[Index]
Tropical Cyclone BINDU
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone BINDU [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS22 PGTW 20010107 00:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 062351Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052351Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 060000)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S3 78.7E2 TO 11.9S1 74.2E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062330Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 77.7E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A REGION OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061727Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080000Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010107 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 11.9S1 73.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 73.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 12.4S7 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 13.2S6 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 13.9S3 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 14.7S2 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 73.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 071614Z9 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
LLCCS ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH WITHIN THE AREA. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 30.0S3. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 062351Z7 JAN 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 070000) NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1)
AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010108 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 13.6S0 73.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 73.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.6S1 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.4S0 72.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.9S5 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.1S8 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT
IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE 36-HOUR POINT. AFTERWARDS
TC 05S SHOULD TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010108 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 15.2S8 73.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 73.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.8S4 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 16.3S0 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.5S2 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.5S2 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 73.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 05S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
POINT. AFTERWARDS TC 05S SHOULD TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010109 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 15.7S3 72.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 72.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.8S4 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.0S7 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.1S8 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.2S9 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 72.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A 10 NM RAGGED EYE. A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
EYEWALL. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND 100900Z0 (DTG
100751Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010109 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 16.2S9 72.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 72.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.5S2 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.6S3 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.7S4 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.7S4 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 72.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091716Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A 12 NM CLOUD FILLED EYE. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN WEAK STEERING
FLOW THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. TC 05S WILL THEN TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN, JUST SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4) AND 102100Z4 (DTG
101951Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010110 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 16.3S0 73.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 73.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.1S8 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.2S9 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.7S4 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.5S3 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 72.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS NO EYE
FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ANY LONGER. A MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DIP SOUTHWARD AFTER THE 24 HOUR
TIMEFRAME AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN A
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010110 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 72.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 72.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.7S4 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 17.0S8 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.6S4 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.4S3 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 72.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A 101610Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THAT THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT WAS VIRTUALLY CONVECTION FREE. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS MODERATE
UPPER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER THE REGION. TC 05S IS TRACKING
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG
111951Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010111 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 16.7S4 71.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 71.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 17.1S9 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.4S2 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.0S9 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.6S5 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 71.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
A 110423Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND EAST OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, UNDER A COL REGION.
TC 05S IS TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC
05S SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8) AND
120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010111 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 16.9S6 70.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 70.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.3S1 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.0S9 67.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 18.2S1 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 69.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. A 111641Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE
WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH QUADRANT. A LARGE
FEEDER BAND WAS ALSO EVIDENT EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF TC 05S ALONG 35.0S8 HAS
INFLUENCED THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 05S SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S SHOULD
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6) AND 122100Z6 (DTG
121951Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010112 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 17.3S1 69.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 69.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.0S9 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.6S5 67.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.0S0 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.4S4 64.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 69.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW HAS A 13 NM RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
A 120019Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED A WELL
DEFINED PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM
THE SOUTH QUADRANT, AND DEEPENING EYEWALL CONVECTION. A LARGE FEEDER
BAND WAS ALSO EVIDENT EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF TC 05S ALONG 35.0S8 HAS INFLUENCED
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 05S SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010112 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.1S0 69.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 69.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.0S0 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.8S8 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 20.3S5 67.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 20.7S9 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 69.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW HAS A 15 NM RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
A WELL DEFINED PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER
FROM THE SOUTH QUADRANT, AND DEEPENING EYEWALL CONVECTION IS ALSO
EVIDENT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF TC 05S ALONG 35.0S8
WILL INFLUENCED THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER
THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 05S SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7) AND
132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010113 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 19.1S1 68.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 68.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.5S5 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 19.6S6 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.0S2 63.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 68.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AS WELL AS ITS RAGGED EYE. AN SLOT OF DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS IS ENHANCING
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AS WELL AS SUBSIDING DRY AIR INTO THE INFLOW
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INITIALLY
THEN TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER A
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0) AND
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010113 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 19.4S4 68.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 68.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.9S9 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 20.5S7 66.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.0S3 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.2S5 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 68.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AS WELL AS ITS RAGGED EYE. A SLOT OF DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AS WELL AS SUBSIDING DRY AIR INTO THE INFLOW
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY, THEN
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010114 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 20.0S2 69.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 69.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 21.0S3 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.2S5 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 22.0S4 64.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 23.5S0 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 68.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY, THEN TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, COMPLETELY DECOUPLES THE LLCC FROM ITS CONVECTION. A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE,
THEN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GAIN LATITUDE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG
141951Z1) AND 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010114 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 20.4S6 68.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 68.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.2S5 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 22.0S4 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.7S1 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.5S0 63.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 67.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9) AND
152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010115 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 19.9S9 65.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 65.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.5S7 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.2S6 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 24.0S6 60.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 26.6S4 59.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG
151951Z2) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010115 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 20.5S7 64.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 64.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 21.6S9 63.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.3S8 61.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 25.3S0 61.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 27.4S3 60.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 64.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 151740Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION ELONGATED SOUTHEASTWARD. A 151305Z5 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW AND
GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC, EQUATORWARD OF A HIGH SITUATED
NEAR 37S0 65E1. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND IS ALSO
FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0) AND 162100Z0 (DTG
161951Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010116 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 21.8S1 62.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 62.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 22.7S1 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 23.9S4 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 61.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160531Z6 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A 060130Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS
OF 35 AND 40 KNOTS. A 060347Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE REGION. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY THE 24 HR POSITION OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG
161951Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20010116 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 22.7S1 60.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 60.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 24.2S8 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 26.5S3 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 60.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED ABOUT 90 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 161725Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A WEAK FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE
161800Z6 SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A WEAKENING, BROAD LLCC. THE
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE REGION. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY THE 24 HR POSITION OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
|
Document: bindu.htm
Updated: 14th April, 2004 |
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