Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone AMI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20030111 09:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110921ZJAN2003// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3S2 178.3W9 TO 14.9S4 179.9W6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110530Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.3S4 178.8W4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 4. REMARKS: ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE CONVECTION IN A BAND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120921Z5.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030111 21:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110921ZJAN2003// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- NEAR 11.2S4 179.2W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 179.2W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 12.4S7 179.4W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 13.7S1 179.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 15.4S0 178.7W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 17.4S2 177.2W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 179.2W9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC, HOWEVER, CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), NOGAPS AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110921Z JAN 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110930). NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030112 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- NEAR 11.4S6 179.9W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 179.9W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 12.4S7 179.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 13.9S3 180.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 15.6S2 179.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 17.9S7 177.8W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 180.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, BEFORE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP, UK MET OFFICE, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030112 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z2 --- NEAR 12.6S9 179.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 179.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 14.2S7 179.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 16.5S2 179.9W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 178.7W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 22.6S0 176.1W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 179.8E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 10P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS, AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND THEN, MOVE INTO, THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030113 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z0 --- NEAR 14.4S9 179.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 179.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 16.7S4 179.6W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 20.1S3 178.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 23.8S3 175.3W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 33 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 26.7S5 168.7W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 179.9E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE, WITH STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING INCREASED OUTFLOW ABOVE THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL, BUT INCREASES TO THE SOUTH. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 10P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 TO 36 HOURS, AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND THEN, MOVE INTO, THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030113 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 179.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 179.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 178.6W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 22.9S3 175.3W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 26.7S5 169.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 39 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 30.8S1 161.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 179.7W4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BEING ENHANCED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID- LATITUDE LOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030114 03:00z AMD IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 005A AMENDED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z5 --- NEAR 19.2S2 178.9W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 178.9W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 22.9S3 176.4W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 26.7S5 171.6W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 36 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 30.7S0 164.7W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 40 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 35.1S9 156.8W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 178.3W9. THE 131800Z3 WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS VENTILATED THE SYSTEM MORE THAN EXPECTED, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 29 NM IRREGULAR EYE HAS FORMED. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030114 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z1 --- NEAR 21.0S3 177.9W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 177.9W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 25.0S7 173.9W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 28.9S9 167.4W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 39 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 32.9S4 159.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 176.9W3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 22 NM IRREGULAR EYE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), TCLAPS, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030114 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z4 --- NEAR 25.1S8 173.4W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 31 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 173.4W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 29.2S3 167.4W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 38 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 32.5S0 159.4W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.1S9 171.9W8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030115 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z2 --- NEAR 28.8S8 165.7W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 42 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S8 165.7W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 32.6S1 156.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 163.3W3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1085 NM SOUTHEAST SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 42 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. TC 10P IS NEARING THE FINAL STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO FINISH TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: ami.html
Updated: 16th January, 2003 |
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