[Index]
Tropical Cyclone SAM
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone SAM [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20001204 17:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041651Z DEC 00//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S3 125.9E7 TO 15.3S9
118.1E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 041630Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 125.5E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION JUST OFF OF THE KIMBERLEY COAST NEAR KURI BAY, WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER LAND JUST SOUTH OF KURI BAY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051700Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001205 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 14.7S2 124.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 124.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 14.9S4 123.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.1S7 122.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.3S9 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.4S0 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 124.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING OVER THE KIMBERLEY COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S, LOCATED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KURI BAY, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 042330Z2 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 35 KNOTS. A
042122Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A
DEVELOPING PRIMARY BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE PASS ALSO
REVEALED AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INTERACTION BETWEEN A MONSOON
TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA
SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC
03S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041651Z DEC 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 041700) NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001205 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 14.5S0 123.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 123.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 14.7S2 122.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.1S7 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.7S3 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.2S9 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 123.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH
OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 050958Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 03S (SAM) IS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER 15 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH APPEARS
TO BE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. INTERACTION BETWEEN A MONSOON
TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA
SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG
060151Z3) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001206 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 14.9S4 122.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 122.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.3S9 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.9S5 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.3S0 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.8S5 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 122.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A DEVELOPING PRIMARY BAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. INTERACTION BETWEEN A MONSOON TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST INFLUENCES THE STEERING
FLOW. TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001206 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.3S9 121.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 121.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.8S4 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.2S9 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.7S4 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.2S0 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 121.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 04
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BAND CURVATURE. A 060945Z4
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND OF
CONVECTION WEST WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 03S
(SAM) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001207 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.9S6 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.2S0 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.7S5 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.0S9 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 121.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WITH BANDING EYE
FEATURE. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATED AN EYE FEATURE
FORMING OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT,
INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC
03S (SAM) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SLOW SPEED OF ADVANCE IS DUE TO A LOSS OF
STEERING FLOW, AS AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY, UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
SEVERELY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001207 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.7S5 121.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 121.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.3S2 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.1S1 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 20.1S3 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 21.2S5 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 120.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND AND A 20NM EYE
FEATURE. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATED AN EYE FEATURE
FORMING OVER THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT,
INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC
03S (SAM) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SLOW SPEED OF ADVANCE IS DUE TO A LOSS OF
STEERING FLOW, AS AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY, UNTIL
IT APPROACH LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001207 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 17.9S7 120.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 120.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.4S3 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.1S1 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.0S2 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.1S4 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 120.6E9.
OFF TIME WARNING ISSUED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM), DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED ON A 12 HOURLY BASIS AT 0900Z9 AND 2100Z3. TC 03S
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 105 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A WELL DEFINED 25
NM EYE FEATURE. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT, INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 03S (SAM) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCES THE WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY, UNTIL LANDFALL, AT APPROXIMATELY 090500Z4,
THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071800Z6 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND
082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001208 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 18.3S2 121.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 121.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.8S7 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.4S4 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 20.2S4 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 20.9S1 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 121.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
080530Z6 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A WELL DEFINED 15 NM EYE
FEATURE. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT, INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 03S (SAM) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS
AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCES THE WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY, UNTIL LANDFALL, AT APPROXIMATELY
081800Z7, THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z3 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001208 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.2S4 122.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.1S4 122.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 121.8E2.
THE EYE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM) MOVED ONSHORE AT 081100Z0
ABOUT 20 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA GRANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE 125 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS. TC 03S, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 88 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION
AND BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS A
STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND NORTHWEST OF THE EYE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR LA
GRANGE BAY. TC 03S (SAM) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20001209 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SAM) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 20.3S5 122.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 122.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.2S5 123.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 122.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (SAM) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK INLAND OVER
THE GREAT SANDY DESERT, AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. TC 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
WEAKENING CONVECTION, HOWEVER, TC 03S STILL HAS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
BANDING. TC 03S (SAM) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, FURTHER
INLAND, AND TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN).//
|
Document: sam.htm
Updated: 14th April, 2004 |
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