Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone FIONA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS22 PGTW 20030205 05:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050451Z FEB 03// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S9 113.3E8 TO 12.2S5 107.6E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050430Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 112.6E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 113.6E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 112.6E0 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060500Z1.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030205 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050451ZFEB2003// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 11.8S0 110.8E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 110.8E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 12.0S3 109.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 107.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 12.3S6 105.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 12.5S8 104.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 14.0S5 101.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 110.4E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050451Z FEB 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 050500) NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030205 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z4 --- NEAR 12.0S3 110.8E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 110.8E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 12.1S4 109.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 12.2S5 107.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 12.4S7 106.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 12.9S2 104.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 14.7S2 101.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 110.4E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PRODUCTS DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER, INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z6 --- NEAR 12.1S4 109.9E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 109.9E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 108.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 12.3S6 106.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 12.6S9 105.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 13.3S7 103.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 15.3S9 100.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 109.5E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) AND QUIKSCAT PASSES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PRODUCTS REVEAL OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER, WHILE INTENSIFYING CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGH THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 12.0S3 109.4E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 109.4E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 12.1S4 108.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 12.5S8 106.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 13.0S4 104.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 13.7S1 103.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 15.3S9 100.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 109.0E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z9 --- NEAR 12.0S3 108.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 108.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 12.2S5 107.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 12.6S9 105.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 13.3S7 104.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 14.3S8 102.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 16.1S8 99.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 108.5E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 55, AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0, 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z5 --- NEAR 12.0S3 108.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 108.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 12.2S5 106.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 12.8S1 105.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 13.4S8 103.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 14.1S6 101.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 16.3S0 98.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 107.8E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 70 KNOTS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD SHORT TERM, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0, 070900Z6, 071500Z3 AND 072100Z0.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030207 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCL ONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- NEAR 12.1S4 107.5E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 107.5E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 12.4S7 105.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 12.9S2 104.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 13.8S2 102.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 14.9S4 101.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 107.1E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 60 AND 70 KNOTS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030207 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z0 --- NEAR 12.6S9 105.4E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 105.4E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 13.2S6 103.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 14.2S7 101.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 99.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 16.5S2 97.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 105.0E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030208 03:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z8 --- NEAR 13.4S8 103.6E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 103.6E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 14.3S8 101.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 15.3S9 100.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 16.3S0 98.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 17.1S9 95.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 103.2E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. A 072320Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN PARTIAL CONCENTRIC BANDS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030208 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 101.7E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 101.7E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 100.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 16.5S2 98.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 17.5S3 95.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 18.4S3 93.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 101.3E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 14S HAS A 16 NM EYE. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030209 03:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.3S9 99.9E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 99.9E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 16.2S9 98.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 16.9S6 96.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 17.8S6 94.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 18.7S6 92.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 99.4E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 14S HAS A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030209 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z2 --- NEAR 16.4S1 97.9E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 97.9E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 17.2S0 95.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 18.0S9 92.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 19.1S1 90.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 20.3S5 89.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 97.2E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EYE HAS FILLED. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030210 03:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z1 --- NEAR 16.7S4 95.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 95.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 17.3S1 92.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 18.3S2 89.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 19.2S2 88.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 86.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 94.7E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 25 NM IRREGULAR EYE HAS REFORMED. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO UNTIL 42 HOURS. AFTER THAT, SOME MODELS MAINTAIN THE TRACKING OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE RIDGE, IN A GENERALLY POLEWARD DIRECTION, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING NOGAPS AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, GFDN, TRACK THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS, DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030210 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.7S4 93.4E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 93.4E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.9S6 92.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.5S3 90.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 18.9S8 89.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 20.9S1 88.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 93.0E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS TRACK TC 14S INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. NOGAPS AND AFWA MM5 TRACK THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE FIRST GROUP OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030211 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 015 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.8S6 92.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 92.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 18.9S8 90.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.6S8 90.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 90.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 23.7S2 92.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 91.8E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-PERIOD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS TRACK TC 14S INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OTHER AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE FIRST GROUP OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030211 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 016 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.5S4 91.1E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 91.1E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 19.8S8 90.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 21.7S0 90.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 23.8S3 92.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 25.5S2 94.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 91.0E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MOVES EASTWARD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE AFWA MM5 TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 16S (GERRY) (WTXS33 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS32), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030212 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 017 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- NEAR 20.0S2 91.0E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 91.0E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 21.7S0 91.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 22.9S3 92.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 24.0S6 93.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 25.0S7 95.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 91.1E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CYCLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MOVES EASTWARD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE AFWA MM5 TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030212 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 018 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- NEAR 21.4S7 91.8E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 91.8E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 22.5S9 92.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 23.6S1 93.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 24.9S5 94.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 26.0S8 95.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 92.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MOVES EASTWARD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 16S (GERRY)(WTXS33 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE) (WTXS32), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20030213 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 019 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- NEAR 22.0S4 92.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 92.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.6S0 92.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 92.3E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S HAS LOST ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE SYSTEM HAS DE-COUPLED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Document: fiona.html
Updated: 13th February, 2003 |
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