Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ESETA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20030310 00:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100021Z MAR 03// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S0 170.2E0 TO 17.8S6 174.4E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 172.4E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE, MULTISPECTRAL, ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, AND A 091848Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110030Z5. 4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20030310 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100021Z MAR 03// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.0S7 172.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 172.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.7S4 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.4S2 172.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 18.0S9 173.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 18.4S3 174.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 172.5E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 30 KNOTS. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 100021Z MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20030311 03:00z RTD MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 172.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 172.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 19.2S2 172.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.1S3 173.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 20.8S0 174.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.2S5 176.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 172.3E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 102146Z4 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20030311 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- NEAR 19.4S4 173.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 173.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.7S9 174.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 21.3S6 176.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.8S1 179.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.1S5 177.2W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 173.3E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 55 KNOTS. A 111019Z3 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE THE 48 HOUR POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20030312 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- NEAR 21.3S6 174.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 174.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 177.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 22.4S8 179.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.7S1 175.1W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 23.8S3 170.9W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 175.6E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF AN IRREGULAR EYE WITHIN THE LAST 3 HOURS. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20030313 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.9S2 177.8W3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 177.8W3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.4S8 173.4W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 23.8S3 168.5W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 27.1S0 162.8W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 39 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 33.0S6 156.8W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 176.7W1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKU ALOFA, TONGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED, VISIBLE, AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. TC 25P HAS ENTERED AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION, AND ALLOWING FOR THE RELATIVELY BRIEF RESURGENCE SEEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHEREBY TC 25P HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 25P IS NOW FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20030313 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z7 --- NEAR 22.9S3 172.5W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 172.5W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 25.1S8 166.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 41 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 30.3S6 159.2W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 43 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 37.6S6 153.7W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.5S0 171.0W9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKU ALOFA, TONGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 110 AND 125 KNOTS. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND 141500Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20030314 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z5 --- NEAR 24.1S7 166.8W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 26 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 166.8W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 28.1S1 160.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 33 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 33.3S9 155.4W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 25.1S8 165.1W3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A RAPID EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED A RAPID WEAKENING TREND, INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND, TRAVELING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT POLEWARD. TC 25P IS ALMOST EXTRATROPICAL, AND WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 21 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
Document: eseta.html
Updated: 14th March, 2003 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |