coral Sea systems, especially with regard to
  intensity, than with those of the Timor Sea.  Very intense cyclones
  seem to be rather rare in the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria, but 
  occur quite frequently in the waters off Western Australia. 

     I specifically made tallies of cyclone tracks falling into three
  groups:  (1) storms which crossed 135E (moving either east or west)
  over water north of the Northern Territory, (2) systems which crossed
  135E over land and re-emerged over water (mostly westward movers but
  2 or 3 moved southeastward from the Arafura Sea over the Top End and
  entered the Gulf of Carpentaria), and (3) cyclones which crossed the
  Cape York Peninsula moving in either direction.  

     The results were:

  (1) Crossed 135E over water:  16
  (2) Crossed 135E over land:   11
  (3) Crossed Cape York Peninsula:  34 

  Of the 34 systems which crossed the Cape York Peninsula, 5 crossed
  the peninsula twice, moving in each direction.  

     I realize that using 135E as a line of demarcation for reporting
  purposes will break Darwin's AOR into two regions, but the Darwin AOR
  is an area of very low cyclone formation frequency with usually only
  one or two cyclones forming per season.  This past season there were
  none.   The majority of tropical cyclones forming in the Darwin region
  fall into two distinct groups: (1) those which form in and make land-
  fall along the shores of the Gulf of Carpentaria (a few of which
  eventually reach the Timor Sea or move eastward and enter the South
  Pacific Ocean), and (2) those which form north of the Top End and move
  westward over water into the Timor Sea or else strike the Northern
  Territory's northern coastline.


                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long, but since June was a
  relatively quiet month, I have included the Glossary at the end of
  this summary following the Author's Note.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to: []
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           June as an example:   jun00.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  jun00.sum, for

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael
  Pitt, and Rich Henning):>> OR>>>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its website the
  complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 1999 (1998-1999
  season for the Southern Hemisphere).  Also, ATCRs for earlier years
  are available also.

     The URL is:>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 1999
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available.

     The URL is:>

  Prepared by: Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)



  AOML/HRD - Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/
             Hurricane Research Division, located on Virginia Key, Miami,
             Florida, U.S.A.

  AOR -     area of responsibility

  CDO -     central dense overcast

  CI -      current intensity

  CIMSS -   Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
            (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  CP -      central pressure

  CPHC -    Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A.

  FLW -     flight level wind (or winds)

  FTP -     file transfer protocol

  HPC -     Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs,

  IMD -     India Meteorological Department (RSMC New Delhi, India)

  ITCZ -    Intertropical Convergence Zone

  JMA -     Japanese Meteorological Agency (RSMC Tokyo, Japan)

  JTWC -    Joint Typhoon Warning Center, formerly on Guam, now at
            Pearl Harbor, Hawaii

  kt -      knot = 1 nautical mile per hour

  LLCC -    low-level circulation center
  m -       meter, or metre

  mb -      millibar, numerically equivalent to hectopascal (hPa)

  MFR -     Meteo France on Reunion Island

  mm -      millimeter

  MSW -     maximum sustained wind(s) (either 1-min avg or 10-min avg)

  nm -      nautical mile = 6076.12 feet or 1852.0 meters

  NPMOC -   Naval Pacific Meteorological and Oceanographic Center, Pearl
            Harbor, Hawaii, U.S.A.

  PAGASA -  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services

  RSMC -    Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

  SPCZ -    South Pacific Convergence Zone

  SST -     sea surface temperature

  STS -     severe tropical storm (MSW greater than 47 kts)

  STWO -    Significant Tropical Weather Outlook - bulletin issued
            daily by JTWC giving information about various areas of
            disturbed weather and the potential for tropical cyclone

  TC -      tropical cyclone

  TCWC -    Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (generic term)

  TD -      tropical depression

  TPC/NHC - Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami,
            Florida, U.S.A.

  TS -      tropical storm

  WFO -     Weather Forecast Office

  WMO -     World Meteorological Organization, headquartered at Geneva,

  UTC -     Universal Time Coordinated, equivalent to Greenwich Mean Time
            or Zulu (Z)

Document: summ0006.htm
Updated: 4th January 2007

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