[Index]
Tropical Cyclone INIGO
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone INIGO [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20030331 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 311351ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S7 122.8E3 TO 11.2S4 118.6E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311130Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 122.5E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S1 126.8E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 122.5E0, NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF EAST TIMOR IN
THE SAVU SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ANALYSIS ALOFT INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011400Z6.
4. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030401 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZMAR2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 10.0S1 120.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 120.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 10.4S5 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 10.7S8 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 11.0S2 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 11.4S6 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 119.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S, LOCATED ON SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY AFTER LEAVING THE WEST COAST OF SUMBA UNDER A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND NOGAPS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z4 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 311351ZMAR03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030402 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 10.9S0 119.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 119.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 11.6S8 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 11.9S1 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 12.2S5 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.8S1 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 119.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AFTER 36 HOURS, TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWEST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN TRACK DIRECTION
AND SPEED ARE DUE TO VARYING INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES, AS
WELL AS SOME INTERACTION WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
SUMATRA. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 AND 030300Z6.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030402 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 11.3S5 118.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 118.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 11.7S9 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 12.3S6 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 13.0S4 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.7S1 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 118.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 AND 55
KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER
36 HOURS, TC 26S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY AND TRACK MORE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC
26S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, GFDN, NOGAPS, AND THE
AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030403 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 11.9S1 118.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 118.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 12.5S8 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 13.0S4 116.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.7S1 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.3S8 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 117.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
022330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. A 022334Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
INDICATES SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS DEVELOPED A 25 NM EYE. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS
NOW EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING
SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL (TLAPS)
AND REGIONAL (TCLAPS) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AVIATION AND
EGGR INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM WEAKER AND AS A RESULT, TRACKS TC 26S
WESTWARD OF THE OTHER DYNAMIC AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR AND
AVIATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 AND 040300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030403 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 12.1S4 116.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 116.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.6S9 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.3S7 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.2S7 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.1S7 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 116.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115
KNOTS. TC 26S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
26S IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION AT ABOVE A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN HOLD
INTENSITY BEFORE SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A REGION OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME, WHEN MORE PRONOUNCED
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, AND GFDN ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER
WEST BEFORE RECURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS EXCLUDING THE AVIATION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 AND
041500Z0. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030404 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 12.5S8 115.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 115.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.3S7 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.1S6 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 14.6S1 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.3S9 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.3S1 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
032330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC
26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.
TC 26S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTERWARDS, TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES AFTER RECURVATURE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION MODEL, GFDN, AND THE
AUSTRALIAN TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 AND 050300Z8. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE,
USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030404 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 13.6S0 114.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 114.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.4S9 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.3S9 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.1S8 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.1S9 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.5S5 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 114.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC
26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36
HOURS, THEN RECURVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEREAFTER. TC 26S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE
SHORT TERM IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMING MORE RESTRICTED. TC 26S ENTERS A
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AFTER 36 HOURS, AT WHICH
TIME PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN. THE UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION DYNAMIC MODELS PERSIST IN
TRACKING 26S FURTHER WEST BEFORE RECURVATURE, WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN
TURNING FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS BIASED IN FAVOR OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 AND 051500Z1. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM,
USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030404 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 14.0S5 113.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 113.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.7S2 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 15.4S0 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 16.2S9 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.5S3 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 21.1S4 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 113.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC
26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
EARLY PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARDS, TC 26S WILL BEGIN RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
26S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE SHORT TERM IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUING DURING
THE EARLY PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE RIDGE AXIS,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO AS THE POINT OF RECURVATURE DIFFERS IN THE MODELS.
NGPS, GFDN AND AFWA MM5 RECURVE EARLY, MAKING FOR LANDFALL EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR)
AND THE AUSTRALIAN TYPHOON MODEL (TCLAPS) RECURVE LATER, MAKING FOR
LANDFALL NEAR LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NGPS AND AFWA
MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030405 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 14.3S8 113.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 113.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.0S6 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.7S3 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.5S2 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.9S7 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.7S0 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 113.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS AN 18NM SYMMETRICAL EYE. TC 26S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE EARLY
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARDS, TC 26S WILL BEGIN RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 26S
WILL WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUING.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TC
26S. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE POINT OF RECURVATURE CONTINUING TO DIFFER IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. NGPS AFWA MM5 RECURVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER, MAKING FOR
LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE AUSTRALIAN TYPHOON MODEL (TCLAPS) RECURVE
LATER, MAKING FOR LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NGPS AND AFWA MM5. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030405 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 14.5S0 113.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 113.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 14.9S4 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.6S2 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 16.6S3 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.2S1 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 23.1S6 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 113.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
050530Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 130 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 18NM (APPROX.) SYMMETRICAL
EYE. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RECURVE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS
INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA IN ABOUT
60 HOURS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAIN DRYER AIR AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TWO CLUSTERS OF
MODELS DIFFER IN THE DEGREE OF WESTERLY INFLUENCE IN THE STORM
TRACK. NGPS AND AFWA MM5 CALL FOR A STRONGER WESTERLY INFLUENCE AND
TRACK TC 26S TOWARD PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE AUSTRALIAN TC MODEL (TCLAPS) BRING TC
26S CLOSER TO LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS, OUR
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SECOND MODEL CLUSTER WITH EGRR, AVN,
AND TCLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030405 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 14.6S1 113.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 113.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 14.9S4 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.5S1 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.0S0 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.6S1 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. THE
EYE FEATURE IS CLOUD-FILLED AT THIS TIME. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY RECURVE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY
A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAIN DRYER AIR AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AT AN INCREASING RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST REASONING. OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR EGRR, AVN, AND
TCLAPS MODEL SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE TC 26S WILL
ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
OF LATITUDE 20S. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030405 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 112.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 112.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.5S1 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 16.5S2 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 17.8S6 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.5S5 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 23.8S3 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. THE
CLOUD FILLED EYE HAS BECOME A BANDING EYE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC
26S HAS BEGUN RECURVATURE INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 26S
WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND ENTRAIN DRIER AIR AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD, WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM AT AN INCREASING RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 48
HOURS, INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL
FURTHER INCREASE THE RATE OF DISSIPATION FOR THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
REASONING. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS, WITH A BIAS TOWARDS NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND
THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL (TLAPS) MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9, 060900Z5,
061500Z2 AND 062100Z9.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030406 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 15.3S9 112.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 112.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.6S2 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.5S2 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.0S9 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.4S6 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 25.1S8 123.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 112.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 26S
CONTINUES TO RECURVE INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
INCREASES. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AUSTRALIA.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060600Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0
AND 070900Z6. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030406 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.6S2 112.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 112.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.8S6 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.7S7 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.2S6 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 25.2S9 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 26S
APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED AND HAS BEGUN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
26S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND TURN FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASES. TC 26S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH OUR FORECAST TRACK FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0,
070900Z6 AND 071500Z3. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030406 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 16.4S1 113.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 113.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 17.7S5 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.4S4 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.5S8 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 23.5S0 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 113.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. TC 26S HAS BEGUN RECURVATURE AND BEGUN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, INCREASING TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 26S IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASES. TC 26S IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AUSTRALIA, DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0, 070900Z6, 71500Z3
AND 072100Z0.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030407 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 113.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 113.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.6S5 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.4S6 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.4S8 119.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 24.3S9 121.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 113.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. TC 26S CONTINUES TO RECURVE, TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND TRACK FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 26S
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AUSTRALIA, DISSIPATING AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OUR FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6, 071500Z3, 072100Z0 AND 080300Z1.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030407 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 17.5S3 113.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 113.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.3S3 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.3S6 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 23.2S7 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 114.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED EAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 26S SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR FORECAST
TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3, 072100Z0,
080300Z1 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030407 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 18.3S2 114.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 114.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.0S2 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.0S4 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 115.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 26S SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER
LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0, 080300Z1 AND
080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030407 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 18.9S8 115.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 115.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.3S5 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 22.0S4 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 116.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
COINCIDENT WITH APPROACHING LANDFALL. TC 26S CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR
LANDFALL WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE REMNANTS OF 26S AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER LAND. ONE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF BOM TLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP
AVIATION TRACK THE REMNANTS SOUTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA, WHILE NOGAPS, GFDN, BOM TCLAPS, AND UK MET OFFICE (EGRR)
MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM FAR INLAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CLUSTER AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1, 080900Z7 AND 081500Z4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030408 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 19.8S8 115.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 115.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 21.0S3 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.8S2 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 115.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. LATEST ANIMATED IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY EXPOSED. THE LLCC HAS TRACKED ALMOST
DUE SOUTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND LANDFALL IS NOW FORECAST
FURTHER TO THE WEST, BETWEEN ONSLOW AND KARRATHA. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE NOW WIDELY DISPARATE WITH RESPECT TO MOTION OF TC 26S OVER
LAND. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
GIVEN THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7, 081500Z4 AND 082100Z1. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030408 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 21.9S2 117.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 117.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 24.3S9 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 118.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO) MADE LANDFALL AT (APPROX) 080700Z5
BETWEEN MARDIE AND DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT
LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. TC 26S HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFDN, NOGAPS AND
EGRR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE,
USAF.//
=========================================================================
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Updated: 9th April, 2003 |
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