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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 2002
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                   MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
                     
                                 JUNE, 2002
                                

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                             JUNE HIGHLIGHTS
                      
  --> Tropics rather quiet--two named storms in North Pacific

  *************************************************************************

                 ***** Feature of the Month for June *****

              PATTERNS OF ATLANTIC INTENSE HURRICANE ACTIVITY


     I had something else planned for the Feature of the Month spot, but
  it will require some more work and correspondence, so in the interest
  of getting the June summary out quickly, I'm substituting a "quickie".
  This is an updating and revision of a response I'd written to an e-mail
  posted on the WX-TALK discussion list several years ago.  This dates
  back to June, 1997, and a couple of messages had been posted on the
  discussion list with which I disagreed, and so I wrote a rebuttal of
  sorts, utilizing some statistics which I'd gleaned from the annual
  track charts and the Best Track file.

     The e-mails in question had made statements such as:  (1) "With the
  exception of Gilbert, there has been a notable absence of hurricanes,
  especially westward-moving hurricanes, in the Caribbean."; and a reply
  to that one (2) "This is very true.  There has been a decided absence
  of westward-moving, classic hurricanes penetrating the Caribbean and
  reaching the Gulf of Mexico over the past 30 or so years."  There was
  a decided drop in the overall number of intense hurricanes (IH), storms
  which reach Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale, after the
  mid-1960s.  But what is often overlooked is that from the mid-1960s
  through the late 1980s, there was an INCREASE in major hurricanes
  moving through the central Caribbean as compared with the period 1944-
  1965.   Below are presented three different measures which indicate
  that the oft-referred to "downturn" period of the late 1960s through the
  1980s was actually a more active period for IHs in certain portions of
  the basin.

     For purposes of this discussion I have defined an Atlantic intense
  hurricane as a system which moved westward north of the easternmost
  tip of the island of Hispaniola of at least tropical depression intensity
  and was at Category 3+ status at some point west of there.  A Caribbean
  intense hurricane is a storm which moved westward south of the eastern-
  most tip of Hispaniola and was of Category 3+ intensity west of that
  point.  I began with 1944 as that was the year in which aerial recon-
  naissance of tropical cyclones was initiated on a regular basis and the
  intensities can be considered somewhat reliable.    During the period
  1944-1962, the only examples of Caribbean IHs are (** indicates that
  the storm was of hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico):

     Storm #4, 1944
     Charlie, 1951 **
     Hazel, 1954
     Janet, 1955 **

  From 1963-1998, the cases are:

     Flora, 1963
     Cleo, 1964
     Inez, 1966 **
     Beulah, 1967 **
     Edith, 1971 **
     Carmen, 1974 **
     Greta, 1978
     David, 1979
     Frederic, 1979 **
     Allen, 1980 **
     Emily, 1987
     Gilbert, 1988 **
     Joan, 1988

  However, from 1989 to the present the only examples are:

     Georges, 1998 **
     Iris, 2001

  Camille of 1969 and Celia of 1970 almost fit into this group, as they
  were strong tropical waves when they passed south of Hispaniola but did
  not develop circulations until in the western Caribbean.

     Another measure of the change in the pattern of IH tracks in the
  1960s was the marked increase in the number of IH landfalls along the
  U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline.  Between the Texas hurricane of August,
  1942, and Carla in 1961, the only IH to make landfall on the U. S.
  Gulf Coast west of Apalachicola was the anomalously early Audrey in
  June, 1957.  (Note:  The Texas hurricane of August, 1945, is currently
  classified as a Category 2 hurricane based on central pressure, but the
  Best Track file indicates significantly higher winds.  It is generally
  agreed that many of the MSW entries in the Best Track file for intense
  hurricanes are too high for years prior to around 1970.  It will be
  interesting to see how this hurricane is treated during the ongoing
  re-analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database.)

     From 1961 to 1985 there was a pronounced increase in major hurricanes
  making landfall along the central and western Gulf Coast:

     Carla, 1961                   Frederic, 1979
     Hilda, 1964                   Allen, 1980
     Betsy, 1965                   Alicia, 1983
     Camille, 1969                 Elena, 1985
     Celia, 1970                   Andrew, 1992
     Carmen, 1974                  Opal, 1995
     Eloise, 1975                  Bret, 1999

  With the exception of Betsy and Andrew, which entered the Gulf after
  crossing the southern Florida Peninsula, all these major Gulf Coast
  storms either originated in the Gulf of Mexico or came from the Caribbean
  (including Elena which moved right over central Cuba).

     The Mexican Gulf Coast and Central America are also regions which
  experienced an increase in IH landfalls after the mid-1960s.  The only
  IHs to strike those regions between 1944 and 1965 were Charlie of 1951,
  Janet of 1955, and Hattie of 1961.  Hurricanes Janet and Hattie were
  Category 5 hurricanes when they made landfall in Mexico (Yucatan) and
  Belize, respectively.  The Best Track file indicates that Hurricane
  Hilda of 1955 made landfall near Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane,
  although earlier it had been at Category 3 intensity in the Bay of
  Campeche.

     Since 1966 the following major hurricanes have struck Mexico and/or
  Central America:

     Inez, 1966         Mexico (Gulf)
     Ella, 1970         Mexico (Gulf)
     Edith, 1971        Central America
     Carmen, 1974       Mexico (Yucatan)
     Caroline, 1975     Mexico (Gulf)
     Anita, 1977        Mexico (Gulf)
     Greta, 1978        Central America
     Gilbert, 1988      Mexico (Yucatan and Gulf)
     Joan, 1988         Central America
     Roxanne, 1995      Mexico (Yucatan)
     Iris, 2001         Central America

  Two near-misses in recent years as far as IH landfalls go were Mitch in
  1998 and Keith in 2000.   The torrential rains of Mitch were responsible
  for catastrophic loss of life and damage in Honduras and Nicaragua, but
  the storm had weakened from its intense Category 5 status into a minimal
  hurricane by the time the center made landfall.  Keith was of Category 4
  intensity just off the southern Mexican Yucatan and northern Belize
  coastlines, but had weakened into a strong tropical storm by the time
  the center moved onshore.

     Given that there was an overall decrease in the total number of IHs
  after the mid-1960s, but a significant increase in the number moving
  along the central Caribbean track, it follows that there must have been
  a sharp decline in the number of Atlantic IHs moving north of Hispaniola.
  That is indeed the case.  During the 22 seasons from 1944 through 1965,
  there were 25 Atlantic IHs as I've defined above.  Indeed, Hurricanes
  Charlie of 1952 and Frances of 1961 could be counted in this category
  as they passed almost directly over the eastern tip of the Dominican
  Republic as tropical storms and reached Category 3 intensity in the
  western Atlantic.  Also, the very intense Hurricane Easy of 1951 all but
  reached the longitude of eastern Hispaniola, its point of recurvature
  being very slightly east of due north of that location.

     However, during the next 29 seasons (1966-1994) there were only ten
  Atlantic IHs.  After Faith of 1966, there was not another until Hurri-
  cane Eloise of 1975 which, ironically, ultimately became an IH in the
  Gulf of Mexico.  Of these ten storms, Ella of 1978 was a higher latitude
  development of subtropical origin, and Hurricane Kate of 1985 was an
  anomalously late-season storm in the latter part of November which
  followed a typical mid-season track into the Gulf of Mexico across
  the northern coast of Cuba.  This severe reduction in IHs tracking
  north of the Greater Antilles led to a complete absence of IH landfalls
  along the U. S. East Coast for a long period of time.  No IH struck the
  East Coast between Betsy of 1965 and Gloria of 1985 (and it's question-
  able whether or not Gloria was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, based
  on the Best Track intensities).   South Florida enjoyed a 27-year
  "vacation" between Betsy and Andrew in 1992.   South Carolina experienced
  a 30-year gap in IH landfalls between Gracie in 1959 and Hugo in 1989.
  New England enjoyed a 25-year break, at least in significant hurricane
  strikes, from 1960 (Donna) to 1985 (Gloria).  And Hurricane Fran in 1996
  was the first clear-cut major hurricane (wind-wise) to strike North
  Carolina since the mighty Hurricane Hazel of 1954.  

     Beginning with the hyperactive Atlantic season of 1995, however,
  there has been a big turnaround in these north-of-Hispaniola IH tracks.
  The 1995 and 1996 seasons alone produced seven such storms:  Felix, Luis,
  Marilyn, Bertha, Edouard, Fran and Hortense; and Bonnie of 1998 and
  Floyd of 1999 fall into this category also.  True, several of these were
  "squeakers".  Hortense almost passed directly over the tip of Hispaniola
  while Luis' and Marilyn's points of recurvature were not far to the
  west of the longitude of the eastern tip of the island.   But Bertha,
  Edouard and Fran of 1996 as well as Bonnie and Floyd followed the classic
  track with all but Edouard striking the U. S. along the North Carolina
  coastline (although only Fran was of Category 3 intensity at landfall).

     In their classic 1960 book, _Atlantic Hurricanes_, Dunn and Miller
  refer to a 1955 study by Dr. H. C. Willett entitled "A Study of Tropical
  Hurricanes Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States."
  The discussion was about possible climatic cycles which had led to the
  increase in strong hurricanes affecting the Middle Atlantic and New
  England areas since the mid-1930s.   Dunn and Miller state that Dr.
  Willett was a leading student of long-range weather trends, and to
  quote a portion of their discussion: "Dr. Willett forecasts an end to
  the present warm dry cycle within the immediate future and that within
  ten years (by 1965), hurricanes will return to their traditional track
  in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic....And along with
  this change in cycle would be associated a small but significant decrease
  in frequency."  The cases cited above seem to bear out this forecast:
  there was a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, especially in the
  1970s and 1980s, even with better detection tools, and there was a
  noticeable increase in hurricane tracks across the central Caribbean
  with storms affecting Central America, Mexico, and the central and
  western U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline in greater numbers than during
  the 1940s and 1950s.

     And just as the pattern which prevailed from the latter 1960s until
  1994 had been forecast well in advance, so also the pattern which
  abruptly began in 1995 was also forecast several years in advance.
  Around 1990, Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University
  and his seasonal forecasting team began predicting a return to the sort
  of conditions which had been prevalent during the 1940s, 1950s and early
  1960s.  Nine Atlantic IH tracks over five seasons (1995-1999), as
  compared with only 10 during the previous 29 seasons, certainly announce
  that a change in tropical Atlantic atmospheric conditions has occurred.
  And, as one might expect, there has been a decided drop-off in Caribbean
  IH tracks, the only ones since the two great Caribbean hurricanes of
  1988 being Georges and Iris, and of these, Georges barely qualified as
  it passed only a very short distance south of Hispaniola's eastern tip.

     This inverse relationship between East Coast and Gulf Coast IH land-
  falls has happened before.  Between 1906 and 1926 the U. S. East Coast
  enjoyed a complete hiatus in IH landalls.  But between 1909 and 1919,
  nine major hurricanes struck the central and western U. S. Gulf Coast,
  and another (in 1909) made landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico just
  south of the Rio Grande.  And of these 10 storms, all but two were of
  Atlantic tropical wave origin, passing through the central Caribbean
  and ultimately into the Gulf of Mexico.

     The very quiet period in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1940s and
  1950s was probably in part just good fortune.  Intense hurricanes which
  strike the central and western U. S. Gulf coastline as well as the upper
  Mexican coast may have traveled through the central Caribbean, but also
  storms originating in the Gulf and in the western Caribbean (such as
  Opal of 1995) may strike those areas.  Also the Gulf is subject to IH
  landfalls from storms moving through the Florida Straits or over the
  extreme southern portion of the Peninsula, e.g., Betsy and Andrew.
  Because of this, the frequency of IH landfalls along the Gulf Coast over
  several such multi-decadal cycles would not be expected to show as much
  variation as in certain other areas.

     However, throughout the entire 20th century, all of the IHs striking
  the U. S. East Coast--with three exceptions--formed in the Atlantic and
  moved westward north of the island of Hispaniola.  Therefore, when there
  is a major decline in the number of such storms for 2 or 3 decades, it
  follows that the East Coast will likely see very few landfalling IHs
  during that time.  But since the number of central Caribbean tracks
  appear to increase during such periods, the U. S. Gulf Coast as well as
  Mexico and Central America can expect to see a modest upswing in the
  number of intense landfalling hurricanes.  (Note:  The three exceptions
  referred to above are King of 1950, and Carol and Hazel of 1954.)



                      MINOR CORRECTION TO MAY FEATURE
                      -------------------------------

     In the May Feature of the Month I incorrectly stated that Michael V.
  Padua's Typhoon 2000 website had originated in 1998 as Typhoon '98.
  Michael informed me that actually he had launched it on 2 November 1997
  as Typhoon '97.

  *************************************************************************
  
                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


                     Atlantic Tropical Activity for June
                     -----------------------------------

     No tropical storms or depressions formed in the Atlantic during June,
  2002.  Over the period 1950-2001, 27 tropical storms have formed during
  June (0.52 per year) with 10 reaching hurricane intensity (0.19 per
  year).  During the past ten seasons there have been five tropical storms
  named in June--exactly the long-term average--but with only one reaching
  hurricane intensity.  The last June hurricane in the Atlantic was Hurri-
  cane Allison in 1995, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle near
  St. Marks as a strong tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Allison in 2001
  brought incredibly heavy rains to the Houston area, resulting in
  devastating floods with over 20 fatalities.  While no tropical cyclones
  formed during June, disturbed weather prevailed over the northwestern
  Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas
  for quite a few days during the month.  All this was due to tropical
  waves and surface troughs, in some cases interacting with upper-level
  LOWs.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for June:  1 tropical depression
                      1 tropical storm


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  noted.


                Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for June
                --------------------------------------------

     June tropical activity was below normal in the Eastern North Pacific.
  Over the period 1971-2001, June has produced an average of two tropical
  storms per year with one reaching hurricane intensity.  Only one fairly
  short-lived tropical storm formed during June, 2002.  There was also
  a tropical depression (TD-03E) which was active during the final days
  of the month.  The depression formed on 27 June about 950 nm southwest
  of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
  The system moved generally west-northwestward for a couple of days and
  remained poorly-organized, although it did produce some impressive
  bursts of deep convection.  By 0600 UTC on the 29th the depression had
  weakened into a remnant LOW about 1450 nm west-southwest of Cabo San
  Lucas, or about 1350 nm east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

     The summary below on Tropical Storm Boris was written by John Wallace
  of San Antonio, Texas.



                          TROPICAL STORM BORIS
                                (TC-02E)
                              8 - 11 June
                ----------------------------------------

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     The disturbance that became Boris was evident in satellite imagery
  as early as 3 June.  The disturbance remained disorganized for several
  days, probably due to land interaction as it straddled the southern
  coast of Mexico.  A very broad cyclonic circulation had appeared by
  6 June; the following day it finally tracked into the ocean and the
  system developed accordingly.  The first advisory on Tropical Depression
  Two-E was issued at 1715 UTC on 8 June when it was located 160 nm west of
  Acapulco, Mexico.  The depression tracked slowly west-northwestward,
  south of a weak ridge.  Inhibited by shear at first, it nevertheless
  became organized enough to warrant its upgrade to Tropical Storm Boris
  at 0300 UTC on 9 June, located 140 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico.


  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     The cyclone's proximity to land justified the issuance of a tropical
  storm watch for the coast, extending from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
  Corrientes, at 2100 UTC on the 8th.  It's bark proved worse than its
  bite, however, as Boris stalled on the 9th, sandwiched between ridges to
  its north and south.  Indeed, it remained stalled or quasi-stationary for
  the rest of its existence while stiff easterly shear gnawed away at its
  convection.  Boris still managed to reach a peak MSW of 50 kts at 1500
  UTC on 9 June, with an estimated CP of 997 mb, while located some 135 nm
  south of Manzanillo.  According to the advisory issued at this time, a
  QuikScat pass had revealed low-level winds of 50 kts--minus a closed
  circulation.

     Boris' intensity dropped immediately after its peak as strong easterly
  shear took its toll.  Ship ELYL8 reported a 39-kt MSW and a MSLP reading
  of 1003.8 mb 70 nm north of the center around 0000 UTC on the 10th; the
  storm had more life than its deteriorating satellite signature suggested.
  Even so, Boris weakened as it spun aimlessly offshore.  Though SSTs were
  warm, persistent shear prevented regeneration.  By 1500 UTC on the 10th,
  it was little more than a low-level vortex, devoid of deep convection.
  Boris was downgraded to a depression and all watches for the coast were
  dropped.    After a few intermittent bursts of convection, the final
  advisory on Tropical Depression Boris was issued at 2100 UTC on 11 June,
  placing the center about 185 nm west of Acapulco.   The remnant vortex
  had dissipated by the 13th.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     Both the Mexican National Meteorological Service and the NHC state
  that wind and rain affected the Mexican coast, but no casualties are
  known to have resulted.  According to the NHC, there was some relatively
  minor coastal damage to homes due to heavy rains.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for June:  2 tropical storms **
                      1 typhoon

  ** - both storms formed on 29 June and continued well into July and will
       be covered in the July summary
                     

                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).  A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


                Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for June
                --------------------------------------------

     Three tropical cyclones formed in Northwest Pacific waters during the
  month of June.  One of these, Noguri, became a small typhoon of moderate
  intensity early in the month, tracking out of the South China Sea and
  turning northward east of Taiwan, eventually passing west of Okinawa and
  weakening as it neared Japan.  The month was quiet across the western
  Pacific until the final days of the month.  Two systems formed simul-
  taneously, one in the Philippine Sea and one far to the east in the
  vicinity of Pohnpei.   Both were upgraded to tropical storm status by
  JMA at the same time with the westernmost depression being named
  Rammasun and the easternmost one Chataan.   Both cyclones subsequently
  reached typhoon intensity with Rammasun moving northward, passing east
  of Taiwan and eastern mainland China and eventually making landfall in
  South Korea as a weakening tropical storm.  Chataan, after dawdling for
  several days in the vicinity of Chuuk, where it was responsible for
  extremely heavy rainfall, began moving west-northwestward as it increased
  to typhoon intensity and moved directly across the island of Guam as a
  Category 2 typhoon (on the Saffir/Simpson scale).  Chataan later briefly
  became a super typhoon, then weakened and flirted with the Japanese
  coastline as it recurved northeastward.   Since both of these tropical
  cyclones reached maturity in July and lasted well into the month, they
  will be covered in the July summary.



                               TYPHOON NOGURI
                        (TC-07W / STS 0204 / ESPADA)
                                 6 - 11 June
              ------------------------------------------------

  Noguri: contributed by South Korea, is the raccoon dog--a small grayish-
          brown animal with black markings on its face and on its thick,
          furry tail


  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     The only Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone to form during the month
  of June had its beginnings in a monsoon trough which extended eastward
  from the coast of Vietnam across the South China Sea.  A broad LLCC had
  formed by early on 4 June--a SSM/I pass at 04/0205 UTC and animated
  satellite imagery revealed that significant development had occurred
  during the past six hours with a developing banding feature wrapping
  into the LLCC from the southwest.  Water vapor imagery revealed an upper-
  level trough extending over the coast of China while a mid-level analysis
  indicated air mass continuity over the suspect area through 500 mb.  JTWC
  assessed the potential for development to be fair.

     A TCFA was issued at 0000 UTC on 5 June.  Animated satellite imagery
  indicated a developing LLCC with associated deepening convection south-
  east of Hainan Dao.   CIMSS analysis products indicated that the LLCC was
  situated beneath an upper-level ridge with favorable outflow aloft and
  weak to moderate vertical shear.   At 0600 UTC the center was located
  roughly 150 nm south-southwest of Hong Kong and was quasi-stationary
  with most of the deep convection confined to the eastern semicircle.

     JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 07W at 0000 UTC
  on 6 June.  (HKO also classified the system as a depression at this
  time.)  The initial warning intensity was estimated at 30 kts, based
  on CI estimates of 25 and 35 kts, and the center was located roughly
  150 nm south-southeast of Hong Kong.  TD-07W was located in a region
  of weak to moderate vertical shear and consisted of a broad LLCC with
  deep convection limited primarily to the southeastern quadrant.  The
  system moved slowly eastward toward the Luzon Strait during the next
  24 hours with little change in intensity or organization.  At 07/0000
  UTC the depression's center was located approximately 185 nm west-
  southwest of southern Taiwan, moving eastward at 9 kts.  PAGASA began
  issuing warnings on the system as it entered their AOR, naming it
  Espada (a Spanish noun meaning "sword").  As the depression continued
  eastward its organization began to improve and PAGASA upgraded it to
  Tropical Storm Espada at 07/0600 UTC.   Espada's center passed about
  65 nm south of Taiwan around 1200 UTC, and at 1800 UTC JTWC also upgraded
  the system to tropical storm status, based on CI estimates and ship
  reports of 35-kt winds.  Convection was developing over the LLCC, and
  water vapor imagery revealed that a longwave trough moving over the East
  China Sea had helped in the establishment of a poleward outflow channel.


  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     JTWC increased the MSW to 45 kts at 0000 UTC on 8 June--at the same
  time HKO upgraded Espada/07W to tropical storm status.   Six hours later
  NMCC and JMA both classified the system as a tropical storm with JMA
  assigning the name Noguri.   Deep convection near the LLCC temporarily
  weakened early on 8 June but was redeveloping by 1200 UTC.  A 08/0953
  UTC TRMM 37 GHz image indicated a well-defined vortex center on the
  western edge of the new deep convection.   Noguri's earlier eastward
  and east-northeastward motion had been due to the steering influence
  of a low to mid-level ridge southeast of the cyclone.  The ridge was
  forecast to build east of the storm, inducing it to turn more toward
  the northeast.  This is exactly what happened--at 1800 UTC Noguri's
  center was located approximately 320 nm southwest of Okinawa, moving
  northeastward at 7 kts.   JTWC upped the MSW to 55 kts at 1800 UTC, even
  though convection had decreased somewhat in the western semicircle as a
  shortwave trough passed north of the system.    NMCC and PAGASA were
  reporting maximum 10-min mean winds of 50 kts while JMA and HKO were
  estimating the intensity at 40 kts.

     A surprise was in store on 9 June.  Multi-spectral satellite imagery
  indicated the development of a cloud-filled eye, and CI estimates jumped
  to 65 and even up to 90 kts.  At 09/0000 UTC JTWC upgraded Noguri to an
  85-kt typhoon, located about 260 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa.  A SSM/I
  image at 08/2205 UTC had depicted a small area of deep convection with
  a well-defined eye and a broad region of dry air west of the system.
  Even though some CI estimates remained at 90 kts through 1800 UTC, JTWC
  did not increase the MSW above 85 kts.  Noguri was a compact typhoon
  with gales extending outward around 70-75 nm from the center.  NMCC
  upgraded Noguri to a typhoon at 0600 UTC with the 10-min avg MSW esti-
  mated at 70 kts.  NMCC classified the storm as a typhoon for 18 hours
  while PAGASA upgraded it to minimal typhoon status for only one warning
  cycle.  The peak intensity estimated by JMA, Hong Kong, and Taiwan was
  60 kts (10-min avg).

     The small typhoon turned northward and by 1800 UTC was located about
  160 nm southwest of Okinawa.   TRMM and SSM/I passes during the day
  revealed a partial eyewall with most convection located in the eastern
  semicircle.  A SSM/I pass at 09/1134 UTC depicted a small eye with very
  little deep convection extending out from the eyewall.  Satellite imagery
  indicated that the system was beginning to experience shear from the
  west as a small upper-level ridge built to the west of the cyclone.
  At 0000 UTC on the 10th Noguri was approximately 90 nm southwest of Naha
  and moving north-northeastward.  The storm was still experiencing shear
  and the intensity was lowered to 75 kts.  The Okinawa radar loop indi-
  cated that the center tracked just east of the island of Miyako around
  09/1700 UTC.  A SSM/I pass at 09/2151 UTC indicated that the remaining 
  deep convection was localized in the southeastern quadrant.

     JTWC downgraded Noguri to a 55-kt tropical storm at 10/1200 UTC when
  the storm was centered about 270 nm south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan.
  The cyclone's northeastward motion had accelerated to 16 kts.    Deep
  convection was rapidly weakening and system was beginning to transition
  into an extratropical cyclone.    JTWC downgraded Noguri to a 30-kt
  tropical depression at 1800 UTC, but JMA was reporting the 10-min avg
  MSW at 45 kts.  The final JTWC warning on Noguri was issued at 11/0000
  UTC with the system located about 380 nm west-southwest of Tokyo, racing
  northeastward at 33 kts.  JMA had dropped the winds to 35 kts, and the
  final bulletin from that agency was issued at 0600 UTC, placing the
  center inland near Kyoto.  The system either dissipated over Honshu, or
  else was absorbed into an extratropical LOW moving eastward over the
  Sea of Japan.


  C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers
  ---------------------------------------------

     NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW of 70 kts compares rather well with JTWC's
  peak 1-min avg MSW of 85 kts.  As noted above, PAGASA was the only other
  warning agency to upgrade Noguri to typhoon status, and that only for
  a six-hour period.   All the other warning centers (JMA, HKO and CWBT)
  estimated the peak 10-min avg sustained wind at 60 kts.


  D. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     Just as I was about ready to send out the June summary, I received
  some rainfall totals recorded on Taiwan during several tropical cyclones.
  These were sent to me by Huang Chunliang--a special thanks to Chunliang
  for passing them along.  The data were compiled by Professor Chun-Chieh
  Wu of National Taiwan University and his student, Wei-Peng Huang.  A
  special thanks also to these gentlemen for sending the information to
  Chunliang.    The amounts are tabulated for various periods by station
  name and county.

     For Typhoon Noguri (rainfall amounts in mm):
     --------------------------------------------

  1. Storm totals, from 05/1600 UTC through 06/1900 UTC:

     LIUFENLIAO, Nantu County       134
     JEASHIAN, Kaohsiung County      90
     JIYUEHTAN, Nantu County         75
     YU CHIH, Nantu County           71
     NIU-TON, Ilan County            67
     SHANGDER, Pingtung County       66
     TSAOLING, Chiayi County         76
     O MEI, Hsinchu County           67

  2. Storm totals, from 06/1600 UTC through 07/1900 UTC:

     MU-TAN, Pingtung County        320
     MA TSUMIAO, Tainan County      107
     MA TOU SAN, Chiayi County       77


  E. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Typhoon Noguri have
  been received by the author.



                         ADDENDUM TO MAY SUMMARY
                         -----------------------

     The Taiwan rainfall tables sent by Huang Chunliang also included
  some amounts recorded during the passage of Tropical Depression Dagul
  (06W) in late May.  I have included these in the table below.

     For Tropical Depression Dagul, May, 2002 (rainfall amounts in mm):
     ------------------------------------------------------------------

  1. Storm totals, from 28/1600 UTC through 30/0700 UTC:

     MU-TAN, Pingtung County        191
     SHOU CHIA, Pingtung County     137
     SAUKUANSAN, Kaohsiung County   182


  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


               North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June
               ---------------------------------------------

     No tropical cyclones developed in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian
  Sea during June.   A tropical disturbance formed on the 1st near the
  west coast of India, south of Bombay.   The system exhibited improved
  organization on the 2nd and JTWC upgraded the development potential to
  fair, estimating the maximum winds in the 20-25 kt range.   However, by
  the next day the system had moved inland over western India and weakened.
  There were some episodes of disturbed weather in both the Arabian Sea
  and Bay of Bengal later in the month but none of these disturbances
  became very well-organized.

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for June:  1 tropical disturbance


             Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June
             -------------------------------------------------

     A tropical disturbance developed in the Southwest Indian Ocean during
  June which elicited the issuance of several bulletins from the La Reunion
  TCWC.  The system was located approximately 525 nm east-southeast of
  Diego Garcia at 11/0600 UTC and subsequently moved slowly southward over
  the next few days, accelerating on the 14th.  By the time the final
  bulletin was issued at 0600 UTC on the 15th, the system was located
  about 900 nm southeast of Diego Garcia.  JTWC did not issue any warnings
  on this system, but did assign a fair potential for development from
  the 10th through the 12th, downgrading it to poor on the 13th.   On
  13 June MFR estimated the MSW near the center at 25 kts, reaching 30 kts
  up to 250 nm from the center in the southern semicircle.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


                       Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
                        Tropical Activity for June
                       -----------------------------

     No tropical cyclones developed in waters around northeastern Australia
  during June, but I did receive a report from Jeff Callaghan concerning a
  hybrid low-pressure system which brought gales, heavy rains and heavy
  seas to portions of Australia.  I have included Jeff's write-up below
  verbatim (with some minor editing).  A special thanks to Jeff for sending
  the report to me.

     A LOW in the middle atmosphere developed overland in southeast Queens-
  land by 2 June 2002.  At the surface a large HIGH moved across southeast
  Australia while a trough  developed to the east of the upper LOW, gener- 
  ating gale-force winds along the south coast of Queensland.  The trough
  developed east of Bowen between Marion Reef and Frederick Reef, and 
  because of the large HIGH over southeast Australia, it had the same
  effect as a deep East Coast LOW.  The gales extended northwards up to
  the Capricorn Coast by 4 June 2002.  The low-level onshore flow and the
  upper LOW combined to produce areas of very heavy rain.

     On Tuesday, 4 June 2002, torrential rain and flash flooding occurred
  in the Yeppoon area with general falls between 80 mm and 100 mm in the
  24 hours to 2300 UTC, 3 June 2002.  Very heavy rain (with thunder) began
  falling at about 2230 UTC, 3 June 2002, and continued until 0030 UTC,
  4 June 2002.  Reports of amounts in that two-hour period ranged from
  120 mm to 320 mm. The heaviest rainfall areas seemed to be around Kinka
  Beach (halfway between Yeppoon and Emu Park), Emu Park itself, and at
  Zilzie just south of Emu Park.   Some of the reports received were Kinka
  Beach--359 mm in total, with 70 mm of it before 2100 UTC.  Another Kinka
  Beach resident reported a 322 mm total--102 mm before 2300 UTC and 220 mm
  after 2300 UTC--while a report from a resident 1 km inland from Kinka
  Beach indicated 305 mm for a total and 75 mm before 2300 UTC.   At
  Barlows Hill, just north of Yeppoon, 150 mm was recorded in 90 minutes,
  and at Kemp Beach 330 mm was recorded in total with 240 mm after 2300
  UTC.   Emu Park reported 290 mm in the 7 hours to 0500 UTC, 4 June 2002.
  Zilzie recorded a total of 380 mm with 320 mm after 2100 UTC.  The Keppel
  Sands Coastguard registered 245 mm up to 0200 UTC.  There was one report
  of 446 mm at Kinka Beach for the whole event.  A number of houses were
  inundated by stormwater at Emu Park and motor vehicles were abandoned.

     Gales generated large seas, and near Lady Musgrave Island, five
  yachtsmen were rescued off two yachts:  Banshee and Moonfleet.   Both
  yachts were destroyed by the seas.   Rundle Island automatic weather
  station (AWS) reported gales from 1700 UTC, 3 June 2002, until 0900 UTC,
  4 June 2002.  The strongest 10-minute average wind recorded at the AWS
  was 45 knots.  The strongest 10-minute average wind recorded at Double
  Island Point AWS was 39 knots, at Lady Elliot Island AWS 35 knots, at
  Frederick Reef 38 knots, at Gannet Cay AWS 41 knots, and at Cape Moreton
  AWS 45 knots.

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones
 
  *************************************************************************

                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to:  hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           June as an example:   jun02.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  jun02.sum, for
  example.

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua and Michael Pitt):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph> OR http://66.40.4.61>
    http://mpitthurricane.com>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                   TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
  well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of Wollongbar, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  garyp@alaweb.com
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  AND

  John Wallace
  E-mail:  dosidicus@aol.com

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0206.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006

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