Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone FARI [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20030123 12:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231221ZJAN2003// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S6 75.9E1 TO 15.9S5 68.7E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231200Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 75.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING AND THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241230Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030123 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231221Z JAN 02// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z4 --- NEAR 14.8S3 74.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 74.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 15.6S2 72.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 16.6S3 69.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 17.9S7 67.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 19.7S7 65.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 73.7E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND A SHIP REPORT OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ENHANCE OUTFLOW FURTHER, INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD CREATE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 06 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 231221Z JAN 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231230) NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030124 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- NEAR 15.7S3 72.3E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 72.3E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 16.4S1 70.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 71.7E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMI PASS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MOVED APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES WEST. BASED ON THE DISSIPATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC, CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 11 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20030127 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 272051ZJAN2003// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3S2 53.5E3 TO 20.2S4 50.4E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271800Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 53.1E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 58.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 53.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE IN INTENSITY, AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLING CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS, AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA IS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF 11S WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281751Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030128 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z0 --- NEAR 18.8S7 51.8E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 51.8E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 19.4S4 50.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 19.8S8 48.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 20.0S2 47.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 20.2S4 45.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 51.4E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S HAS REGENERATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. TC 11S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 12 HOURS, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING TC 11S TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 290300Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030128 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- NEAR 19.6S6 50.2E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 50.2E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 20.5S7 48.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 21.2S5 47.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 22.0S4 45.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 22.5S9 43.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 49.8E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030129 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- NEAR 20.3S5 48.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 48.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 20.6S8 46.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 21.8S1 44.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 23.5S0 43.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 25.2S9 43.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 48.0E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 290000Z1, 30 NM SOUTH OF MAHANORO, MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. TC 11S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AFTER 12 HOURS, TC 11S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND GFDN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030129 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z4 --- NEAR 21.6S9 45.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 45.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 23.2S7 43.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 24.9S5 42.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 26.8S6 42.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 29.2S3 43.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 45.2E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE OVER LAND AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND 301500Z9.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030130 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z3 --- NEAR 22.2S6 42.8E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 42.8E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 23.3S8 41.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 25.3S0 41.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 27.3S2 43.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 42.5E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW OVER WATER. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR POINT, AS IT TRACKS IN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030130 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z6 --- NEAR 24.0S6 42.2E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 42.2E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 25.5S2 42.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 26.4S2 43.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.4S0 42.3E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARDS AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND PROPAGATES EASTWARDS FROM THE SOUTH OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS IN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 310300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030131 03:00z UNCLAS //N03145// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) FINAL WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z4 --- NEAR 25.8S5 42.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 42.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 27.6S5 43.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 28.8S8 44.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 26.3S1 42.7E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS A LOW TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS IN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 09 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: fari.html
Updated: 1st February, 2003 |
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