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Tropical Cyclone IKALA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
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[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone IKALA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS22 PGTW 20020323 12:00z
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 232330Z MAR 02
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 11.5S7 76.4E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231730Z6 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 77.4E8. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4S2
80.9E7, IS NOW NEAR 10.0S1 77.5E9, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN MINOR
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). HOWEVER ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETRY PASSES ALSO INDICATE A BROAD LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE
PRODUCTS INDICATE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASING TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242330Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020324 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232330Z MAR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 10.4S5 75.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 75.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 11.3S5 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 12.3S6 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 13.4S8 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.3S8 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 75.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 VISUAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 12 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 232330Z
MAR 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 232330) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020324 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 11.3S5 74.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 74.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 12.4S7 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 13.4S8 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.2S7 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.0S6 69.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 74.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VARIOUS AREAS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY LARGE LLCC
WITH WINDS IN AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND A LARGE
AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS IN THE CENTER. HIGHER WINDS ARE
EVIDENT WITHIN THE CONVECTION. IN THE AREAS OF CONVECTION. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL,
AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6 AND 252100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020325 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 11.8S0 72.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 72.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 12.8S1 71.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 13.7S1 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.7S2 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 15.7S3 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 72.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK BANDING
FEATURES ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM BOTH THE NORTHEAST
AND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN EAST TO
WEST ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIGHT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOUND WITHIN
90 NM EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS EARLY THEN TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS
BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 AND 260900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020325 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 12.0S3 72.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 72.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 12.5S8 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 13.0S4 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.6S0 72.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.5S0 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 72.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A WEAK BANDING
FEATURE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC OR THE POSSIBILITY OF DUAL
CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020326 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 13.5S9 73.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 73.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.0S6 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 15.9S5 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 16.5S2 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 17.1S9 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 73.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. LATEST
ANIMATED IMAGERY IS NOW INDICATING A RAGGED EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING
IN TC 20S. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW
FORWARD SPEED AS A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD INHIBITING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF TC 20S
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS
BECOMING INHIBITED BY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH THE MEDIUM/DEEP BETA
ADVECTION MODELS AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 21 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING BY THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(FLENUMMETOCCEN DATA MONTEREY CA). FUTURE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER PEARL HARBOR UNDER THE SAME MANOP
HEADER (WTXS31 PGTW). NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020326 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 15.2S8 74.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 74.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 16.1S8 74.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 17.0S8 74.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 17.8S6 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.6S5 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 74.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261730Z9 INFRARED AND A 261701Z7 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 75 KNOTS. THE 2617091Z6 MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS INTO TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER, TC 20S FORWARD SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL SLOW AS A LOW TO
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD INHIBITING ITS POLEWARD
MOVEMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AFTERWARDS, TC 20S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHEAR THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
AVIATION, GFDL, UKMET SPECTRAL, AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS
MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND THE DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND
272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020327 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 16.2S9 75.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 75.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 17.3S1 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 18.2S1 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.0S0 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.8S8 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 75.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
270530Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 270412Z6 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS REVEALS A 21 NM EYE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS A RESULT OF
INTERACTION WITH THE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE ENTERING THE
WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET
SPECTRAL, GFDN AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020327 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 17.4S2 76.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 76.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 18.1S0 77.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.7S6 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.4S4 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 19.9S9 77.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 76.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
MICROWAVE AND 271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 115 KNOTS. A 271459Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION
(TRMM) PASS REVEALS THAT THERE IS NO LONGER AN EYE FEATURE AND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE MID-LEVEL HAS ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS KEPT THE CURRENT SOA WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. TC 20S SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED AND ENTRAINS COOLER AIR. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THEN, AS IT
WEAKENS, THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD STEER IT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET SPECTRAL, AFWA MM5, NGPS, GFDN
AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271800Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020328 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 18.9S8 77.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 77.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 20.1S3 78.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.9S1 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 21.6S9 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 22.9S3 75.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 78.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A
280553Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED TO THE
NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX AND THAT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 20S HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 20S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE AND ENTRAIN
COOLER AIR. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND
THEN TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET SPECTRAL, NGPS, GFDN AND
THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 290900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020328 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 20.2S4 80.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 80.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 22.0S4 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 80.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND A 281631Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI)
PASS REVEALED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE LLCC. EARLIER ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT TC 20S HAS LINKED UP WITH THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HAS UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET SPECTRAL, NGPS, GFDN AND THE MEDIUM BETA
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 24
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Document: ikala.html
Updated: 29th March, 2002 |
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