[Index]
Tropical Cyclone GINA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone GINA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20030604 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040200ZJUN2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S7 173.6E7 TO 11.0S2 167.2E6 WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 062330Z4
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S8 172.0E0.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: LATEST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050200Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030604 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZJUN2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 10.4S5 170.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 170.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 11.2S4 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 11.8S0 167.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 12.4S7 165.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 12.8S1 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 169.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED 610 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I)
PASSES REVEAL THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. TC 29P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. INTERACTION BETWEEN 29P AND ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY, GIVING A SLIGHT
EQUATORWARD BIAS TO THE TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. TC 29P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041951ZJUN2003 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040200) NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4 AND 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030605 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 11.7S9 169.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 169.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 12.6S9 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 13.6S0 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.6S1 166.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.6S2 166.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 168.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED 235 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
ESPIRITU SANTO, VANUATU ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
050530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 29P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 29P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP GFS AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) ARE HAVING TROUBLE SEPARATING THIS SYSTEM FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE, AN ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030605 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 13.0S4 167.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 167.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.0S5 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.8S3 164.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.3S9 163.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 15.7S3 162.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 167.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED 140 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
ESPIRITU SANTO, VANUATU ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS 29P HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 29P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 29P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW
TO THE EAST AND EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE
NOW IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER, EACH MODEL
INITIALIZES AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM WEAKER THAN CURRENT INTENSITIES
SUGGEST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z4 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030606 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 14.2S7 166.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 166.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.1S7 164.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.0S7 163.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.6S3 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.1S9 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 165.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED 40 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
ESPIRITU SANTO, VANUATU ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 29P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 24 HOURS. AN
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING TC 29P TO TURN
POLEWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. TC 29P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. TC 29P MAY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE STILL UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT COMES
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FROM MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5,
AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE NOW IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. THE MM5 AND GFS HAVE ERRONEOUS INTERACTION WITH A
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR, THE SOLOMAN ISLANDS. THE
REMAINING AIDS FORECAST RECURVATURE POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS AFWA AND GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND
070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030606 21:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 005A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 15.7S3 163.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 163.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.4S1 161.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.4S3 161.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.7S6 162.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 162.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 29P HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE OVER
THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTIUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, ALLOWING FOR MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING TC 29P TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD AFTER 12 HOURS. AT THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME, THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE PROPAGATED EASTWARD, IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE NOW OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. INTERACTION BETWEEN TC
29P AND THIS RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY GRADIENT,
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) REMAIN WIDELY
DISPARATE, WITH NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND AFWA MM5 INTERACTING TC 29P
SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVELY WITH A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR BOUGAINVILLE
IN THE NORTHERN SOLOMON ISLANDS. EGRR AND GFDN FORECAST RECURVATURE
POLEWARD AND WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EGRR AND GFDN SOLUTION.
JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED FORECAST INTENSITIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030607 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 16.8S5 162.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 162.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.5S3 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.6S5 161.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.3S3 162.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 19.9S9 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 161.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. TC
29P CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 29P WILL LINK UP WITH A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXITING SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA AND RECURVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MID-WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 29P'S EYE HAS BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND LESS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LAST 06 HOURS. ANALYSIS OF
UW-CIMMS DATA SHOWS THAT TC 29P HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF INCREASING SHEAR AND WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, AUSTRALIAN TLAPS,
AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. NOGAPS
CONTINUES TO INTERACT TC 29P EXCESSIVELY WITH A CIRCULATION NEAR THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANALYSIS OF THE NCEP GFS INDICATES POSSIBLE TRACKER
ALGORITHM PROBLEMS. EGGR IS THE MOST REASONABLE OF THE DYNAMIC
MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. EGGR'S SOLUTION BEST MATCHES
PERSISTENCE AND THE EXPECTED EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EGGR'S RECURVATURE SOLUTION IS ALSO MATCHED AND
SUPPORTED TO SOME DEGREE BY SBAM, MBAM, AND THE STATISTICAL AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AIDS OF CLIM AND CLIP. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND HEAVY EMPHASIS ON EGRR'S SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030608 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 17.4S2 161.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 161.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.0S9 162.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.6S5 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 19.5S5 164.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 20.7S9 167.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 161.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTHWEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. TC 29P
HAS MADE THE TURN POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 29P IS EXPERIENCING SHEAR IN THE
SOUTHWEST SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 29P WILL ULTIMATELY LINK WITH THIS
TROUGH AND BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, AND
UKMET (EGRR) ARE NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFWA MM5 WHICH PROGS THE SYSTEM IN A LESS THAN
LIKELY TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS, LESS AFWA MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030608 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 18.3S2 163.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 163.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.8S8 166.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 21.2S5 169.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 164.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 29P HAS
LINKED UP WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOW
RECURVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHEARED FROM SYSTEM LEAVING AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 29P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECURVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN
THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
AFWA MM5, AND THE AUSTRALIAN TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFWA MM5 AND TLAPS CONTINUE TO HAVE TC 29P TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO PROBABLE EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AND MANY OF
THE STATISTICAL AND CLIMO AIDS SUPPORT RECURVATURE WHICH IS WHAT
PERSISTENCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN SUGGEST. THE NOGAPS AID
(NGPI) ALSO SHOWS A SOLUTION TO THE NORTHWEST SIMILAR TO AFWA BUT A
CLOSER ANALYSIS OF THE FIELDS REVEALS THAT THE VORTEX RECURVES. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON AFWA MM5 AND TLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030608 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (GINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 18.7S6 165.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 165.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.9S9 169.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 166.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
AND 65 KNOTS. TC 29P HAS LINKED WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND IS NOW TRACKING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A FAST-PACED TRACK
TAKING THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF 29P POLEWARD. UKMET (EGRR) NOW
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA, AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED IN THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Document: gina.html
Updated: 9th June, 2003 |
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