[Index]
Tropical Cyclone KALUNDE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone KALUNDE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20030304 21:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042121ZMAR03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 11.5S7 78.4E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041730Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 78.4E9. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
78.5E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 78.7E2, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
041307Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS INCREASED
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
PRIMARILY WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052130Z1.
4. RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030305 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042121ZMAR2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 11.4S6 77.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 77.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 11.4S6 76.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 11.5S7 75.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.9S1 75.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 13.1S5 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 77.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEAL THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON UKMET, THE BETA EFFECT
MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 042121ZMAR2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030305 21:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 002B AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 10.9S0 77.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 77.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 11.2S4 76.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 11.6S8 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 12.1S4 75.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 12.8S1 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 77.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST BASED ON A
052032Z2 SSMI PASS. TC 23S HAS TRACED A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
HOWEVER THE ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 23S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 23S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AVN AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030306 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 11.3S5 76.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 76.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.9S1 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 12.5S8 74.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.1S5 74.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.9S3 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 76.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. A 060406Z6 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MM5,
TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN./
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030306 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 11.8S0 75.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 75.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 12.4S7 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.1S5 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.8S2 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.7S2 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 74.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 65 KNOTS.
A RECENT SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MM5,
TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061730Z7 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030307 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 12.4S7 73.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 73.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.1S5 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.9S3 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.8S3 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.7S3 69.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77, AND 90
KNOTS. A 070243Z6 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A 29 NM EYE. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MM5, TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR)
MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND
080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030308 03:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 13.8S2 71.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 71.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 14.4S9 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.2S8 68.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.4S1 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.8S7 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 71.0E8.
THE WARNING IS AMENDED BASED ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND,
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S
(KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. A 072318Z1 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS A 30 NM EYE. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS
ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
23S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND THE UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z4 AND 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 14.4S9 69.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 69.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.1S7 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.0S7 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.9S6 67.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.8S6 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 69.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, HOLD STEADY AND
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EQUATORWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND THE UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z2 AND 091500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT
KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.4S0 68.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 68.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.7S3 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.1S8 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 16.8S5 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.3S2 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 68.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 120 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN MORE
POLEWARD THEREAFTER, AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5,
AUSTRALIA BOM TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030309 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 16.1S8 67.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 67.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.6S3 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.1S9 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.6S4 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.6S5 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 67.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 125 KNOTS. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS THAT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO ERODE ON THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN MORE POLEWARD, AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. TC 23S WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER RELATIVELY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 16.7S4 67.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 67.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.2S0 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.8S6 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.7S6 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.9S9 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 67.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) AND QUIKSCAT PASSES REVEAL A
DECREASING INTENSITY TREND, AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 23S. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
TC 23S FORECAST TRACK WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.
TC 23S WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT PAST THE RIDGE AXIS AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AFWA MM5
MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND THE UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE BIASED EAST AND WEST, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 17.5S3 66.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 66.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.1S0 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.5S4 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.2S2 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.1S3 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
AND QUIKSCAT PASSES REVEAL A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND, AND THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 23S.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. TC 23S WILL WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND THEN WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
AND AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND
111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030311 03:00z RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 65.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 65.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.1S0 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.5S4 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 19.2S2 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 19.7S7 64.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 65.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED EHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. TC 23S WILL WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
AND AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND
120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.4S3 64.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 64.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.8S7 64.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 19.4S4 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 20.1S3 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 20.8S0 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 64.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME COMPLETELY SYMMETRICAL. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
23S WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INCREASINGLY POLEWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE EGRR MODEL HAS THE SYSTEM AT A WEAKER
INTENSITY AND RESULTS IN A STEERING LEVEL THAT PROPAGATES THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD THAN THE OTHER DYNAMIC AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
A PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT
LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 18.8S7 64.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 64.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 19.5S5 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 20.3S5 63.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 21.1S4 63.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 22.1S5 63.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 64.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 105 KNOTS. A 112250Z1 TRMM
PASS DEPICTS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 23S WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND
UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z3 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7.
RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 015 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030313 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 20.4S6 64.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 64.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 21.3S6 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 22.4S8 64.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 23.9S4 64.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 25.6S3 64.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 64.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST, BELOW THE AXIS
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S WILL
WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO BE SLOW DUE TO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT
36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND
140300Z8.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030313 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 21.7S0 64.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 64.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 22.7S1 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 24.0S6 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 25.6S3 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.4S3 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 64.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BELOW THE
AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A POLEWARD TRACK
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND
141500Z1. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030314 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 22.9S3 65.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 65.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 24.0S6 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 25.7S4 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.4S3 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 28.9S9 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BELOW
THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY, AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A
POLEWARD TRACK INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 23S WILL ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z5 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030314 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 24.8S4 65.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S4 65.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.1S9 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 28.1S1 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 31.0S4 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 34.3S0 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.1S8 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BELOW
THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND
151500Z2. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030315 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 26.0S8 65.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 65.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.7S6 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 30.2S5 66.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 26.4S2 65.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030315 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 28.7S7 66.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S7 66.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 31.0S4 66.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 29.3S4 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE
DUE TO THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND BE
EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. RELEASED
BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
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Document: kalunde.html
Updated: 17th March, 2003 |
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