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Tropical Cyclone SOSE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
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Tropical Cyclone SOSE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS22 PGTW 20010404 19:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041921Z APR 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 041930)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S5 164.3E4 TO 12.9S2
168.0E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041630Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S3 167.3E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NORTHERN VANAUATU, HAS CONTINUED
TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
RECENT SYNOPTIC AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051930Z8.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 136.8E8
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010405 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 14.0S5 165.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 165.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.1S6 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM
ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.6S1 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM
ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.2S8 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM
ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.5S2 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM
ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM
ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 165.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CORAL SEA JUST NORTH OF VANUATU. TC 19P HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSTION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. INFRARED ANIMATION
DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION COVERAGE DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 19P SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 12 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041922Z
APR 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 041930)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010406 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 13.6S0 165.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 165.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.0S5 164.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.0S6 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.2S9 163.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.9S7 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 165.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE), LOCATED ABOUT 95 NM NORTHWEST OF
VANUATU,HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 2 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS OF
25 AND 48 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED CONVECTION
COVERAGE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010406 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 14.6S1 165.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 165.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.6S2 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.5S2 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.5S3 165.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.4S3 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 165.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE), LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM WEST OF VANUATU,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS AND A SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS OF 48 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION AND
INCREASED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010407 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 15.7S3 166.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 166.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.5S2 167.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.2S0 167.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.0S9 167.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.0S0 167.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 166.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE), LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ESPIRITU SANTO
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. A 062213Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
REVEALED DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM AND A PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
BUILDS IN BELOW THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010407 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 17.8S6 167.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 167.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.3S3 168.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.5S7 169.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.6S9 170.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.5S9 170.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 168.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SOSE), LOCATED JUST WEST OF EFATE ISLAND,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
071800Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 70 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TC 19P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AND MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH THE NEW HEBRIDES ISLANDS. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF TC 19P WILL BEGIN TO FILL AFTER 24 HOURS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. TC 19P WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010408 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 19.6S6 167.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 167.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.5S7 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.4S7 168.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.3S7 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.3S8 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 168.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHEAST
OF NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATIONS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
AFFECTING TC 19P. A 072101Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION
(TRMM) PASS REVEALED DEEP CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
EYEWALL AND A WEAK BANDING FEATURE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AS A DYNAMIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STEERS THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010408 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 20.7S9 169.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 169.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.9S2 170.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 23.2S7 170.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 24.4S0 169.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 25.6S3 169.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.0S3 169.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SOSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHEAST OF NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 9 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATIONS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
AFFECTING TC 19P. A 081320Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION
(TRMM) PASS REVEALED A 24 NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL AND A WEAK BANDING FEATURE TO THE EAST.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE TURNING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A DYNAMIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STEERS THE SYSTEM.
TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010409 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 22.0S4 170.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 170.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 23.0S5 170.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 24.0S6 170.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 25.0S7 170.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 26.0S8 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.3S7 170.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SOSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 19P. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS
AND IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010409 21:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 23.4S9 170.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S9 170.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 24.5S1 169.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 25.5S2 169.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 27.3S2 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 29.6S7 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 170.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SOSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
OF 40 KNOTS (10-MIN MEAN). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
19P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. JUSTIFICATION FOR
COR: CHANGE 091130Z4 TO 091730Z0 IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010410 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 24.5S1 169.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 169.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 25.9S6 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 27.7S6 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 30.8S1 168.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 35.9S7 171.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.8S4 169.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SOSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
100530Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL
ANIMATION AND A 092219Z3 SSM/I PASS DEPICT A POORLY DEFINED, EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
DOWNSHEAR APPROXIMATELY 48 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z7 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010410 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 25.7S4 170.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S4 170.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 27.1S0 170.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 30.1S4 170.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 33.8S4 172.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 38.1S2 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 26.0S8 170.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SOSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEFORE TURNING
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTH BY THE 12 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z1 AND 112100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20010411 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 26.4S2 169.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 169.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 27.2S1 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 169.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SOSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL
ANIMATION AND A 102205Z0 SSM/I PASS DEPICT A BROAD, CONVECTION-FREE,
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DECOUPLED
APPROXIMATELY 95 NM TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. REINTENSIFICATION AS
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
|
Document: sose.htm
Updated: 14th April, 2004 |
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