Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200327 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTPS21 PGTW 20030413 23:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 132321ZAPR2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S3 179.4W1 TO 18.4S3
174.5W7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 132030Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 178.4W0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8
178.5W1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 178.4W0, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE, WHILE CONTINUING TO TURN CYCLONICALLY INWARD TOWARD THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL
OVER THE AREA. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS
APPARENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, HELPING TO ACCENTUATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. BASED ON CONTINUED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142330Z3.
4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030414 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132321ZAPR2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 16.1S8 175.4W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 175.4W7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 20.4S6 173.6W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 26.6S4 173.2W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 175.0W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 27P
INTENSIFIED IN A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH A GOOD POINT
SOURCE ALOFT. TC 27P IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND MOVE MORE RAPIDLY POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 132321ZAPR2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 132330). THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//