Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone HARRIET [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS32 PGTW 20030302 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.1S6 106.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 106.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 14.7S2 108.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 15.2S8 109.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 15.8S4 111.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.3S0 113.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 107.1E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND A 020006Z8 TRMM PASS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID- LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR) AND NOGAPS. UKMET TRACKED THE SYSTEM FASTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR, NOGAPS, AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 15 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 012051Z9 MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030302 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z1 --- NEAR 14.9S4 108.3E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 108.3E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 15.3S9 109.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 15.6S2 110.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 15.9S5 112.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 16.0S7 113.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 108.7E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021421Z0 SSM/I PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND THE SSM/I PASS. MIROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD CIRCULATION, HOWEVER ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THROUGH 24 HOURS, ATERWARDS, TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR) AND NOGAPS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR AND NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030303 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z9 --- NEAR 14.7S2 110.2E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 110.2E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 14.9S4 111.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 15.1S7 112.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 15.3S9 114.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 15.5S1 115.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 110.6E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, NOGAPS, AND GFS AVIATION (AVN). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030303 21:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z2 --- NEAR 14.7S2 111.5E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 111.5E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 14.9S4 112.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 114.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 15.9S5 115.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 17.2S0 115.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 111.8E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 21S TO BE A SMALL, RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. TC 21S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT A STEADY STATE OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES INDICATE THAT TC 21S IS BEING HAMPERED IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED BY THE NUMEROUS ISLANDS THAT COMPRISE INDONESIA TO THE NORTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UK MET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL (AVN) THE LONE OUTLIER ACCELERATING 19S TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: IN REMARKS, CHANGED TC 19S TO CORRECT STORM NUMBER, TC 21S. RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030304 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z0 --- NEAR 15.0S6 112.2E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 112.2E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 15.4S0 113.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 16.0S7 113.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.2S1 113.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 19.8S8 112.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 112.4E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 21S IS BEING HAMPERED IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED BY THE NUMEROUS ISLANDS THAT COMPRISE INDONESIA TO THE NORTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL AS THE OUTLIER HOLDING TC 21S TO AN EASTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030304 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z3 --- NEAR 15.1S7 113.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 113.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 114.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 16.6S3 115.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 18.0S9 115.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.3S3 114.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 20.3S5 112.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 113.9E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 40 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL CONTINUING AS THE FARTHEST OUTLIER HOLDING TC 21S TO AN EASTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8. RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 15.4S0 114.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 114.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 16.1S8 115.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 17.2S0 115.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 18.5S4 115.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 19.6S6 113.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 21.1S4 111.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 114.7E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 21S HAS DECREASED IN AREAL SIZE, AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY POLEWARD AND ULTIMATELY REVERSING COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER MAKING THE TURN POLEWARD, TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z1 --- NEAR 16.2S9 115.1E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 115.1E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 16.9S6 115.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 17.8S6 115.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 18.9S8 114.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 20.0S2 113.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 21.5S8 111.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 115.2E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 21S HAS DECREASED IN AREAL SIZE, AND SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM FROM THE WEAK DEEP CONVECTION. TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE ULTIMATELY REVERSING COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 17.0S8 115.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 115.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 17.7S5 115.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 18.7S6 115.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 19.4S4 114.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 20.5S7 114.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 22.4S8 112.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 115.4E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM FROM THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE ULTIMATELY REVERSING COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z4 --- NEAR 17.3S1 115.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 115.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 18.0S9 116.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 18.8S7 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 19.7S7 115.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 21.0S3 114.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 23.4S9 112.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 116.0E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RE-INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AVN AN OUTLIER TURNING TC 21S SHARPLY WEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS AVN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.1S0 116.0E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 116.0E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.0S0 115.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 19.8S8 114.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 20.6S8 114.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 21.6S9 112.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 23.5S0 110.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 115.9E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL MODEL (TCLPS), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. EGRR AND TCLPS ARE FARTHEST POLEWARD AND TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND NEAR LEARMONTH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 19.0S0 114.8E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 114.8E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.9S9 113.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 20.7S9 112.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 21.6S9 111.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 22.6S0 110.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 25.0S7 107.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 114.5E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z9 --- NEAR 19.4S4 114.4E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 114.4E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 20.1S3 113.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 20.9S1 112.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 21.8S1 111.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 22.8S2 110.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 25.5S2 108.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 114.1E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0, 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z5 --- NEAR 19.3S3 115.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 115.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 19.9S9 113.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 20.8S0 112.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 21.6S9 111.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 22.9S3 110.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 26.2S0 108.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 114.7E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR POINT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061730Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 114.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 114.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 19.5S5 113.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 20.1S3 112.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 20.9S1 111.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 22.5S9 110.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 26.0S8 108.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 114.3E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR POINT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 062330Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 114.3E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 114.3E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 19.6S6 113.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 20.3S5 112.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 21.3S6 111.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 23.2S7 110.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 27.6S5 110.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 114.1E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN DUE TO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3, 072100Z0, 080300Z1 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ WTXS32 PGTW 0715001. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z0 --- NEAR 19.3S3 113.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 113.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 19.8S8 112.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 20.7S9 110.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 22.2S6 109.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 24.4S0 108.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 28.8S8 110.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 113.3E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 071041Z3 SSM/I DEPICT THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BY MID 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN ANALYZES A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0, 080300Z1, 080900Z7 AND 081500Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z6 --- NEAR 19.5S5 113.6E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 113.6E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 20.1S3 112.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 21.3S6 110.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 23.2S7 110.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 25.1S8 109.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 31.0S4 112.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 113.2E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, AS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOLDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER SST WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GO0D AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL FURTHER WEST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030308 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z8 --- NEAR 19.7S7 113.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 113.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 20.5S7 111.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 22.1S5 110.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 112.8E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS, AND THEN ENCOUNTER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER SST WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GO0D AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL FURTHER WEST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030308 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 20.2S4 112.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 112.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 21.5S8 111.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 23.4S9 109.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 112.0E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT WEAK CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION, TLAPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GO0D AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20030309 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 021 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z9 --- NEAR 21.0S3 111.3E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 111.3E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 22.2S6 109.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 110.7E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL VERY SMALL IN AREAL SIZE. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN SOUTH, PARALLEL TO THE AUSTRALIA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH, AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TC 21S SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AS THE REMNANTS CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION, AND THE AUSTRALIA BOM MODELS (TLAPS AND TCLAPS) ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 11 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
Document: harriet.html
Updated: 9th March, 2003 |
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