[Index]
Tropical Cyclone BENI
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone BENI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS21 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 242051ZJAN03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S9 162.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241730Z7 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 162.0E9. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM)
AND QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS
CONSOLIDATING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030125 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242051ZJAN2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 13.0S4 161.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 161.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 13.1S5 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 13.3S7 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 13.5S9 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 14.0S5 160.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 161.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS BOTH
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN SOUTH AFTERWARDS, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7
IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 242051ZJAN2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 242100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 AND 260300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030125 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 13.3S7 160.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 160.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 13.4S8 159.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 13.4S8 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.8S2 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.6S1 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 160.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES IN DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL,
NEAR EQUATORIAL, STEERING RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 AND 261500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030126 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 12.2S5 161.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 161.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 12.4S7 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 12.5S8 160.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.3S7 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.9S4 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 161.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY
NORTH DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
252330Z5 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS AND TURN POLEWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND
270300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030126 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 161.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 161.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.0S4 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.5S9 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.3S8 160.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.4S0 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 161.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS AND TURN POLEWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 12P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NOGAPS,
GFDN, JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030127 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 13.1S5 160.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 160.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.5S9 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.2S7 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.3S9 159.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.5S2 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 160.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 04 KTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD AS IT
TURNS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), BOM TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271500Z5 AND 280300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030127 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 13.9S3 161.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 161.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.6S1 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.5S1 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.0S7 162.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 16.4S1 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 161.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST
AT 05 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDS
TOWARDS THE EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA
DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, FOLLOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, PEAKING AFTER
THE EARLY PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13P (CILLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030128 03:00z
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 14.7S2 160.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 160.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.6S2 160.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.6S3 161.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.4S2 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.1S0 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 160.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 05
KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
272330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING
FEATURE ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POSSIBLE CLOUD FILLED EYE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
AUSTRALIA BUILDS TOWARDS THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 290300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030128 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 161.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 161.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 161.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 162.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.0S9 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.9S8 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 161.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
04 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS.
A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR TASMANIA IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
BY 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN BY MID PERIOD AND TRACK
POLEWARD BY 48 HOURS. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030129 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 16.4S1 162.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 162.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.1S0 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 19.2S2 166.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 20.7S9 166.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 162.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 282330Z8 MULTISPECTAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 21 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY
SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OF THE SYSTEM
STARTING IN 24 HOURS AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND SHIFT ITS
TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND THIS RIDGE. TC 12P IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE MID-PERIOD WITH A DECLINE IN INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS POLEWARD
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030129 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 165.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 165.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 19.2S2 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 20.3S5 167.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 21.8S1 166.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 23.4S9 164.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 165.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EASTWARD BY 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD FROM TASMANIA AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY 24 HOURS. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS BY MID PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND 301500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 19.0S0 167.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 167.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 20.5S7 168.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 22.1S5 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 23.6S1 167.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.9S5 166.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 168.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 115 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD IN 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM TASMANIA AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
24 HOURS. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS
BY MID PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300000Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 21.0S3 169.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 169.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 22.5S9 169.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 23.6S1 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.7S3 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 26.7S5 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 169.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 90 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
BUILDS. AFTERWARDS, A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS FORECAST AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH IS PROPAGATES EASTWARD, FROM TASMANIA, TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM INFLUENCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 AND 311500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 168.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 168.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 23.2S7 166.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.0S6 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 24.3S9 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 24.0S6 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 167.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO
55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND
010300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030131 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 23.8S3 165.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 165.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.1S7 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.9S4 165.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 311130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE REMAINING ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 20
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Document: beni.html
Updated: 1st February, 2003 |
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