Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200102 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTXS21 PGTW 20001111 08:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S7 81.7E6 TO 12.3S6 78.5E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110631Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3 81.2E1.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 82.1E2 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3 81.2E1, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EAST OF THE PRIMARY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH. THE UW-CIMSS AND 200
MB ANALYSES INDICATE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
FAIR OUTFLOW OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120800Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001112 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 10.9S0 79.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 79.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 11.1S3 78.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 11.4S6 76.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.8S0 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.2S5 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 78.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), ABOUT 120 NM IN DIAMETER,
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM 37GHZ) PASS REVEALED A DEVELOPING PRIMARY
BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE VORTEX FROM THE EAST SEMI-
CIRCLE. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110751Z NOV 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 110800) NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1).// 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001112 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 11.2S4 79.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 79.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 11.6S8 78.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 12.0S3 77.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.5S8 75.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 12.9S2 74.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5  79.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 1207Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION PASS HAD DEPICTED A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 131500Z0
(DTG 131351Z4).// 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001113 03:00z AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 9.8S7 79.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 79.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 9.5S4 80.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR  9.7S6  80.1E9.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND
RELOCATED ABOUT 110 NM NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S
IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND
HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130230Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE LLCC. CONVECTION IS NOW
DISPLACED ABOUT 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 02S SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//