[Index]
Tropical Cyclone CRYSTAL
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone CRYSTAL [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20021223 02:00z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5S9 64.3E3 TO 9.3S2 68.4E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
230000Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6
68.3E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9 70.2E9 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6 68.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
11.0S2. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240200Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021223 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- NEAR 11.0S2 66.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 66.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 12.0S3 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 13.0S4 63.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.1S6 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.4S0 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 66.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL) HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 420
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. TC 05S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 231130Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OR ABOVE AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z8 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 230151ZDEC2002 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230200). NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 AND
241500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- NEAR 12.3S6 64.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 64.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 13.6S0 63.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.9S4 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.1S8 61.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 17.2S0 61.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 64.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
232330Z3 INFRARED AND AMSU IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPMENT. TC 05S
CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE MID LEVEL,
POLEWARD ORIENTED, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL
INDIAN OCEAN. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, UKMET
GLOBAL, GFDN, AND GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 AND 250300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021224 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 13.5S9 63.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 63.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.6S1 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.5S1 61.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.4S1 60.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.2S0 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 62.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
REVEALS SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S
CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
GFDN, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z0 AND 251500Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 14.5S0 61.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 61.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.3S9 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.2S9 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.4S2 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 19.3S3 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 61.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. A 242203Z3 AMSU PASS DEPICTS A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD BY
48 HOURS, WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF TC 05S. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN
SOUTHWARD BY 48 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z3 AND 260300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021225 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 15.5S1 61.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 61.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.4S1 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.5S3 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.7S6 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 20.1S3 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 61.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BANDING EYE FEATURE,
HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
HAS ERODED THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD, WEAKENING THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 AND 261500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021226 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 17.1S9 60.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 60.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 18.4S3 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 19.5S5 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 20.8S0 59.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 22.2S6 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 60.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST HAS ERODED THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND 270300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021226 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 18.5S4 59.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 59.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 19.8S8 59.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 21.4S7 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 23.0S5 60.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 24.4S0 61.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 59.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 MULISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
HAS WEAKENED AND THE BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE AFWA MM5 SEEMS TO HAVE A MODEL BOUNDARY ERROR IN
ITS SOLUTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE AFWA MM5. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021227 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 19.9S9 59.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 59.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 21.4S7 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 23.0S5 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 24.4S0 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 26.2S0 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 59.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
EAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021227 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 21.6S9 59.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 59.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 23.2S7 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 24.6S2 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 26.6S4 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 28.4S4 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 59.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. THE EYEWALL HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AND
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021228 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 23.3S8 61.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 61.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 25.4S1 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 27.3S2 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 29.3S4 66.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 31.5S9 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 61.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THERE IS NO LONGER AN EYE FEATURE AND THE SYSTEM IS IN
THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 05S SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS
AS IT MERGES WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 290300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021228 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 25.1S8 61.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 61.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 26.8S6 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 28.8S8 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 30.9S2 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 32.6S1 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 61.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS, A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 05S
CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LLCC. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS ALSO EVIDENT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. TC 05S SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS AS IT MERGES
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20021229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 26.4S2 62.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 62.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 27.8S7 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 30.3S6 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 31.7S1 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 26.7S5 63.1E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL), OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 TO 3.0 (35 TO 45 KTS). SATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FINAL STAGE. STRONG UPPER NORTHWESTERLIES ARE NOW SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION IS DECOUPLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE VORTEX. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX 290000Z FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (NONAME) WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW 282100) FOR FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
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Document: crystal.html
Updated: 29th December, 2002 |
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