Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200307 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTXS22 PGTW 20021226 18:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1S9 89.1E8 TO 11.6S8 87.9E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261700Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7 88.9E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7S2 88.2E8, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7 88.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION DECOUPLED WEST OF AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS THAT THE AREA HAS NOT DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT
STILL SHOWS A WEAK FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271800Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20021226 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z7 --- NEAR 8.9S7 89.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 89.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 9.6S5 89.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 10.1S2 89.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 10.5S6 89.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 10.9S0 88.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 9.1S0 89.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE LOW LEVELS HAVE SHOWN INCREASED ORGANIZATION.
EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS
DECOUPLED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH
MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD. NGPS IS AN OUTLIER TRACKING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. JTWC EXPECTS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN THE
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON STEERING. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, AVN, EGRR, AND THE SHALLOW
BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS
18 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
261751Z DEC 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
261800). NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  05S (CRYSTAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 002 MOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20021227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 9.1S0 90.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S0 90.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 9.1S0 91.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 9.2S1 91.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 9.4S3 91.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 9.7S6 91.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.1S0 90.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271730Z0
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. OLDER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN CYCLING OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED 35 KNOT WINDS SOUTH
OF THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS POLEWARD
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS FAVORABLE, THEREFORE TC 07S SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS RESULTING IN AN END TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF EGRR, GFDN, NGPS, AND NCEP AVN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO OUT TO 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND
282100Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  05S (CRYSTAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20021228 09:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 9.4S3 93.1E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 93.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 9.6S5 93.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 9.9S8 93.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 9.8S7 92.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 9.5S4 93.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN
TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF EGRR, NGPS,
AND NCEP AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO OUT TO 48
HOURS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z3 AND 290900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20021228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z9 --- NEAR 10.1S2 93.7E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 93.7E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 10.5S6 93.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.2S3 93.7E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S,
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. A
281519Z6 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH AN ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE DECOUPLED
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX 281200Z FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  05S (CRYSTAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//