Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone CILLA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTPS22 PGTW 20030126 13:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261251Z JAN 03//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S1 177.6E1 TO 17.5S3
178.9W5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 261130Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5 178.2E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S3 177.5E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5 178.2E8, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271300Z3.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED LOCATION IN PARA.2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030127 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/270051Z JAN 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 19.0S0 176.6W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 176.6W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 20.5S7 174.6W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 20.8S0 172.7W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 20.9S1 171.1W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 176.1W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (CILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR, ENHANCED INFRARED, VISIBLE AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH, INDICATING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER, THESE INDICATIONS HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INDICATING A SLOWER TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN A MORE EASTWARD TRACK
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SLOWLY CONTINUES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270051Z JAN 03 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 270100). NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z2 AND 280900Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030127 21:00z AMD
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 20.0S2 173.1W2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 173.1W2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 20.4S6 168.7W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 172.0W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (CILLA), IS NOW RELOCATED TO 20.0S2 
174.6E8 BASED ON 272030Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 13P  
IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, 
WESTERN SAMOA, TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271727Z6 SSM/I PASS. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE SSM/I PASS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 
BEGUN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE 
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 13P 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AS IT GOES 
EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 11 
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON 
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P 
(BENI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//