Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200301 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTXS31 PGTW 20020906 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 4.0S4 57.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.0S4 57.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 4.4S8 55.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 4.5S9 53.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 4.3S7 51.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 4.1S5 49.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 4.1S5 57.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 835 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF
SOMALIA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATION AND SSM/I IMAGERY DEPICT
A SMALL (APPROX. 100 NM) SYSTEM WITH A BANDING FEATURE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF AFRICA
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVAILABLE NWP (UKMET GRID AND NOGAPS) AGREES WITH A
GENERALLY, WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AFRICAN COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6
AND 072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020907 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPI CAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 4.2S6 56.5E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.2S6 56.5E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 4.2S6 54.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 3.9S2 52.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 3.7S0 50.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 3.2S5 48.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.2S6 56.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF SOMALIA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070529Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGERY (SSM/I) PASS DEPICT THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND AN OVERALL SMALL SYSTEM. A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF AFRICA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE
NWP (UKMET GRID AND NOGAPS) AGREES WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AFRICAN COAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020907 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 4.2S6 54.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.2S6 54.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 4.2S6 53.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 4.1S5 51.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 4.0S4 49.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 4.2S6 54.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE UPPER EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT. A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OFF OF THE EAST
COAST OF AFRICA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP (UKMET GRID, GFDN, AVN, AND NOGAPS) WERE USED
AS A BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IS TRACKS BENEATH THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020908 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 4.1S5 54.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.1S5 54.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 3.9S2 52.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR  4.1S5 53.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S HAS DRIFTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6
VISIBLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS DISSIPATED ALMOST ENTIRELY AND WHAT REMAINS IS
SCATTERED AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA. OUR FORECAST IS
FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD DRIFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP (UKMET GRID, AVN, AND NOGAPS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH DISSIPATION, THOUGH AVN CARRIES A VERY WEAK CIRCULATION OUT FOR
A LONGER PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 12
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//