Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone CRAIG [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS23 PGTW 20030308 10:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080951ZMAR03// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S6 128.7E8 TO 10.9S0 133.6E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 080830Z9 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 129.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 129.4E6 IN THE TIMOR SEA IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 129.4E6, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091000Z0. 4. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030308 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080951ZMAR03// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951Z MAR 03// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z7 --- NEAR 11.2S4 128.7E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 128.7E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 10.9S0 128.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 10.6S7 129.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 10.4S5 129.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 10.5S6 130.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 128.7E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EQUATORWARD FOR THE SHORT TERM, UNDER A MID- LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW, BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD OVER THE TOP END OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENT, SOUTH OF TC 24S. CURRENT FORECAST REASONING CALLS FOR TC 24S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT, THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND THE AUSTRALIA BOM MODELS (TLAPS AND TCLAPS) ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080951Z MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS23 PGTW 081000). NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030309 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z5 --- NEAR 10.7S8 129.8E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 129.8E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 10.7S8 131.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 10.9S0 132.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 11.4S6 133.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 11.8S0 135.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.7S8 130.1E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030309 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z8 --- NEAR 10.5S6 130.8E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 130.8E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 10.7S8 132.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 11.1S3 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 11.7S9 134.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 12.6S9 136.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 131.1E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, ACROSS THE TOP END OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, IN NEAR EQUATORIAL WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION SLOWLY, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, IN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) CONTINUE TO AGREE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030310 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z7 --- NEAR 11.0S2 131.2E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 131.2E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 11.3S5 132.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 11.6S8 132.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 11.9S1 134.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 12.3S6 135.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 131.4E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, BEFORE INTENSIFYING AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030310 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.5S7 131.2E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 131.2E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 11.9S1 132.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 12.1S4 133.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 12.4S7 134.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 12.7S0 135.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 131.5E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER THAN UKMET, BASED ON A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030311 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- NEAR 11.9S1 132.7E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 132.7E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 12.3S6 134.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 12.5S8 135.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 13.0S4 138.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 13.7S1 140.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 133.1E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 0500Z5 WITH MAXIMUM REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. TC 24S IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER THAN UKMET, BASED ON A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20030311 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- NEAR 12.5S8 134.8E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 134.8E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 12.8S1 136.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 13.2S6 138.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 13.8S2 140.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 14.5S0 142.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 135.3E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANTS DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND NEAR CAPE YORK. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER MID-PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS33 PGTW 20030312 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- NEAR 13.9S3 139.5E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 139.5E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 14.9S4 142.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 15.6S2 144.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 16.3S0 146.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 16.8S5 148.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 140.2E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WAS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE YORK AND THEN INTO THE CORAL SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER CAPE YORK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO POOR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ABOVE LISTED AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TC 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) AND TC 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS33 PGTW 20030312 21:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 009B CORRECTED 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z2 --- NEAR 16.3S0 142.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 142.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 17.0S8 143.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 17.0S8 144.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 142.3E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED OVER LAND 220 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 24S HAS DE-COUPLED IN LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER CAPE YORK, AND THE UPPER-LEVELS STREAMING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A TUTT CELL OVER SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS DISSIPATION SCENARIO, KEEPING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO THE CORAL SEA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE LISTED AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: THIS MESSAGE CORRECTS MISSING FINAL WARNING STATEMENTS IN REMARKS. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
Document: craig.html
Updated: 13th March, 2003 |
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