[Index]
Tropical Cyclone VINCENT
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone VINCENT [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20010212 02:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 15.8S4 110.8E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112330Z0 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5 110.8E0. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN,
410 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE
LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS CLEARLY
DEPICTS A 20 KNOT LLCC. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130200Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020212 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120200Z FEB 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 14.9S4 110.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 110.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 14.3S8 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 14.4S9 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.2S8 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.5S2 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 111.1E4.
TC 09S (VINCENT) HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF A CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS
INDICATED A WELL DEFINED LLCC AS WELL. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 08P WILL SERVE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 120200Z5 FEB 01
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 120200) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WINSOME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010212 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 14.9S4 112.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 112.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 15.3S9 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.9S5 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.3S0 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.8S5 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 113.0E5.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 TO 45 KTS. A 121422Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09S
IS DEVELOPING A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR INDICATES RESTRICTED OUTFLOW SOUTH WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE
FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010213 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 15.1S7 115.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 115.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.6S2 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.1S8 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.7S4 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.4S2 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 115.8E5.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL
ANIMATION DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM TO THE
WEST. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD,
WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRONG
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09S SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SYSTEM BY MID PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z0 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0) AND
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010213 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 117.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 117.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.2S9 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 17.3S1 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.3S2 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.6S6 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 117.4E3.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 45 KTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 40 NM
WEST. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A
HIGH OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD, WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 09S SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SYSTEM BY MID PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG
140751Z8) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010214 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 16.3S0 118.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 118.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 17.1S9 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.0S9 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 20.7S9 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 119.1E2.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTH OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS
OF 35 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NEW DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
ABOUT 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THEN, TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 09S SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1) AND 150900Z5 (DTG
150751Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010214 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 16.7S4 120.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 120.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.5S3 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.6S5 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.8S8 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 21.4S7 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 120.2E5.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25
KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 7 NM TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD,
WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRONG
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN, TC 09S SHOULD
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09S SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS BACK OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG
150751Z9) AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010215 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 17.3S1 119.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 119.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.1S0 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.2S2 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 20.3S5 118.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 21.3S6 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 119.5E6.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWARD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TC 09S
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES LAND FALL, MAKE LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 161800Z6 NEAR PORT HEADLAND, THEN BEGIN DISSIPATING
OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2) AND 160900Z6 (DTG
160751Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010215 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 008A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 19.5S5 122.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE , RADAR, AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 122.2E7
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 21.1S4 123.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 122.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, WAS RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED, AND HAS MOVED OVER LAND. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 151800Z5 SYNOPTIC DATA, 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND RADAR. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 KNOTS. TC
09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
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Document: vincent.htm
Updated: 14th April, 2004 |
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