Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ERICA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20030304 06:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040621ZMAR2003// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 19.5S5 152.0E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 040530Z2 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.1S3 152.1E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3S5 152.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S3 152.1E9, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH, QUIKSCAT REVEALS ELONGATED TROUGHING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL AWAY FROM THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050630Z4. 5. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030304 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040621ZMAR2003// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z7 --- NEAR 21.6S9 154.1E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 154.1E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 22.0S4 154.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 20.9S1 154.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 19.7S7 152.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 18.3S2 151.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 154.2E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM, EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE BEFORE TURNING EQUATORWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF TC 22S BUILDS EQUATORWARD. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 15 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040621ZMAR2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030305 03:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 20.2S4 154.1E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 154.1E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 19.2S2 153.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.1S0 152.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 150.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 16.6S3 149.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 153.9E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM, EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9. JUSTICATION FOR CORRECTION: GRAMMATICAL ERROR IN REMARKS. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030305 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 18.8S7 155.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 155.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 17.4S2 154.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 16.3S0 153.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 15.2S8 152.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 13.9S3 151.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 155.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM, EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 AND 061500Z2. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030306 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z6 --- NEAR 17.6S4 154.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 154.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 16.9S6 153.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 154.1E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM, EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMI PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER EQUATORWARD AND DISSIPATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, EGRR, AND AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030310 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 157.8E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 157.8E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 12.6S9 158.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 13.3S7 159.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 13.9S3 160.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 14.8S3 161.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM --- REMARKS: 100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 158.0E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), HAS REGENERATED AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030310 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- NEAR 12.5S8 158.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 158.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 13.1S5 159.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 13.8S2 160.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 14.7S2 160.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 16.0S7 161.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 158.3E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030311 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 158.8E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 158.8E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 14.3S8 159.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 15.5S1 160.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 16.5S2 160.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 17.5S3 161.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 158.9E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR, BUT WEAK OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030311 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.2S8 159.6E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 159.6E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 16.7S4 160.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 17.8S6 161.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 18.5S4 162.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 19.0S0 163.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 159.8E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST OF VANUATU, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THEN WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030312 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- NEAR 16.9S6 159.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 159.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 17.9S7 160.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 18.7S6 160.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 19.4S4 162.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 20.0S2 164.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 159.8E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG 17.0S8. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AUSTRALIA TLAPS AND TCLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TC 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) AND TC 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030312 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.9S8 161.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 161.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 19.7S7 161.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 20.3S5 162.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 21.3S6 165.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 22.5S9 167.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 161.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL TRACK SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030313 03:00z AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 011A AMENDED 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- NEAR 19.6S6 161.7E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 161.7E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 20.2S4 162.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 21.0S3 164.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 22.1S5 166.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 23.5S0 169.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 162.0E9. THE WARNING IS AMENDED BASED ON AN INTENSIFICATION TREND HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS, AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL TRACK SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030313 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z0 --- NEAR 20.2S4 162.0E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 162.0E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 21.3S6 163.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 22.3S7 165.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 23.9S4 169.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 26.2S0 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 162.4E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER, TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030313 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z3 --- NEAR 21.2S5 164.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 164.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 22.4S8 166.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 24.7S3 170.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 27.4S3 174.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 29.7S8 177.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 165.0E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. TC 22P IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE INTERACTING WITH LAND OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MID-PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030314 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z1 --- NEAR 23.0S5 168.8E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 30 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 168.8E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 25.3S0 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 27.8S7 176.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 30.5S8 179.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 32.5S0 177.8W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 169.8E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. TC 22P HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE INTERACTING WITH NEW CALEDONIA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH UKMET (EGRR) AS THE OUTLIER AT TAU 36 AND 48 WITH A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS EXCEPT EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030314 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z4 --- NEAR 26.0S8 173.2E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 173.2E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 28.4S4 177.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 30.8S1 179.1W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 33.0S6 175.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 174.2E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ABOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 AND 152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030315 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z2 --- NEAR 29.0S1 178.7E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S1 178.7E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 31.6S0 176.8W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 33.9S5 172.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 179.8E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
Document: erica.html
Updated: 17th March, 2003 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |