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Tropical Cyclone RITA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] 
WTPS21 PHNC 20010301 16:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S5 136.6W6 TO 23.7S2
135.0W9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 011231Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 19.5S5 135.4W3.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.  THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR
021200Z5.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE 445 NM NORTHEAST OF
PITCAIRN ISLAND. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION ISOLATED IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMIGERY INDICATES THAT
THE CIRCULATION IS ON THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES
REF A.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021630Z2.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 001 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PHNC 20010302 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 20.6S8 134.7W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 134.7W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 21.8S1 135.0W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 23.2S7 136.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 25.2S9 136.6W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 27.1S0 136.8W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED 150 NM NORTH OF GAMBIER
ISLAND IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 3 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS ELONGATING
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND
030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  13P (PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS 31 PHNC 20010302 21:00z    
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 21.9S2 135.2W1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 135.2W1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 23.1S6 135.6W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 24.7S3 136.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED 73 NM NORTH OF RIKITEA, 
GAMBIER ISLAND, FRENCH POLYNESIA IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS 
TRACKED SOUTH AT 3 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED 
INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO 
UNCOUPLE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED 
TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 
IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE 
END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P 
(PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PHNC 20010303 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 23.5S0 135.3W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE

045 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 135.3W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 25.3S0 136.1W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 27.3S2 136.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 29.8S9 135.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 32.2S7 135.2W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF
RIKITEA, GAMBIER ISLAND, FRENCH POLYNESIA IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WINDS AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. TC 14P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE
36 TO 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  13P (PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20010303 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 24.8S4 136.3W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S4 136.3W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 26.9S7 136.8W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   01800Z3 --- 29.0S1 136.7W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 31.4S8 136.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 34.1S8 134.9W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF
RIKITEA, GAMBIER ISLAND, FRENCH POLYNESIA IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 031531Z3
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED STRONGER WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. WINDS WERE RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST.
LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37.OS0 119.5W5 AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS THAT TC 14P IS WITHIN
A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 14P SHOULD BEGIN
EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  13P (PAULA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20010304 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 26.5S3 136.7W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S3 136.7W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 28.5S5 136.8W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 30.4S7 136.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 32.4S9 135.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 34.2S9 134.9W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
RIKITEA, GAMBIER ISLAND, FRENCH POLYNESIA IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. LOW/MID LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35.OS8 119.5W6 AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD.
AFTERWARDS, WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TC 14P
SHOULD INCREASE SPEED AND TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. 200 MB ANAL
REVEALS THAT TC 14P IS WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THEREFORE, LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TC 14P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20010304 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 29.3S4 136.6W6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S4 136.6W6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 31.0S4 136.3W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 32.8S3 136.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 35.2S0 134.5W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041722Z6 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH ASYMMETRIC ORIENTED CONVECTION DISPLACED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES WIDESPREAD OPEN-CELL CUMULUS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS, AND
NWP INDICATE THAT TC 14P IS NOW LOCATED ON THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR
LINE EXTENDING FROM A BAROCLINIC LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEREFORE BEGIN TO INFLUENCE A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 14P SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND
052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (PAULA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20010305 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (RITA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 31.7S1 135.6W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7S1 135.6W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 33.3S9 134.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 34.9S6 133.7W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 36.4S3 131.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (RITA), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTED AN EXPOSED, RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WIDESPREAD OPEN-CELL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS, AND NWP INDICATE THAT
TC 14P IS NOW LOCATED ON THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM
A BAROCLINIC LOW SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD THEREFORE BEGIN TO INFLUENCE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC
14P HAS COMPLETED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
Document: rita.htm
Updated: 14th April, 2004
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