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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary August 2002
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                                AUGUST, 2002

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)


                            AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS
  --> Northwest Pacific still quite active with four typhoons
  --> Okinawa, Korea and China experience typhoon strikes
  --> Another Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific
  --> Central Pacific produces a hurricane/typhoon
  --> Some minor tropical storms in the Atlantic


               ***** Feature of the Month for August *****

                         A CYCLONE PHASE SPACE

     This monthly feature is the second in a series highlighting some of
  the papers presented at the recent AMS 25th Conference on Hurricanes
  and Tropical Meteorology in San Diego, California.    As previously
  explained, three of the papers really excited me as they introduced new
  and innovative solutions to some of the problematic issues and challenges
  facing tropical cyclone forecasters today.  One of the often challenging
  issues that operational forecasters have to deal with is the
  determination of the point at which a tropical cyclone undergoing
  extratropical transition should be categorized as fully extratropical
  and no longer requiring tropical-type warnings.    A related problem
  concerns the classification of subtropical/hybrid systems.  Some warning
  centers do not operationally employ a subtropical cyclone category, but
  for those which do, it is often difficult to decide just when a
  particular storm system warrants formal subtropical cyclone warnings
  (which are similar in format to tropical cyclone warnings).   And
  furthermore, if a subtropical storm is so classified operationally, the
  point at which to designate it as a tropical cyclone--if at all--is often
  not easy to decide.

     In general, prior to the satellite era, oceanic storms were basically
  considered as belonging to two categories:  tropical and extratropical.
  Tropical cyclones by and large formed in the tropics or over warm
  subtropical waters and were considered warm-core and non-frontal.
  Extratropical cyclones were considered to be frontal cyclones through
  part of their life cycles and also cold-core.   Any exceptions, i.e.,
  warm-core frontal LOWs or non-frontal cold-core LOWs, were usually just
  considered rare exceptions to the rule.   Regular satellite coverage of
  the oceans by the late 1960s had revealed the occurrence of a regular
  class of cyclones, at least in the North Atlantic, which at some point
  of their life cycles were distinctly not connected to a surface cold
  front and had some organized convection, but were not warm-core either
  as a tropical cyclone should be.  Moreover, many of these eventually
  evolved into storms with convective warm cores very much like tropical
  cyclones.  Hence, the "birth" of the subtropical cyclone in Atlantic
  terminology.  A few years later, infrared satellite imagery had begun to
  reveal that certain rapidly developing extratropical LOWs, especially
  off the U. S. East Coast but also in other basins, often exhibited warm
  cores but were also frontal.  Thus, the waters became even more muddied.

     Often synoptic-scale cyclones have been referred to as a spectrum,
  usually depicted on a single axis with extratropical cyclones at one end
  and classic tropical cyclones at the other.  Subtropical storms, polar
  LOWs, and other types of hybrid systems were placed at various points
  on the axis between the extremes.  Some years ago Jack Beven of TPC/NHC
  devised a cyclone classification square in which the horizontal axis
  depicted frontal characteristics and the vertical axis represented the
  the thermal properties of the core.     Thus, subtropical cyclones
  (non-frontal and cold-core) were placed at the lower left corner,
  classic extratropical cyclones (frontal and cold-core) at the lower
  right, tropical cyclones (non-frontal and warm-core) at the upper left,
  and extratropical "bombs" (frontal and warm-core) at the upper right.
  Systems such as monsoon depressions, polar LOWs, and "strange" hybrids
  were placed at various positions on the square.  The scheme was a neat
  idea and helped to put things in a better perspective, but was very
  general and not quantified.

     Recently Bob Hart of Pennsylvania State University, along with Jenni
  Evans also of Penn State, devised a new technique which shows great
  promise in providing some rigorous, quantitative guidance in classifying
  cyclones.  To generalize, it could be said that the cyclone phase
  space, as it is called, is a quantification and an extension to three
  dimensions of Jack's earlier diagram.  The title of the poster which
  was presented at the poster session was "A Cyclone Phase Space Derived
  From Thermal Wind and Thermal Asymmetry".  A special thanks to Bob and
  Jenni for giving me their permission to feature the cyclone phase space
  and for reviewing this article.

     The introductory paragraph written by Bob Hart for the poster session
  abstract defines the purpose and the usefulness of such a technique.
  "It is often difficult to distinguish tropical cyclone (TC) development
  from subtropical cyclone development or hybrid cyclone development within
  operational forecast models.    Yet, knowledge of the nature of the
  forecast cyclone development within those models is essential to
  quantifying the potential threat and intrinsic intensity forecast
  uncertainty associated with that cyclone.    Further, the accurate
  forecasting of extratropical transition of a TC is crucial to the type
  and extent of marine and public warnings issued.   Thus, for both the
  extratropical cyclone and tropical cyclone communities, diagnostics
  indicating cyclone phase may be helpful for providing insight into the
  current and forecast cyclone evolution and potential threat and forecast
  uncertainty given by numerical models.  An objectively defined continuum
  of cyclone phase space is illustrated here to address this issue.  The
  two parameters chosen to define cyclone phase here are thermal asymmetry
  and thermal wind magnitude.  While these are not the only parameters on
  which to produce a phase space, they were found to provide a physically
  insightful description of the full range of synoptic-scale cyclones."

     A very important characteristic which indicates the type of cyclone
  and its future evolution is its frontal nature (or lack of).  Indeed,
  whether or not a given cyclone is frontal in nature is one of the most
  important parameters used by TPC/NHC to determine whether or not to
  classify a system as tropical or subtropical.  The basic operational
  definitions of those categories of cyclones state up front that a
  system must be non-frontal to qualify as a tropical or subtropical
  cyclone.  The cyclone phase space technique defines the frontal nature
  as the storm-motion-relative 900-600 hPa thickness symmetry across the
  cyclone within a 500-km radius--denoted by the symbol "B".  The 500-km
  radius was chosen to be consistent with the average radius over which
  cyclonic, convergent inflow has been observed for tropical cyclones,
  and the use of a layer-average thickness makes the parameter resistant
  to short-term fluctuations in temperature resulting from transient
  convective activity.

     The areal mean of the layer-average thickness is computed for the
  right and left semicircles of the cyclone (with respect to its motion
  vector), and the value for the left semicircle subtracted from the
  right.  This definition of B successfully distinguishes asymmetric
  frontal zones from symmetric local extrema of temperature associated
  with tropical cyclones.   A value of B near zero therefore implies
  thermal symmetry (non-frontality) while higher positive values of B
  indicate increasing thermal asymmetry (frontal nature).   A hemispheric
  flag (+1 for the Northern Hemisphere, -1 for the Southern Hemisphere)
  is multiplied times the right-minus-left delta thickness to keep the
  sign of B consistent in both hemispheres.

     The second important characteristic used to determine the type of
  cyclone is whether it is cold-core or warm-core.  This property can
  be distinguished by examining the magnitude of the cyclone isobaric
  height gradient within a 500-km radius of the surface cyclone center,
  proportional to the geostrophic wind magnitude.   If this quantity
  increases with height, the system is cold-core; a decrease with
  height implies a warm-core system.  This fundamental difference of
  thermal wind structure between tropical and extratropical cyclones
  was exploited to diagnose the cold vs warm-core cyclone evolution.
  The second cyclone phase parameter is defined as the vertical
  derivative of this horizontal height gradient (within a 500-km radius
  of the surface center) over the 900-600 hPa layer, denoted (here) by
  the symbol "-VT(L)".   The third cyclone phase parameter is the same
  quantity but for the 600-300 hPa layer ("-VT(U)").

     Positive values of -VT indicate a warm-core cyclone within the
  layer while negative values indicate a cold-core cyclone.  A tropical
  cyclone, which exhibits a warm-core over a deep layer, will yield
  positive values for both -VT(L) and -VT(U) with the former having
  the greater magnitude.   Conversely, for a cold-core extratropical
  cyclone, both thermal wind parameters are necessarily negative with
  -VT(U) having the greater magnitude.   However, some types of cyclones
  (e.g., subtropical cyclones, certain hybrids, and warm-front seclusion
  cyclones) may have a sign of -VT(L) that is different from -VT(U),
  i.e., shallow warm cores with colder air aloft.

     The three diagnostics (B, -VT(L), and -VT(U)) define the three-
  dimensional cyclone phase space, but since a trajectory through a
  cube is difficult to visualize, the phase space is presented using
  two cross-sections: B vs -VT(L) and -VT(U) vs -VT(L).  Each cross-
  section thus divides into four quadrants.  Some examples of the
  types of cyclones that fit into each include:

  1. Cross-section of B vs -VT(L)

     Cold-core/Frontal       Developing/mature extratropical cyclones
                             Extratropically transitioned TCs

     Cold-core/Non-frontal   Occluded extratropical cyclones
                             Some subtropical cyclones (or neutral core)

     Warm-core/Frontal       Warm-seclusions and some hybrids
                             Extratropically transitioning TCs

     Warm-core/Non-frontal   Tropical and some subtropical cyclones

  2. Cross-section of -VT(U) vs -VT(L)

     Upper cold/Lower cold   Extratropical cyclones
                             Extratropically transitioned TCs

     Upper cold/Lower warm   Warm-seclusions and some hybrids
                             Most subtropical cyclones

     Upper warm/Lower warm   Tropical cyclones

     I've described things about as completely as possible without the
  aid of graphics.   However, fortunately, Bob and Jenni have a website
  devoted to the cyclone phase space.   Thorough descriptions of the
  parameters are included with illustrative diagrams, and examples of
  the cyclone phase space, including animations made with various models,
  are available for many, many historical cyclones of various types.
  A very important feature of the website are the near-realtime phase
  space displays of operational analyses and forecasts for eight global
  and regional models.  The web user has the ability to intercompare these
  for each storm that evolves during the forecast period, and a "phase
  space consensus" of all these model storms helps guide the user as to
  their similarity in structural evolution.

     It should be pointed out that the inputs to the cyclone phase space
  procedure come from various model analyses and forecasts--not from
  actual data that might have been gathered in and around a given cyclone
  (although that is planned for the near future).  Bob and Jenni are
  currently working on an attempt to produce phase diagrams based upon
  actual observations from satellite imagery as well as a comprehensive
  study of subtropical cyclones that includes a phase space analysis for
  defining the storm phase.

     The realtime phase diagrams have been used experimentally and in
  some cases operationally by TPC/NHC and the Canadian Hurricane Centre
  since September, 2001, with considerable success.  Hopefully, their
  use by other forecasting agencies will expand.

     Interesting persons are strongly encouraged to visit the Penn State
  website at the following URL:>

                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for August:  3 tropical storms

                        Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.

     The reports on Tropical Storms Cristobal and Dolly were written by
  Kevin Boyle of Stoke-on-Trent, UK.   A special thanks to Kevin for
  writing the summaries for those cyclones.

                   Atlantic Tropical Activity for August

     Tropical cyclone activity in the month of August was somewhat below
  normal for the second consecutive year.   Three named storms developed
  (the 1950-2001 average is 2.65), but as was the case in 2001, none of
  the tropical storms reached hurricane intensity.  The average number of
  hurricanes and intense hurricanes forming during August is 1.52 and 0.58,
  respectively.   Tropical activity in August, 2002, bore some resemblance
  to that of August, 2001, when three tropical storms also developed.  Of
  the three 2001 cyclones, two formed in the tropics from disturbances of
  African origin while one formed in the Gulf of Mexico of non-tropical
  origin.  This year, two storms formed in higher latitudes, both spawned
  by the same trough of low pressure, while one formed from a tropical wave
  in the eastern Atlantic.   Another similarity was that the first storm of
  the month in both seasons (Barry in 2001, Bertha in 2002) made landfall
  along the U. S. Gulf Coast.  However, the 2002 storms were all weaker
  than their 2001 counterparts.  All three of the 2001 August storms peaked
  at 60 kts, just shy of hurricane intensity while none of the 2002 systems
  became that strong--Dolly was the strongest at 55 kts.   Also, Tropical
  Storm Barry of 2001 made landfall on the Florida Panhandle almost at
  hurricane intensity while Bertha was barely defensible as a tropical
  storm when it made landfall in southeastern Louisiana.

     Tropical Storm Cristobal formed off the southeastern U. S. coast in
  the same trough which had spawned Bertha in the Gulf of Mexico but moved
  away from the coast, soon merging with a frontal zone.  Late in the month
  Tropical Storm Dolly formed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and at
  one point appeared quite well-organized and was forecast to increase to
  hurricane intensity.  However, dry air and unfavorable shear took their
  toll on the storm, and after struggling for several days, Dolly turned
  northward and dissipated northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

                          TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
                               4 - 9 August

  A. Storm Origins

     Bertha was a short-lived, minimal tropical storm which formed just
  off the southeastern Louisiana coast and moved inland and weakened
  without much ado within 24 hours.  The system then spent a few days
  drifting around over south-central Louisiana, bringing heavy rains which
  amounted to nearly 200 mm in some localities.  On 2 August a trough of
  low pressure extended from the north-central Gulf of Mexico across the
  Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic for several hundred miles.
  Thunderstorm activity was disorganized, but pressures in the northern
  Gulf had fallen some since the previous day and conditions were not all
  that unfavorable for development.  There was little change in the
  system during the next day, but during the morning of 4 August, satellite
  and radar observations indicated that the broad low-pressure area in the
  Gulf had become better organized.  A Special Tropical Disturbance State-
  ment noting this was issued at 1730 UTC, but the system was forecast to
  drift west-northwestward without significant strengthening.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     As the afternoon of 4 August progressed, visible satellite imagery and
  radar indicated that the circulation pattern had become well-defined
  enough to classify the system as a tropical depression.    Therefore,
  advisories on Tropical Depression 02 were begun at 2100 UTC, placing
  the broad center about 75 nm south-southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi.
  The MSW was estimated at 25 kts and was forecast to increase to only
  30 kts by the time the depression made landfall in southeastern
  Louisiana.   Tropical weather systems, however, are known for surprises!
  A reconnaissance mission into the depression at 04/2312 UTC found 1500 m
  flight-level winds of 47 kts and a CP of 1009 mb.  Also, the South Biloxi
  buoy reported 10-min avg winds of 33 kts, gusting to 41 kts, at about the
  same time.   Therefore, TD-02 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha in a
  special advisory at 04/2330 UTC.  Bertha was then centered approximately
  55 nm south-southeast of Gulfport, Mississippi, or about 65 nm southeast
  of New Orleans, moving northwestward at 6 kts with the MSW estimated at
  35 kts.    Tropical storm warnings were issued for portions of the
  Mississippi and southeast Louisiana coasts.

     The upper-level outflow pattern over Bertha had improved significantly
  during the day, although convective cloud tops were beginning to warm.
  Doppler radars at Slidell, Louisiana, and Mobile, Alabama, indicated
  decent banding on the north side of the circulation with occasional
  Doppler velocities of 35-50 kts between 1200 and 2400 meters elevation.
  Bertha's center was very near the southeast Louisiana coast about 40 nm
  southeast of New Orleans by 0300 UTC on 5 August.  Some strong convective
  cells had redeveloped near and northeast of the center, and the South
  Biloxi Buoy had recently reported 10-min avg winds of 32 kts, gusting to
  35 kts, so the MSW of 35 kts was maintained for the 0300 UTC advisory.
  The center of Tropical Storm Bertha moved inland over the swampy coast-
  line of southeast Louisiana during the early morning hours of the 5th
  and by 0900 UTC was located about 32 km south-southeast of New Orleans.
  Doppler radar data still indicated some spots of tropical storm force
  winds at 300 m and deep convection had increased over the eastern portion
  of the circulation, so the MSW remained at 35 kts due to the possibility
  of tropical storm force winds at the surface in squalls.

     Bertha was downgraded to a tropical depression in an intermediate
  advisory at 1200 UTC with the poorly-defined center located near New
  Orleans.  Winds had decreased to 30 kts with higher gusts in a few
  squalls east of the center.   By 1500 UTC the weakening depression was
  centered about 90 km north-northwest of the Crescent City with winds of
  only 25 kts, and NHC issued their final advisory on Bertha.   The
  Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in Camp Springs, Maryland,
  began issuing storm summaries for the remnants of Bertha beginning at
  05/2100 UTC.   The weak LOW spent the next couple of days moving very
  slowly in a general westward direction across southern Louisiana,
  passing very near Baton Rouge around 0900 UTC on the 6th.   HPC issued
  their final summary on the system at 0900 UTC on 7 August.  The center
  of the weak LOW had moved southwestward and was located near the coast
  of central Louisiana about 95 km south of New Iberia.

     The LOW continued to track west-southwestward over Gulf waters and
  its convective organization gradually improved.    At 2100 UTC NHC
  re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Bertha, placing the center
  about 80 nm east-southeast of Galveston, Texas.  Radar estimates from
  Houston and Lake Charles indicated winds to 35 kts aloft--these were
  adjusted to 25 kts at the surface.   The depression continued to move
  west-southwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico but did not
  intensify further.   Convection would occasionally develop but never
  became well-organized nor established near the center.   A U. S. Air
  Force reconnaissance plane investigated the system during the afternoon
  of the 8th and found a very poorly-defined circulation with gusty winds
  in a few thunderstorms.   During the evening of 8 August satellite and
  radar imagery indicated that new convection had developed near a well-
  defined mid-level circulation located about 35 nm northeast of the
  alleged LLCC in an elongated surface trough.    This led to a slight
  relocation of the reported center in the event that a new center formed
  near the developing convection.

     Bertha's MSW remained at 25 kts until the system made landfall on the
  Texas coast about 100 km south of Corpus Christi around 0900 UTC on the
  9th.  NHC issued their final advisory on Bertha at 1500 UTC, once more
  turning the responsibility for issuing summaries over to HPC.  Only one
  storm summary was issued by HPC, at 09/2100 UTC.  The remnants of Bertha
  were then located about 30 km east-southeast of Laredo, Texas, moving
  west-northwestward at about 9 kts.  The maximum winds associated with
  the system were only about 13 kts.  

  C. Meteorological Observations

     Bertha brought fairly heavy rains to portions of the Gulf Coast.
  Pascagoula, Mississippi, recorded 175 mm in the 30 hours ending at
  05/1200 UTC.  Van Cleave, Mississippi, netted 107 mm in the same 30-hour
  period, while a location in Slidell, Louisiana, recorded 91 mm.  Destin
  and Pensacola, Florida, each recorded storm totals of 70 mm.  A station
  identified as Pascagoula-Lott, Mississippi, recorded 181 mm in the
  24 hours ending at 06/0000 UTC.  McComb-Pike County, Mississippi, netted
  114 mm in the 24 hours ending at 06/1200 UTC with 77 mm falling in the
  next 12 hours.

     For the 24 hours ending at 06/1200 UTC, the following amounts were

     Angie, Louisiana            103 mm
     Tylertown, Mississippi      136 mm
     Franklinton, Louisiana      190 mm

     Rainfall amounts in Texas were generally rather light.  Corpus Christi
  recorded only 27 mm in a 30-hour period ending at 09/1800 UTC.  Rockport
  and Alice recorded 23 mm and 21 mm, respectively, during the same period.

  D. Damage and Casualties

     There was some minor damage due to flooding in coastal areas of
  Louisiana and Mississippi, and there was one fatality attributed to
  Bertha--a man drowned in heavy surf caused by the storm in Northwest

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                         TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
                              5 - 8 August

  A. Storm Origins

     Tropical Storm Cristobal formed from a trough of low-pressure
  covering the northern Gulf of Mexico and extending across Florida into
  the western Atlantic.  This trough also spawned Tropical Storm Bertha
  in the Gulf of Mexico.  TPC/NHC issued statements on the trough in
  Tropical Weather Outlooks (TWO) beginning at 0930 UTC, 2 August.  These
  statements continued to be issued for the next couple of days until at
  1530 UTC on the 4th, the TWO mentioned a weak area of low pressure near
  the South Carolina coast that was destined to become Cristobal.  The LOW
  was weak and development was not expected, but during the afternoon
  thunderstorm activity increased.

     Associated convection gradually became better organised and TPC/NHC
  issued the first advisory on Tropical Depression Three at 2100 UTC,
  5 August, based on satellite, radar and aircraft reports.  A Hurricane
  Hunter aircraft reported a central pressure of 1008 mb and flight-level
  winds of 33 kts in the southeast quadrant.  The depression was centred
  approximately 135 nm south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina,
  moving east-southeastward at 5 kts.  Satellite images showed that the
  LLCC was tucked in near a ragged CDO (cloud tops to minus 70 C) with
  some outer banding in the southeastern semicircle.  The tropical cyclone
  was initially moving east-southeastward south of the mid-latitude
  westerly wind belt and northeast of an anticyclone over Florida.
  TD Three was located in a zone of unfavourable northerly shearing
  conditions which it endured throughout its lifetime.  The shear pushed
  the associated deep convection to the south or southwest of the exposed
  LLCC.  Despite the shearing and the adverse effects of a strong cold
  front digging southward into the area, a reconnaissance flight into
  the system during the late afternoon of 6 August found a pressure of
  999 mb and flight-level winds of 48 to 52 kts between 1500 and 3000
  metres.   NHC released a special advisory at 06/2330 UTC upgrading
  TD Three to Tropical Storm Cristobal (Spanish for 'Christopher').
  Cristobal's centre was located about 290 nm east of Jacksonville,
  Florida, drifting slowly southward.  The MSW was estimated at 40 kts.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     Cristobal continued its slow and erratic southward push in the weak
  northerly steering flow.  Convection continued to be sheared toward the
  southern portions of the circulation.  On 7 August Cristobal began to
  resemble a frontal LOW on satellite images.     It still retained a
  vigorous circulation, however, with most of the convection contained in
  a curved band to the south of the centre.    Parts of the cloud-mass
  affected the northwestern Bahamas during this time.   Data from a recon-
  naissance aircraft indicated that Cristobal was still a 40-kt tropical
  storm (its peak intensity) with a minimum pressure of 1000 mb.  The
  storm's motion, however, had changed to a slow eastward crawl as a large
  mid to upper-level trough began to move off the US east coast.

     Despite this, Cristobal appeared a little better organised in
  satellite images early on the 8th as new, deep convection developed
  in the eastern and southern quadrants.  However, this rejuvenation was
  for a short time only.  The approaching trough began to finally push
  the weakening cyclone northeastward away from the United States.  The
  final advisory was issued by TPC/NHC at 2100 UTC on 8 August when a
  reconnaissance aircraft dispatched to investigate the health of Cristobal
  found that it was rapidly becoming extratropical and merging with a
  frontal zone.  This final advisory placed the centre of Cristobal about
  325 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving northeastward at 15 kts.  The
  remnant LOW was subsequently tracked across the Atlantic, passing near
  southeastern Newfoundland around 10/0600 UTC and to the northwest of
  the British Isles on 12-13 August, and was last seen heading toward
  the Arctic east of Greenland on the 14th as it was filling.

  C. Damage and Casualties

     There are no known casualties nor damage resulting from Tropical
  Storm Cristobal.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)

                          TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
                         29 August - 4 September

  A. Storm Origins

     The tropical wave that spawned Dolly crossed the coast of Africa on
  26 August.  TPC/NHC's Tropical Weather Outlooks (TWO) first mentioned
  the system at 2130 UTC on 27 August when it was located several hundred
  miles south of the Cape Verde Islands.     Some potential for slow
  development was noted as the system moved westward at 17 to 23 kts well
  to the south of the Cape Verdes.     The TWO at 1530 UTC on the 28th
  indicated that a tropical depression was possibly forming about 375 nm
  south-southwest of the Capes Verdes.  During the evening of the 28th
  convective activity became more concentrated, and the first advisory on
  Tropical Depression Four was issued by NHC at 1500 UTC on 29 August when
  satellite images indicated that the system had become better organised.
  The depression was then located roughly 550 nm southwest of the Cape
  Verde Islands.

     The cyclone displayed some banding features and very deep convection
  south of the centre, resulting in T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and
  SAB.  At this time TD Four was located over warm water and within a
  light wind shear environment.   A mid-level subtropical ridge to the
  north of the tropical cyclone was forecast to provide a west to west-
  northwest steering flow for the next couple of days.  The intensity was
  upgraded to 35 kts on the next advisory at 2100 UTC, 29 August, and the
  system was named Dolly--the fourth tropical storm of the 2002 season.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     Tropical Storm Dolly exhibited well-defined curved bands and the
  outflow was fair in all quadrants.  The centre of the storm was not well-
  established at this time and was embedded within a larger circulation.
  As time went by Dolly began to look more impressive with a large area
  of cold convective tops forming in a loose band over the western semi-
  circle.  Maximum winds on the 30/0300 UTC advisory were raised to 40 kts
  based on CI estimates of 45 kts from SAB, 35 kts from TAFB, and 30 kts
  from AFWA.  Outflow was good in all directions except eastward.  There
  was uncertainty in fixing the LLCC with infrared-based fixes a little to
  the south and QuikScat and SSM/I data suggesting an elongated centre a
  little further north.  The cloud pattern of Dolly took on a distorted
  appearance on the western side of the circulation but this did not affect
  the cold and persistent CDO.     Dolly's future as a tropical cyclone
  depended on how far south of the unfavourable upper-level westerlies
  north of 15N it would remain.

     In the meantime Dolly continued to strengthen with winds upped to
  55 kts on the 30/1500 UTC advisory.  This turned out to be the peak
  intensity.  The cyclone was then located approximately 775 nm south-
  west of the Cape Verdes.  Outflow was excellent at this time with the
  centre embedded in a large area of deep convection.   Later in the
  day though, convection began to decrease and the cloud pattern became
  more elongated.  Tropical Storm Dolly, however, still had not moved into
  the hostile shear environment and it was unclear why it had begun to
  weaken.  One possibility advanced was that dry Saharan air being sucked
  into the system was the culprit.  A SSM/I pass at 2055 UTC on 30 August
  revealed a completely exposed centre, but a later pass (at 30/2339 UTC)
  showed a new burst of convection to the west or southwest of the LLCC.
  However, the outflow centre was offset to the southwest of the LLCC,
  suggesting that the environment was becoming less favourable.  The SSM/I
  data showed the centre to be located further north and east than had
  been estimated.  Dolly remained south of the low to mid-level ridge, and
  by 31/0900 UTC was moving west-northwestward at 17 kts as it headed
  toward a weakness in the ridge near 60W.  Dolly's intensity had been
  nudged downward by 5 kts on each advisory following its peak of 55 kts,
  and by 31/1500 UTC the MSW had reached minimal tropical storm intensity
  of 35 kts.

     The storm had been producing deep convective bursts during the night
  of 30 August.  This bursting pattern continued, but Dolly was in poor
  shape during the 31st as it struggled to maintain minimal tropical
  storm strength.   By 0300 UTC on 1 September the cyclone had begun
  to feel the effects of the upper-level southwesterlies, although it
  still retained deep convection which was elongated northeastward/
  southwestward.    Outflow was better to the east of the system on the
  side away from the shearing southwesterlies.  The warning intensity was
  upped a bit to 40 kts at 2100 UTC based on a blend of Dvorak CI estimates
  of 35 kts from TAFB and 45 kts from SAB.  Deep convection had developed
  just north or over the LLCC and outflow was good everywhere.  The strong
  mid to upper-level trough located north of the Lesser Antilles
  gradually forced Dolly on a northward path, and despite the recent
  convective buildup, the storm still struggled to maintain an intensity
  of 40 kts.  Deep convection had moved to the southwest of the LLCC by
  0300 UTC, 2 September.

     The MSW was notched up a little more to 45 kts at 1500 UTC as deep
  convection had moved over the LLCC.     Dolly was beginning to look
  impressive again, but by 2100 UTC the LLCC had become fully-exposed once
  more.  Southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air intrusion were
  making a serious impact and the MSW was lowered back to 40 kts.
  Intermittent bursts of convection continued to occur over the system
  although the centre remained exposed.  At 0900 UTC on 3 September the
  MSW was bumped up to 45 kts again based on CI estimates of 45 kts from
  TAFB and SAB.   Dolly at this time was located about 450 nm east-
  northeast of the island of Guadeloupe--this was the westernmost point
  of its track.

     Visible satellite images on the morning of the 3rd showed that the
  centre of Dolly had reformed under the convection to the east.  The MSW
  remained at 45 kts and Dolly's convection fluctuated as the storm
  continued northward.  The intensity was downgraded to 35 kts at 04/0900
  UTC, based on CI estimates of 35 kts from all three satellite agencies,
  and Dolly continued moving northward with its LLCC exposed to the south-
  west of its main convection and banding features.    A strong mid to
  upper-level trough moved eastward over Dolly, completely stripping away
  the remaining convection.    The last advisory on Dolly from NHC was
  issued at 1500 UTC on 4 September and downgraded the system to a
  dissipating swirl of clouds, located approximately 850 nm southeast of
  Bermuda.  The remnants of Dolly continued to move northward and on the
  5th interacted with a broad trough of low pressure about 800 nm east of
  Bermuda.  Shower activity had increased and slow redevelopment was
  considered a possibility, but this failed to materialise.

  C. Damage and Casualties

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Dolly.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for August:  1 tropical depression
                        2 tropical storms
                        3 hurricanes **

  ** - one of these crossed the International Dateline and became a
       typhoon in the Northwest Pacific basin

               Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for August

     The Northeast Pacific basin became quite active during August.  Five
  named storms formed--three east of 140W in the Eastern North Pacific
  proper, and two west of 140W in the Central North Pacific.  The August
  averages for the whole basin (1971-2001) are 3.94 tropical storms, 2.39
  hurricanes, and 1.10 intense hurricanes.   Hurricanes Fausto and Hernan
  in the Eastern Pacific became intense with Hernan becoming the second
  Saffir/Simpson Category 5 hurricane of the year.   Hurricane Ele, which
  formed in the Central Pacific, also became intense, reaching Category 3
  intensity before crossing the International Dateline into the Northwest
  Pacific basin.   Ele continued as a typhoon/tropical storm west of the
  Dateline until the 10th of September.   In addition to the hurricanes,
  Tropical Storms Alika and Genevieve formed late in the month but failed
  to reach hurricane intensity.
     In addition to the named storms, there was one short-lived tropical
  depression tracked.  Tropical Depression 07E formed on 6 August about
  825 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas on the tip of the Baja California
  Peninsula.  The depression formed east of a strong mid to upper-level
  trough in an environment of southwesterly shear.  TD-07E was forecast
  to become a minimal tropical storm at best, but the winds remained at
  30 kts.  By late on 7 August the system was beginning to move over
  cooler SSTs, and with the unrelenting shear, began to dissipate.  The
  final advisory from TPC/NHC at 08/0300 UTC placed the weakening center
  approximately 925 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

     The summaries of Hurricanes Fausto and Hernan and Tropical Storm
  Genevieve were written by John Wallace of San Antonio, Texas.   A
  special thanks to John for his assistance.

                             HURRICANE FAUSTO
                          21 August - 3 September

  A. Storm Origins

     Hurricane Fausto originated from a tropical wave that left the African
  coast on 11 August, tracked uneventfully across the Atlantic basin, and
  entered the Northeast Pacific on the 17th (1), blossoming that same day.
  By the 19th there were definite signs of cyclonic organization, and the
  disturbance strengthened quickly late on the 20th.   The NHC issued the
  first warning on Tropical Depression Eight-E at 1700 UTC on 21 August,
  located approximately 425 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
  Eight-E's formation ended an unusually long "drought" in what is usually
  the peak of the NEP season, being the first tropical storm to form since
  Hurricane Elida formed nearly a month earlier.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     The depression became Tropical Storm Fausto on the next advisory (at
  2100 UTC on 21 August) as it tracked westward.   Highly favorable upper-
  level conditions and warm SSTs presaged another possible monster for the
  NEP basin, and Fausto delivered.  After 0300 UTC on the 22nd the storm
  deepened at a steady millibar per hour, reaching hurricane status at
  2100 UTC when located about 575 nm south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
  Upon its upgrade, the storm turned west-northwestward and embarked on
  a track that was remarkably consistent, even for the NEP.   Fausto's
  MSW broke 100 kts late on the 23rd, and at 1500 UTC on 24 August reached
  its peak MSW of 125 kts with an associated minimum CP of 935 mb.   The
  center of the Category 4 hurricane was then located roughly 800 nm
  southwest of Cabo San Lucas.  Fausto maintained its peak intensity for a
  respectable 18 hours before weakening rapidly as it crossed into cooler
     Fausto's MSW dropped below 100 kts on the 25th, and by the following
  day it was a tropical storm, being downgraded at 26/1500 UTC when located
  approximately 1300 nm east of Hilo, Hawaii.    On the 27th the cyclone
  weakened to a tropical depression and tracked past 140W into the Central
  Pacific Hurricane Center's AOR.   The CPHC issued the final advisory on
  Tropical Depression Fausto at 0900 UTC on 28 August, placing the weak
  center about 800 nm east-northeast of Hilo.
     The final advisory is usually the end of the story, but Fausto refused
  to die.  The vortex remained poorly-organized on the 28th as it continued
  its stubborn west-northwesterly track north of the Hawaiian Islands.  Its
  circulation was slightly more defined the following day, though it was
  still completely devoid of deep convection.  On the 30th, however, the
  vortex experienced a convective rejuvenation, and it held together
  remarkably well over the next two days.   On 1 September, deep convection
  redeveloped over the center and advisories were re-initiated on Tropical
  Depression Fausto at 2100 UTC.  Fausto's center was then located about
  950 nm northwest of Honolulu.   Even at its re-upgrade, Fausto remained
  on a steady west-northwestward track, and its organization was uncanny
  for a tropical cyclone at its latitude in the Central North Pacific.
  The regenerated depression was smaller than its earlier incarnation, and
  of arguable midget status.
     Early on the 2nd Fausto at last turned due north and accelerated in
  the flow ahead of an approaching trough.  Its organization and convection
  actually improved as it merged with a frontal zone early on the 3rd;
  whether this was due to extratropical transition is open to debate.
  Water vapor imagery showed no indication of dry air intrusion into the
  system, and Fausto looked tropical right up until its second final
  advisory at 0300 UTC on 3 September when it was centered approximately
  975 nm north-northeast of Midway.     Fausto's remnant--tropical or
  otherwise--became indefinable after 1200 UTC as it crossed the Aleutian
  chain.  (Editor's Note:  It should be mentioned that some CI estimates
  of 35 kts--primarily from SAB--were made during Fausto's "second wind",
  suggesting that the system was flirting with tropical storm intensity.)
     Fausto's rebirth was highly unusual.   Though Guillermo's (1997)
  regeneration was more dramatic, it did not remain tropical to as high a
  latitude as Fausto did.  Archived imagery of SSTs from OTIS (Optimum
  Thermal Interpolation System), courtesy of the Fleet Numerical Meteor-
  ology and Oceanography Center (2), strongly suggest that warm SST
  anomalies in the far North Pacific were responsible.   These anomalies
  were not due to El Nino, contrary to widespread popular misconception
  in 1997.

  C. Damage and Casualties
     No casualties or damages are known to have resulted from Hurricane

  D. References

    (1) NHC, August summary for Northeast Pacific, 2002.>


  (Report written by John Wallace)

                            TROPICAL STORM ALIKA
                                22 - 28 August

  A. Storm Origins

     Tropical Storm Alika was the first tropical cyclone to actually reach
  tropical storm intensity in the Central North Pacific (between longitudes
  140W and 180) in slightly over two years, the last being Tropical Storm
  Wene in August, 2000.   A Tropical Weather Outlook from TPC/NHC during
  the evening of 20 August noted that showers and thunderstorms associated
  with a westward-moving tropical wave about 1500 nm east-southeast of the
  Hawaiian Islands had become more concentrated and that there was a
  potential for some development over the next few days.    The system
  continued westward on 21 August with little change in organization,
  moving into the jurisdiction of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
  (CPHC) in Honolulu.  A Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC early on
  22 August noted that the disturbance appeared to be gathering strength.

     The first advisory on Tropical Depression 01C was issued by CPHC at
  2100 UTC on 22 August, placing the center about 900 nm southeast of Hilo,
  Hawaii.  The depression was in an environment of significant shearing
  with the deep convection a full degree west and southwest of the exposed
  LLCC.  The initial advisory did not call for the depression to strengthen
  into a tropical storm during the 72-hour forecast period.   However, no
  sooner had the system been upgraded to a tropical depression than it
  appeared to be falling apart.  Convection decreased dramatically, even
  though a small area of thunderstorms with warmer tops had formed over
  the circulation center.  Indeed, the CPHC forecasters were tempted to
  discontinue advisories, but since the SHIFOR model was indicating
  eventual strengthening, depression status was maintained.  A mid and
  upper-level circulation center was noted about 90 nm southwest of the
  LLCC around 23/0900 UTC.   But at 23/1500 UTC there was another turn-
  around.   Deep convection had blossomed dramatically almost over the
  assumed LLCC (even though the aforementioned mid-level circulation
  center was still located well to the southwest).

     TD-01C continued moving westward at a low latitude and very, very
  slowly became better organized.  The 24/0300 UTC advisory noted that
  vertical shear had diminished and that the LLCC appeared to be very close
  to the deepest convection.  Also, anticyclonic outflow appeared to be
  developing over the LLCC.  Development was somewhat hindered due to
  competing convective clusters in the vicinity, mainly to the west.  The
  24/0900 UTC advisory indicated that a possible Fujiwhara interaction
  might occur with a disturbance located to the west (pre-Ele).   But since
  vertical shear was minimal and SSTs were warm, further development was
  forecast.   By 0000 UTC on the 25th a well-defined, curved convective
  band had formed, indicating intensification beneath the CDO, and at
  0300 UTC the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Alika (Hawaiian
  for Alex).  Alika's center was then located approximately 500 nm south-
  southeast of Hilo with the MSW estimated at 40 kts.   The developing
  disturbance about 425 nm to the west-southwest was also showing signs
  of strengthening, and the discussion noted that Alika's development
  would likely be retarded due to the effects of this disturbance.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     Once having reached tropical storm intensity, Tropical Storm Alika
  intensified rather quickly due to a favorable environment which featured
  low vertical shear, warm SSTs, and an upper-level anticyclone.  The
  "fly in the ointment" was the large cyclonic vortex to the west-southwest
  which ultimately became Ele.     Dvorak numbers had reached a nearly
  unanimous 3.5 by 25/1200 UTC and Alika's MSW was upped to its peak of
  55 kts at 1500 UTC.  The storm was then centered roughly 400 nm south-
  southeast of South Point on the Big Island, moving west-northwestward
  at 9 kts.  However, six hours later Alika had noticeably weakened--the
  cloud structure had diminished and the tops had warmed considerably.
  The MSW was brought down to 50 kts and only slow weakening was forecast
  since most of the intensity models sustained the storm's current

     Alika maintained tropical storm intensity on 26 August but was in a
  weakening mode.  The disturbance to the southwest was upgraded to TD-02C
  at 0600 UTC and began to "steal the show" by competing with Alika for
  inflow.  Also, shear from an upper-level anticyclone to Alika's west had
  a deleterious effect on the cyclone.  The MSW had been reduced to 35 kts
  by 26/1800 UTC and continued weakening was forecast.  The 2100 UTC
  discussion noted that some thunderstorms had redeveloped over Alika
  during the night but were likely temporary and diurnal in nature.  Alika
  was downgraded to depression status at 27/0300 UTC when located about
  475 nm south-southwest of Honolulu.  The LLCC had become exposed and
  was outracing the convection.  (At the same time TC-02C to the southwest
  was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ele.)

     Alika continued to move toward the west-northwest and weaken over the
  next day or so.  Some deep convection would occasionally fire near the
  LLCC, but most was displaced well to the southeast of the center.  The
  MSW was lowered to 25 kts at 28/0000 UTC, and the final advisory on the
  dying cyclone was issued by CPHC at 0900 UTC.  A ship at 0600 UTC just
  north of the center reported winds of only 20 kts with a MSLP of
  1011.2 mb.   The center of the depression at that time was located
  approximately 35 nm east-southeast of Johnston Atoll, and at 0700 UTC
  the island reported sustained winds of 20 kts, gusting to 25 kts, with
  a surface pressure of 1011.5 mb.  The system was forecast to completely
  dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours.

  C. Damage and Casualties

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical Storm

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                         TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE
                          26 August - 1 September

  A. Storm Origins

     Genevieve formed hard on the heels of Fausto in the form of a
  convective burst that flared up southwest of the Bay of Tehuantepec on
  23 August.  The cyclonic disturbance changed little in organization over
  the following days.  Late on the 25th its organization improved markedly,
  however, and it was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine-E at 0300 UTC
  on 26 August when located roughly 420 nm southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
  The depression initially tracked westward under the influence of the same
  ridge that was steering Fausto.  

     Conditions were not ideal for Nine-E, neither at the upper-levels nor
  at the sea surface, where the cool wake of Fausto loomed.  The depression
  made an unusual track just south of west on the 26th and into the 27th,
  almost making it to tropical storm strength at 2100 UTC on the 26th
  before its convection weakened, continuing the stop-and-go organization
  pattern that had persisted from its pre-tropical cyclone stage.  Even so,
  the system had strengthened into Tropical Storm Genevieve by the time of
  the next advisory at 27/0300 UTC, being located about 620 nm southwest
  of Manzanillo.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     Its earlier difficulties aside, a TRMM pass at 1003 UTC on the 27th
  indicated a possible eyewall--an observation repeated in another 27/1547
  UTC SSM/I pass.  At 2100 UTC the MSW reached 60 kts, and the CP leveled
  off at 989 mb at 0300 UTC on 28 August when the cyclone was located
  approximately 710 nm west-southwest of Manzanillo.  Genevieve's track
  turned northwestward as it peaked due to a trough breaking down the
  subtropical ridge.  This same trough also induced unfavorable shear over
  the system.  Dvorak estimates pegged hurricane intensity throughout the
  28th and into the 29th, but the storm's ragged circulation led the
  forecasters to be conservative.  The shear steadily decreased from late
  on the 28th onward, but this was soon offset by cooler SSTs.

     Genevieve held its peak MSW for a respectable day-and-a-half before
  weakening on the 29th, due to both cooler SSTs and once-again
  increasingly hostile upper-level conditions.   The MSW dropped below
  35 kts early on the 30th with the cyclone located about 700 nm west-
  southwest of Cabo San Lucas.  Genevieve fired up new convection later
  that day, but it turned out to be a temporary sputter in the overall
  decline.  The depression turned more westward on the 31st as it became a
  low-level vortex--the final advisory was issued by TPC/NHC at 0900 UTC
  on 1 September with the center located approximately 960 nm west of Cabo
  San Lucas or about 650 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia.  The remnant
  vortex had completely dissipated by 4 September.

  C. Damage and Casualties
     No casualties or damages are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Genevieve.

  D. References



  (Report written by John Wallace)

                           HURRICANE/TYPHOON ELE
                            (TC-02C / TY 0217)
                         26 August - 10 September

  A. Storm Origins

     The Central North Pacific (CNP) on the average sees the genesis of
  about one named tropical cyclone per year.  However, they often seem to
  develop in pairs or clumps.  Even as Tropical Storm Alika, the first
  named tropical cyclone to form in the CNP in two years, was gathering
  strength southeast of Hawaii, another disturbance was taking shape to
  the southwest that was to become the second storm of the year.  The
  last pair of CNP storms were Upana and Wene in 2000; the pair prior to
  that were Oliwa and Paka in 1997.  Ele was the first CNP storm to form
  and reach hurricane intensity east of the Dateline and maintain that
  strength as it moved into the NWP basin since Hurricane/Typhoon Keoni
  of August, 1993.   Brief Hurricane Li of 1994 reached hurricane intensity
  just east of longitude 180, but had weakened prior to crossing the Date-
  line.   On the other hand, Oliwa and Paka of 1997 formed as tropical
  storms in the CNP but did not reach hurricane intensity east of the
  Dateline.  Both, however, became intense super typhoons in the Western
  North Pacific.

     On the afternoon of 24 August a Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
  the CPHC mentioned an area of disturbed weather located about 700 nm
  south of Honolulu, drifting slowly to the west.  Any development of the
  system was expected to be slow.   About this time, TD-01C about 435 nm
  to the east-northeast had just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Alika, and
  the 25/0300 UTC discussion on Alika noted that the two systems were
  likely to undergo some interaction.   The westernmost disturbance was
  not any better organized on the 25th as it moved westward at 9-13 kts.
  By afternoon the system was located about 700 nm south-southwest of
  Kona with Alika about 415 nm south of the same point.  The disturbance
  was perhaps becoming slightly better organized, but any further
  development was still forecast to be slow to occur.

     By 0900 UTC on 26 August the disturbance had become sufficiently
  organized to warrant classification as a tropical depression; hence,
  Tropical Depression 02C was born.  The initial advisory located the
  center approximately 525 nm southeast of Johnston Atoll.  The MSW was
  estimated at 25 kts and the depression was not forecast to intensify
  much over the next 24 hours due to its proximity to Tropical Storm
  Alika a few hundred miles to the east-northeast.   However, TD-02C
  with its very broad cyclonic surface circulation soon became the
  dominant system, helping to hasten Alika's demise.  As was the case
  with Alika, the first advisory did not call for intensification to
  tropical storm intensity during the 72-hour forecast period, but
  did so on the next forecast six hours later.  The MSW remained at 25 kts
  through 27/0300 UTC when it was bumped up to 30 kts.  TD-02C by that
  time appeared to be strengthening while Alika weakened--the cloud
  structure showed improved banding and convection.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     TD-02C was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ele at 0900 UTC on the 27th,
  located about 375 nm south of Johnston Atoll.  Spiral bands extended
  3/4 of the way around the center, and the system appeared to have a
  symmetrical circulation with uniform outflow in all directions,
  indicating that it lay beneath an anticyclone.  Ele was then moving
  westward at 12 kts with the MSW estimated at 40 kts.  (Alika had by
  this time weakened into a depression.)  After its upgrade to tropical
  storm intensity, Ele intensified rapidly to 60 kts, but then the
  intensification process somewhat leveled off.  The 27/1500 UTC discussion
  alluded to a TRMM pass which had revealed a precursor to an eye in a
  closed heavy rainband around the center.   By 28/0000 UTC Dvorak ratings
  had reached T4.0 so Ele was upgraded to a hurricane at 0300 UTC, located
  approximately 450 nm south-southwest of Johnston Atoll.   The storm
  continued moving westward at a rather low latitude and continued to
  slowly strengthen.  Winds were upped to 75 kts at 1200 UTC based on
  CI numbers of 4.5 from both SAB and the Honolulu Forecast Office (HFO).

     As Hurricane Ele approached the International Dateline its track
  became more northwesterly.  The intensity remained at 75 kts until
  0600 UTC on 29 August when it was upped to 90 kts based on CI estimates
  of 90 kts from SAB and HFO.   With SSTs of 30 C in the presence of
  minimal vertical shear, Ele continued to intensify.  By 29/1800 UTC
  Ele was nearing longitude 180 approximately 625 nm west-southwest of
  Johnston Atoll, moving northwestward at 7 kts.  The MSW was increased
  to 100 kts in the 2100 UTC advisory and to 115 kts in CPHC's final
  advisory on the storm at 30/0300 UTC.  The 0300 UTC discussion noted
  that Ele was undergoing a period of rapid intensification coincident
  with the re-emergence of an eye in visible imagery.  The final CPHC
  advisory placed Ele's center almost straddling the Dateline about 675 nm
  west-southwest of Johnston Atoll.   Ele was a large, severe hurricane
  with gales extending outward 150 nm from the center in all directions.
  Hurricane-force winds extended out 30 nm to the east and typhoon-force
  winds 30 nm to the west.

     The first JTWC warning on now-Typhoon Ele at 30/0600 UTC estimated the
  MSW at 105 kts.  This does not represent a weakening of the storm, but
  a disagreement between forecasters at CPHC and JTWC.  Even though the
  JTWC warning noted that CI estimates were 115 kts, the forecaster(s) who
  authored the 0600 UTC warning for some reason chose to be a little on
  the conservative side.  Ele's JTWC-reported intensity did eventually
  reach 115 kts, but not for another 24 hours.   The storm was centered
  about 930 nm south of Midway at 1200 UTC, tracking northwestward at
  8 kts.  The MSW remained at 105 kts--the JTWC warning stated that
  the intensity was based on CI estimates of 102 kts, even though SAB was
  estimating T6.0/6.0 at 1232 UTC.   The intensity was increased to the
  peak of 115 kts at 31/0600 UTC with Typhoon Ele then located
  approximately 830 nm west-southwest of Midway.  The storm had turned to
  a north-northwesterly track into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to
  the north.

     Typhoon Ele spent almost two weeks moving slowly northward in the
  Northwest Pacific basin, yet, its center never moved west of 165E.  The
  storm moved slowly north-northwestward through around 1200 UTC on the
  2nd, reaching a point about 500 nm southwest of Midway.  Ele then turned
  to a slow north-northeastward trek for a couple of days, reaching a
  position approximately 300 nm west-southwest of Midway.  As early as the
  3rd, the forecast called for the mid-level ridge to the northwest to
  build back towards the northeast, resulting in a resumption of Ele's
  northwestward track.  This in fact happened--after 04/1200 UTC the
  by-now weakening typhoon began to move northwestward, a motion which
  continued for several days.   Ele reached the westernmost point of its
  track at 1800 UTC on 8 September when it was located roughly 1000 nm
  west-northwest of Midway.  The storm by this time had weakened to minimal
  tropical storm intensity as it turned northeastward.  The final JTWC
  warning on Ele was for a 20-kt weakening depression at 10/1200 UTC,
  located approximately 1100 nm northwest of Midway Island.

     The peak intensity for Hurricane/Typhoon Ele of 115 kts was reached
  three times during its long lifespan:  at 0000 UTC on 30 August (per the
  CPHC advisory noted above), from 0600 UTC on 31 August through 0600 UTC
  on 1 September, and for one warning cycle at 03/0000 UTC.  Except for
  the 01/1800 UTC warning when the MSW was dropped to 95 kts, Ele's
  intensity remained at 100 kts or higher for 5.25 days.  The slight
  weakening on 1 September was apparently caused by some southwesterly
  shearing associated with a TUTT.  Satellite CI estimates at 01/1800 UTC
  were 90 and 102 kts, so it's possible the MSW for 1800 UTC might be
  re-adjusted to 100 kts in post-storm analysis.  Ele had weakened to
  minimal typhoon intensity by 05/0600 UTC, but the MSW was bumped back
  to 70 kts for a 24-hour period beginning at 06/0000 UTC.  As the storm
  moved into higher subtropical latitudes, shear increased and the storm
  began to weaken in earnest.  Ele was downgraded to a tropical storm at
  0600 UTC on 7 September and to a depression at 1800 UTC on the 9th when
  located approximately 1025 nm northwest of Midway.

     The maximum 10-min avg MSW estimated by JMA for Ele was 90 kts from
  02/0600 through 03/1800 UTC.  JMA's intensity was 85 kts or higher from
  1200 UTC on 30 August through 1200 UTC on 4 September.  NMCC's peak
  10-min avg MSW for the storm was 110 kts at 1200 UTC on 2 September.
  Their intensity estimate was 100 kts or greater from 02/0600 through
  04/1800 UTC.  The minimal central pressure estimated by JMA for the
  typhoon's history was 940 mb from 02/0600 through 03/1800 UTC.

  C. Damage and Casualties

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Hurricane/
  Typhoon Ele.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                            HURRICANE HERNAN
                        30 August - 6 September

  A. Storm Origins

     Hernan was the third and last member of a string of powerful
  hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific basin that began with Elida in July.
  Hernan was the second Category Five hurricane of 2002, the first time
  in five years that two have formed in a season.  "Cat Fives" are a rare
  beast even in the Northeast Pacific--Hernan was only the seventh to form
  since somewhat accurate intensity estimates began in 1971.
  Coincidentally, the same number of Category Five hurricanes occurred in
  the Atlantic during the same time period.  Only Ava of 1973 stood alone
  within a season--perhaps the formation of one "Cat Five" is an indication
  that at least one other will form later in the season.  However, the fact
  that six of the seven hurricanes have developed since the NHC took over
  warning responsibility in 1988 should give us pause; perhaps a future
  re-analysis project will show if other very intense hurricanes are lying
  unnoticed in the satellite data for this basin.

     (Editor's Note--For the record, the seven NEP Category 5 hurricanes
  alluded to above are: Ava (1973), Gilma (1994), John (1994), Guillermo
  (1997), Linda (1997), Elida (2002), and Hernan (2002).    Of course
  Hurricane Kenna has become the eighth.     The Atlantic "Cat Fives"
  referred to are Anita (1977), David (1979), Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988),
  Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992), and Mitch (1998).)

     The pre-Hernan disturbance formed rapidly on 30 August in the Pacific
  off the southwest coast of Mexico.  An almost shapeless convective mass
  at 0000 UTC, by 0900 UTC it was already organized enough to warrant its
  upgrade to Tropical Depression Ten-E about 275 nm southwest of Acapulco.
  The cyclone tracked west-northwestward, south of a mid-level ridge over
  Mexico--this track characterized the system for most of its life.

  B. Track and Intensity History
     Embedded in a highly favorable environment, the depression
  strengthened quickly into Tropical Storm Hernan at 1500 UTC on 30 August
  as it paralleled the Mexican coast.  Thereafter, Hernan's intensification
  was extremely rapid: a mere 18 hours after its christening, the cyclone
  had reached hurricane intensity (at 0900 UTC on 31 August).  Hurricane
  Hernan was then located approximately 265 nm south-southwest of
  Manzanillo, Mexico.  This intensification represented a pressure fall of
  roughly a millibar per hour after its upgrade.  Like many aggressively-
  intensifying tropical cyclones, however, Hernan's growth really took off
  only after it reached hurricane intensity.  Twelve hours after becoming
  a hurricane, Hernan's MSW broke 100 kts; less than a day later T-numbers
  peaked at 7.0, representing Hernan's peak MSW of 140 kts with an
  attendant central pressure estimated at 921 mb at 1500 UTC, 1 September.
  At this time Hernan was a large, spectacular hurricane located about
  75 nm south of Socorro Island--the strongest Eastern North Pacific
  hurricane since the legendary Hurricane Linda of 1997 (160 kts).

     From its upgrade to its peak intensity, Hernan's central pressure
  dropped an average of 1.73 mb per hour, just below the criteria for
  rapid deepening.  However, for a 12-hour period beginning at 2100 UTC on
  the 31st, extending to 0900 UTC on 1 September, the pressure fell an
  average of 2.58 mb per hour--well within the range for explosive

     Hernan maintained its peak intensity for 12 hours before a slow
  weakening trend began due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and late on
  the 2nd Hernan's winds dropped below 100 kts.  The following day, cooler
  SSTs made the eyewall cycle something of a moot point.  On the 4th an
  approaching trough broke down the ridge to Hernan's north, prompting a
  northwestward turn.  The trough also induced unfavorable shear over the
  system and Hernan weakened into a tropical storm, being downgraded at
  04/1500 UTC when located roughly 700 nm west-southwest of Cabo San
  Lucas.  By late on the 4th the system was a denuded swirl of low clouds
  with only sporadic convection.
     Hernan decelerated the following day and weakened to a depression,
  caught in a col between two ridges.   According to NHC discussions, the
  same trough that broke down the subtropical ridge failed to carry Hernan
  northward.  Upper-level conditions briefly became more favorable on the
  5th before shear once again eroded the remaining convection and decoupled
  the circulation.      The NHC issued the final advisory on Tropical
  Depression Hernan at 1500 UTC on 6 September, locating the weak center
  approximately 800 nm west of Cabo San Lucas.  The remnant vortex drifted
  westward and remained identifiable until the 9th.

  C. Damage and Casualties
     No casualties or damage are known to have resulted from Hurricane

  (Report written by John Wallace)


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for August:  1 tropical depression **
                        2 tropical storms ++
                        3 typhoons ##
                        1 super typhoon

  ** - system was classified as a tropical depression by JTWC only

  ++ - one of these was treated as two separate systems, both reaching
       tropical storm intensity, by JTWC

  ## - one of these formed east of longitude 180 and moved into the
       Northwest Pacific basin already at typhoon intensity

                         Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).  A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.

     A special thanks to Kevin Boyle of Stoke-on-Trent, UK, for all his
  assistance.  A large portion of all the summaries except for Typhoon
  Phanfone were written by Kevin.  Also, a big thanks to Huang Chunliang
  of Fuzhou City, China, (currently a student in Beijing) for sending
  very informative reports of meteorological observations as well as
  damage and casualty reports.  

               Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for August

     Following a very active July, tropical cyclone activity quietened down
  some in the Northwest Pacific basin during the early part of August, but
  things began to heat up around mid-month, and the latter half of the
  month was very active with four typhoons roaming Western Pacific waters.
  Two of these typhoons continued well into the month of September.   Two
  tropical storms, Kammuri and Vongfong, formed in the South China Sea
  and made landfall in southern China without reaching typhoon intensity.
  The final typhoon of the month, Ele, was a visitor from the Central North
  Pacific, crossing the International Dateline on 30 August already as an
  intense hurricane.   As a typhoon, Ele slowly wandered northward over
  waters in the eastern portion of the Northwest Pacific basin, lasting
  until the 10th of September.  Since the cyclone formed and attained
  significant intensity east of longitude 180, it will be covered in Part 3
  of the August summary along with other Northeast Pacific basin storms.

     The other three typhoons were remarkably similar in their areas of
  genesis and general tracks.   Phanfone became the sixth super typhoon of
  2002 per JTWC's nomenclature.   The storm passed only about 24 nm north
  of Iwo Jima as a super typhoon while moving on a fairly steady north-
  westerly course which took it to just south of Honshu.  There Phanfone
  executed an abrupt recurvature to the east-northeast and remained south
  of Japan.     Iwo Jima really became the focal point for the August
  typhoons--the centers of three passed less than 70 nm from the island.
  Phanfone's close approach was on 16 August.   On the 27th a somewhat
  weaker but still potent Typhoon Rusa passed about 64 nm south of the
  southwestern tip of the island.    Rusa eventually turned north and
  struck the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula where it became the
  deadliest and most destructive typhoon to affect that region in several

     Typhoon Sinlaku made its closest approach to Iwo Jima on 2 September
  when the center passed only about 29 nm south of the island's south-
  western tip.   It was still a strong typhoon, but the weakest of the
  three to brush Iwo Jima.  From there, Sinlaku maintained a generally
  westward track which took it over Okinawa and eventually into Fujian
  Province, China.   Both Rusa and Sinlaku in their latter stages developed
  large eyes--the signature of the so-called "annular" typhoon.   Such
  storms typically exhibit a very large eye surrounded by a usually
  symmetric ring of deep convection with little convection elsewhere.  They
  tend to maintain a fairly static intensity for days and usually weaken

     There was another tropical depression tracked during August, numbered
  TD-17W by JTWC.   The system was first noted on 3 August south-southeast
  of Tokyo as a very small circulation.  A visible satellite picture taken
  at 04/2330 UTC depictes a small round CDO-feature with a well-defined
  circulation center partially-exposed on the west-southwestern side.
  Mark Lander estimated the MSW at 30-35 kts based on Dvorak shear pattern
  analysis.   JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 0300 UTC on 5 August
  followed by the first warning on TD-17W at 0600 UTC.  The center was
  located by that time approximately 540 nm east of Tokyo, and JTWC esti-
  mated the MSW at only 25 kts.   Six hours later the depression was
  centered about 600 nm east of Tokyo, tracking eastward at 11 kts.  Since
  the system had not strengthened and was moving over cooler SSTs, JTWC
  did not issue any further warnings.

                           TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI
                        (TC-16W / STS 0212 / LAGALAG)
                                1 - 6 August

  Kammuri: contributed by Japan, means 'crown'

  Lagalag: Filipino name, is an adjective meaning 'wandering, or

  A. Storm Origins

     The pre-Kammuri disturbance was first noted in a STWO issued at 0000
  UTC, 2 August, as an area of convection which had persisted approximately
  270 nm west of Luzon in the South China Sea.  Animated enhanced infrared
  imagery indicated that the persistent convection was displaced to the
  west of a weak LLCC.  A 200-mb analysis revealed moderate vertical wind
  shear and upper-level diffluence over the area.    The development
  potential was considered poor, but was upgraded to fair in the STWO
  issued at 0200 UTC.   At 02/2137 UTC a QuikScat pass indicated multiple
  LLCCs in close proximity to each other to the west, north and northeast
  of Luzon.  Based on this, the LLCC was relocated eastward to a position
  approximately 140 nm west of Luzon.

     The STWO at 0600 UTC on 2 August indicated that a warning would be
  issued shortly based on synoptic reports, and the JTWC's first warning
  on Tropical Depression 16W was issued at this time.   (There was no TCFA
  for this system.)  The depression was tracking west-northwestward at
  7 kts at the time.  A SSM/I pass at 02/1027 UTC depicted deep convection
  surrounding the vortex, and a banding feature which extended over the
  south quadrant was also noted.  JMA released their first advisory at
  1800 UTC on 2 August, and NMCC and HKO followed at 0000 and 0600 UTC on
  3 August, respectively.   The system turned northward at 03/0000 UTC
  under the influence of a low to mid-level ridge over the East China Sea.
  TD-16W accelerated to 13 kts while turning back to the west at 1200 UTC
  as it became less influenced by the southwesterly monsoon flow.    The
  system was consolidating, as evidenced by animated infrared satellite
  imagery, although a 03/1216 UTC SSM/I pass showed that the LLCC was on
  the northern edge of the deep convection.  At 1800 UTC on 3 August,
  TD-16W was upgraded to a tropical storm by JTWC, HKO and JMA with the
  latter agency assigning the name Kammuri.  NMCC upgraded the system to
  tropical storm status six hours later.

    (Editor's Note:  The origins of Kammuri are a little uncertain.  There
  is some evidence it was related to a large monsoon gyre east of Luzon
  in late July/early August.   An area of convection had formed north-
  northwest of Guam on 27 July, and this area was mentioned for several
  days in JTWC's STWOs as it drifted westward.  By 30 July the convection
  was cycling around the periphery of a large circulation, or gyre, in
  the Philippine Sea.  The situation was still pretty much the same on
  the 31st with the deepest convection noted on the western periphery
  of the gyre.  On 1 August the gyre appeared to be consolidating with
  a banding feature possibly developing over the southern periphery.
  It was for the monsoon gyre circulation that PAGASA initiated warnings
  on Tropical Depression Lagalag at 0000 UTC on 1 August.  There were
  a couple of significant relocations over the next 24 hours.  An interim
  STWO issued by JTWC at 02/0000 UTC mentioned the precursor of Kammuri
  as a distinct area of convection, but it seems possible it was related
  to the gyre.  PAGASA's positions for Lagalag at 0600 and 1200 UTC on
  2 August were well east of JTWC's coordinates, but by the time of the
  final PAGASA warning at 1800 UTC, the two TCWC's center coordinates
  were in closer agreement.   The center of TD-16W/Lagalag had moved out
  of PAGASA's AOR by 03/0000 UTC so no more warnings were issued by that

  B. Track and Intensity History

     At 04/0000 UTC Tropical Storm Kammuri was located 85 nm south-
  southeast of Hong Kong, China, moving westward at 4 kts with the MSW
  estimated at 45 kts.  This was the peak intensity of the cyclone (per
  JTWC's warnings).   Upper-air analysis indicated that northeasterly
  shearing from an upper-level LOW was pushing the mid-level circulation
  southwest of the LLCC.   By 1200 UTC shearing had relaxed, allowing the
  mid-level circulation to return over the LLCC.  This allowed the deep
  convection to move over the LLCC, as evidenced by a 04/1201 UTC SSM/I
  pass.  A surge in the southwest monsoon was pushing Kammuri on an east-
  northeasterly heading by this time and the cyclone started to lift out
  of the monsoon trough.

     Gradually turning to a northward heading, Kammuri approached the
  Chinese coast, but on a weakening trend.  Kammuri made landfall with the
  MSW estimated at 35 kts (by JTWC) at 2200 UTC just east of Shanwei.  The
  storm began to accelerate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude
  low-pressure system and was downgraded to a tropical depression at 1200
  UTC, 5 August, as it moved farther inland.    (HKO issued their final
  bulletin at 0600 UTC).    The cyclone dissipated over the mountainous
  coastline of eastern China and its remnants linked up with a cold front.
  JTWC stopped issuing warnings at 05/1200 UTC and JMA did so at 1800 UT.
  The last agency to drop Kammuri was NMCC with the last warning issued
  at 1200 UTC on 6 August.

  (Editors Note:  The Asian TCWCs considered Kammuri a more intense
  system than did JTWC.  Both HKO and JMA were estimating the 10-min
  avg MSW at 50 kts at the time of landfall in China, and NMCC was even
  higher at 60 kts.  A 60-kt 10-min avg wind would equate to a 1-min
  avg MSW of about 70 kts.  Again, as noted above, the highest 1-min
  avg MSW for Kammuri reported by JTWC was 45 kts.)

  C. Meteorological Observations

     The rainfall reports below were sent by Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou
  City, Fujian Province, China.  A special thanks to Chunliang for
  compiling and sending the information.   Most of the amounts tabulated
  are 24-hour totals, and I have included only those exceeding 100 mm.
  Chunliang notes that the rainfall amounts (and damages) detailed below
  were not due to just Tropical Storm Kammuri alone.  The weakening
  storm merged with a frontal trough over Southern China, and it was the
  combination of Kammuri and the front which caused the heavy rains
  and the resulting damage and casualties to the region.

  (1) Rainfall Reports from the Meteorological Service of Fujian

     In Fujian Province, one county reported rainfall amounts that exceeded
  400 mm, six counties reported 300-400 mm, and 14 counties reported
  200-300 mm for the 3-day period of 03/0000--06/0000Z.

     05/0000--06/0000 UTC:

   Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
   ----------    ----------    -------------
   Quanzhou      Yongchun         284.3 **
   Quanzhou      Anxi             196
   Quanzhou      Dehua            190
   Quanzhou      Nan'an           189
   Zhangzhou     Yunxiao          185

   ** The highest daily amount in the history of the station.  (Another
   station named Hongwuyi, also located in Yongchun County, reported
   315 mm during the same period--the highest daily amount in the history
   of that station, too.)

     05/2100--06/2100 UTC:

   Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
   ----------    ----------    -------------
   Xiamen        Xiamen           237
   Fuzhou        Pingtan          155

     06/0000--07/0000 UTC:

   Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
   ----------    ----------    -------------
   Fuzhou        Fuqing           288
   Xiamen        Xiamen           241
   Zhangzhou     Zhangpu          219
   Xiamen        Tong'an          203

  (2) Rainfall Reports from the Meteorological Service of Guangdong

     02/0000--03/0000 UTC:  No amounts exceeding 100 mm

     03/0000--04/0000 UTC:  No amounts exceeding 100 mm

     04/0000--05/0000 UTC:

   Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
   ----------    ----------    -------------

   Maoming       Dianbai          140.2

     05/0000--06/0000Z UTC:

   Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
   ----------    ----------    -------------
   Shaoguan      Xinfeng          106.9
   Heyuan        Longchuan        105.1
   Jieyang       Jiexi            110.2
   Jiangmen      Taishan          123.8
   Yunfu         Yu'nan           105.0

     06/0000--07/0000Z UTC:

   Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
   ----------    ----------    -------------

   Shanwei       Shanwei          109.0
   Shanwei       Haifeng          148.4
   Jieyang       Jieyang          275.1
   Jieyang       Huilai           120.6
   Jieyang       Puning           235.1
   Jieyang       Jiexi            116.2
   Shantou       Shantou          118.7
   Shantou       Chenghai         136.0
   Chaozhou      Chaozhou         189.1
   Chaozhou      Raoping          258.2

     07/0000--08/0000 UTC:

   Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
   ----------    ----------    -------------

   Qingyuan      Lianzhou         103.8

  (3) Rainfall Reports from the Meteorological Services of Guangxi, 
      Hunan & Jiangxi
     05/0000--06/0000 UTC:

          Tengxian,   Guangxi  129  mm
          Cangwu,     Guangxi  129  mm
          Wuzhou,     Guangxi  118  mm

     05/2100--06/2100 UTC:

          Shuangfeng, Hunan    102  mm

     06/0000--07/0000 UTC:

          Lushan,     Jiangxi  147  mm

     07/0000--08/0000 UTC:

          Yongxin,    Jiangxi  146  mm
          Jishui,     Jiangxi  134  mm
          Yugan,      Jiangxi  115  mm
          Zhongshan,  Guangxi  118  mm

  (4) Rainfall Reports from the Meteorological Service of Taiwan

     03/1600--04/1900 UTC:

   TA-CHI-S, TAITUNG COUNTY          213 mm
   TA TU, PINGTUNG COUNTY            127 mm
   NANSHIH, MIAOLI COUNTY            103 mm

     05/1600--05/1900 UTC (3 hrs):

   HSIN WEI, PINGTUNG COUNTY          77 mm

     05/1600--06/1900 UTC:

   TUNG HO, TAITUNG COUNTY           325 mm
   KUAN SHAN, TAINAN COUNTY          172 mm
   HSIN WEI, PINGTUNG COUNTY         156 mm
   TSAOLING, CHIAYI COUNTY           148 mm

   Note:  CHENG KUNG, Taiwan, recorded a daily amount of 591 mm on 
          5 August (local time)--a new record for the station.

   (5) Wind Reports

      In Fujian Province, Xiamen City reported a daily peak wind of
   41.4 kts at 05/1954 UTC.  (It was not stated if this was a peak
   sustained wind or gust.)  On 6 August Putian City (south of Fuzhou)
   reported a gust of 42.8 kts.

      Several ships reported winds exceeding 40 kts.  The highest
   wind given in Chunliang's report was west-southwesterly 49 kts
   (presumably a 10-min avg) from ship OOCL FRANCE (call sign PGNE)
   at 0600 UTC on 4 August, located near 20.1N, 113.9E.  This equates
   to a 1-min mean wind of about 56 kts, and if reliable, would tend
   to suggest that Kammuri was slightly stronger than any of the TCWCs
   were reporting at that point in time.

   D. Damage and Casualties
     A total of 107 deaths occurred as a result of Kammuri's passage.
  However, most of the damage and casualties in southern China were
  attributed to the rain-induced flooding caused by the combination of
  a cold front and the remnants of the tropical cyclone.

     Flood damage destroyed crops, bridges, tunnels and power lines.
  Press reports indicate that at least 13 people were killed when
  Tropical Storm Kammuri moved inland across the southern Chinese
  province of Guangdong late on 4 August.  The storm, accompanied by
  torrential rains, ripped through the coastal cities of Shanwei,
  Shantou and Lufeng in the eastern part of Guangdong Province, causing
  extensive damage.  A great deal of crop land was flooded, and many 
  bridges, tunnels and power lines were destroyed.  Water and electricity 
  supplies in some of the storm-hit areas were also cut off.

     In Wuhua County alone, 10 farmers were killed when they were swallowed
  by a massive landslide.  In Shantou, two people were electrocuted when
  they were repairing power facilities amid heavy rain.

     Shantou International Airport was closed for more than four hours, 
  with 10 domestic and international flights cancelled or delayed.
  Eight scheduled flights were delayed at the Guangzhou Baiyun Inter-
  national Airport, while another nine arrival flights had to be diverted
  to other airports near Guangzhou.

     Torrential rains caused 28 deaths in Guangdong while four deaths were
  reported in Quanzhou.     In Hunan Province the death toll reached
  75 persons.

  (1) Fuzhou Area:

     At 06/0306 UTC the peak of flooding passed Chengguan, Yongtai County,
  where the Dazhang Stream rose to a level of 34.62 m--the warning and
  danger levels there are 31 m and 34 m, respectively. 

     Pingtan County recorded rains of 104 mm during the 6-hr period ending
  at 06/1200 UTC--a rare occurrence.

     According to the preliminary statistics provided by Fuzhou Flood
  Prevention Headquarters, some 599,900 residents were affected by the
  flooding brought by the torrential rain in the Fuzhou area.  Direct
  economic losses are estimated to have been approximately 425 million

  (2) Quanzhou Area:

     As of 07/1200 UTC some 372,100 residents were affected by the
  flooding.  Four persons died with three missing in the Quanzhou area.
  The direct economic losses there are estimated at 552,680,000 yuan (the
  number rose to 660 million several days later).  The number of collapsed
  houses was put at 7,782.

  (3) Guangdong Province:

     Statistics (13 August) indicated that 3,317,000 residents were
  affected by the torrential rains.  Twenty-eight persons died and 6,810
  houses collapsed.     Direct economic losses there are estimated at
  904 million yuan.

  (4) Hunan Province:

     Statistics (12 August) indicated that 3,900,000 residents were
  affected by the severe flooding.  Seventy-five persons died while 12,400
  houses collapsed, making over 10,000 persons homeless.  Direct economic
  losses there are estimated at 2.665 billion yuan.

     Also, in Jiangxi Province some 526,500 residents were adversely
  affected by the storm.

     The Hong Kong Observatory website has a comprehensive report on
  Tropical Storm Kammuri available.  The URL is:>

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle and Gary Padgett with significant
  contributions by Huang Chunliang)

                          TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG
                    (TC-18W & 20W / TS 0214 / MILENYO)
                              10 - 20 August

  Vongfong: contributed by Macau, is the Macanese word for 'wasp',
            a winged insect with black and yellow stripes which
            delivers a painful sting

  Milenyo: PAGASA name, is a Tagalog word for 'millennium'

  (Editor's Note:  As is obvious from the header above, this system was
  treated as two distinct tropical cyclones by JTWC.  However, even the
  STWOs following the demise of TC-18W indicate that TC-20W's develop-
  ment was related to the remnants of TC-18W.  Also, JMA, NMCC, CWBT,
  the Guangdong Regional Meteorological Centre, and the Thai Meteor-
  ological Department considered Vongfong (TC-20W) to be a redevelop-
  ment of TC-18W (named Milenyo by PAGASA).  In addition, Dr. Mark Lander
  of the University of Guam rendered his opinion that TC-20W was a
  redevelopment of TC-18W, and expressed his surprise that JTWC assigned
  a new number.   Because of the weight of all the above evidence, I
  decided to treat this system as one tropical cyclone, as was done in
  the companion cyclone tracks file dispatched earlier.)

  A. Tropical Storm 18W (Milenyo)

     A STWO was issued by JTWC at 0700 UTC, 8 August, for a new area of
  convection that had developed approximately 130 nm west-northwest of
  the Republic of Palau.  Animated multispectral imagery indicated that
  a weak, exposed, LLCC was present within the monsoon trough.  A TRMM
  pass at 0413 UTC indicated only cycling deep convection near the LLCC.
  The 0000 UTC surface analysis depicted a westerly wind burst south
  of the LLCC, while an upper-level analysis showed good outflow aloft
  with moderate vertical wind shear.  The development was given a fair
  potential due to the strength of the westerly wind burst and the LLCC.
  However, the development potential was downgraded to poor on the next
  STWO issued at 0600 UTC, 9 August.  Animated multispectral imagery
  revealed only a weak, broad circulation in the monsoon trough, and a
  09/0051 UTC SSM/I pass had depicted only weak convection.  Another
  negative factor for intensification was the increasing vertical shear.

     The next STWO at 10/0100 UTC, however, upgraded the development
  potential to fair based on increasing convection seen in infrared
  imagery.     While earlier visible imagery had revealed a weak,
  broad LLCC, the circulation was now believed to extend to mid-levels.
  Surface analyses indicated that the westerly wind burst continued to
  the south of the system.   JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 10/1400
  UTC--enhanced infrared imagery indicated a partially-exposed LLCC with
  deep convection located to the northwest of the centre.  Outflow aloft
  was good with favourable wind shear conditions over the region while
  surface convergence caused an increase in wind speeds to the west of the
  LLCC.  Warning #1 on Tropical Depression 18W was issued by JTWC at 1800
  UTC on 10 August, and by PAGASA and JMA at 11/0000 UTC.     (Initial
  positions were:  JTWC - 10.0N 131.0E, PAGASA - 10.4N 130.5E, and
  JMA - 10.5N 130.5E).    At this time PAGASA named the system Tropical
  Depression Milenyo.

     The depression was slowly drifting south-southeastward at 4 kts at
  this time.  A TRMM pass at 10/1710 UTC revealed that the LLCC was
  decoupled east of the mid-level vortex.  A surface analysis showed that
  TD-18W/Milenyo was still part of the monsoon trough, and animated water
  vapour imagery and an upper-level analysis indicated point diffluence
  with enhanced outflow due to an upper-level cyclone centred near 22.0N,
  137.5E.   The system was quasi-stationary at 0000 UTC, 11 August, but
  soon began moving to the northwest with slow intensification.  Convection
  tended to decrease and by 1200 UTC was still sheared to the west of the
  LLCC.   TD-18W was upgraded to tropical storm status at 1200 UTC on
  12 August based on satellite CI estimates of 35 kts and an increase in
  convection.  (TS-18W was not assigned an international name because
  JMA's 10-min avg MSW remained at 30 kts.)   PAGASA's peak 10-min avg MSW
  also was 30 kts--even though PAGASA applied a name to the depression,
  they did not upgrade it to tropical storm strength.

     At 0000 UTC on 13 August the fully-exposed LLCC of TS-18W/Milenyo was
  moving northwestward at 9 kts.  The cyclone was then centred roughly
  190 nm east-southeast of Manila.   The system accelerated in a more
  westerly direction on 13 August, and after being downgraded to a tropical
  depression (by JTWC) at 0000 UTC, made landfall on Luzon at 1200 UTC.
  JTWC issued the final advisory on TD-18W at this time with the MSW esti-
  mated at 25 kts.  The final position was fixed at 14.8N 120.9E.  PAGASA
  dissipated Tropical Depression Milenyo at 14/0000 UTC near 15.0N 115.0E
  with the final advisory being issued.   The depression moved westward
  at 15 kts off the coast of Luzon into the South China Sea and had
  decelerated to a standstill by 1200 UT.  JMA was the only agency issuing
  warnings on the system at this time, and they issued their final bulletin
  at 14/1200 UTC.

  B. Tropical Storm Vongfong (TC-20W)

     JTWC continued to issue STWOs covering the remnants of former TC-18W,
  and at 0600 UTC, 15 August, a fair potential for redevelopment was
  assigned.  At the same time JMA re-initiated bulletins on the system,
  placing the centre near 13.5N, 113.6E.  In addition, HKO started issuing
  bulletins on the depression at 1800 UTC.  JTWC followed the STWO with a
  TCFA at 15/0851 UTC, placing the centre of the disturbance approximately
  540 nm south of Hong Kong.  The system exhibited an exposed LLCC with
  strong winds to the south enhanced by a westerly wind burst.  A 200-mb
  analysis depicted good diffluence aloft with weak to moderate vertical
  wind shear.  The first warning on Tropical Depression 20W was issued at
  1200 UTC with the centre located at 13.4N, 113.4E.  The depression was
  moving northeastward at 4 kts at this time, but had slowly turned to
  the north by 16/1200 UTC as it once again decelerated to a slow crawl.
  Most of the deep convection was being displaced to the southwest of the
  exposed LLCC.  A surge in the southwest monsoon gave TD-20W an extra
  boost with a subsequent increase in convection in the southwestern
  quadrant.  The surge caused the track of the tropical cyclone to describe
  a loop near 15N, 113E, before beginning to drift towards the north-
  northwest around 0000 UTC on 18 August.  (NMCC had begun issuing warnings
  on the depression at 17/0000 UTC since it had become a potential threat
  to southern China.)

     The system at this time was consolidating, aided by the monsoon surge.
  This allowed the LLCC to become less-exposed and at 0000 UTC, 18 August,
  TD-20W was upgraded to tropical storm status.  JMA also upgraded at the
  same time and assigned the name Vongfong.  (NMCC had upgraded the system
  to tropical storm status at 17/1200 UTC and HKO had done so at 1800 UTC.)
  Tropical Storm Vongfong, located 260 nm southwest of Hong Kong, began a
  northward drift in response to a low to mid-level high-pressure ridge
  building over the South China Sea and southeastern China.  The storm
  continued to develop in a weaker shear environment with new convection
  forming over the LLCC.  Vongfong reached a peak intensity of 55 kts
  shortly before moving inland, pushed on a north-northwesterly path by
  building pressures to the east.  (NMCC's and HKO's peak 10-min avg MSW
  estimates were 60 kts and 50 kts, respectively, while JMA was lowest at
  40 kts.)  Severe Tropical Storm Vongfong made landfall near Wuchuan,
  Zhanjiang City in Guangdong Province at approximately 1240 UTC on
  19 August.  Vongfong weakened rapidly as it moved north-northwestward
  at 13 kts over China and was downgraded to a depression at 20/0000 UTC.
  The last warning was issued at this time by JTWC and NMCC.  (JMA had
  released their final bulletin at 19/2100 UTC.)

  C. Meteorological Observations

     Huang Chunliang has sent me many observations and reports from
  southern China.  Some of the highlights are summarized below.  (A
  special thanks to Chuliang for sending the information.)

  (1) Rainfall Reports from Guangdong Province

     The following rainfall totals are 24-hour totals recorded between
  19/0000 and 20/0000 UTC.  Only amounts exceeding 100 mm are listed.

     Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
     ----------    ----------    -------------
     Maoming       Huazhou         144.9
     Maoming       Dianbai         105.8
     Zhanjiang     Zhanjiang       211.0
     Zhanjiang     Wuchuan         126.6
     Zhanjiang     Suixi           201.3
     Zhanjiang     Lianjiang       211.0
     Zhanjiang     Leizhou         132.6
     Zhanjiang     Xuwen           112.3

     During the 24 hours ending at 21/0000 UTC, only one station recorded
  more than 50 mm:

     Cities        Stations      Rainfall (mm)
     ----------    ----------    -------------
     Zhongshan     Zhongshan        90.9

     Following are some rainfall amounts recorded at the Zhanjiang
  Meteorology School for various time periods on 19 August (only amounts
  greater than 200 mm are given):

     Periods                     Rainfall Observations
     --------------------        ---------------------
     19/0000--19/1200 UTC             202.6 mm
     19/0000--19/1300 UTC             221.1 mm
     19/0000--19/1400 UTC             221.8 mm
     19/0000--19/1700 UTC             222.6 mm

  (2) Rainfall Reports from Hainan Province

     The following rainfall amounts represent 36-hour totals recorded
  between 18/0000 and 19/1200 UTC:

     City               Rainfall
     ---------          --------
     Haikou             234.8 mm **
     Wenchang           197.0 mm
     Qionghai           106.5 mm
     Chengmai           110.0 mm
     Ding'an            105.7 mm
     Tunchang           110.8 mm
     Qiongshan          209.9 mm

     ** - Haikou (WMO 59758) recorded a 3-day total of 240 mm on
          17-19 August

  (3) Wind Observations from Guangdong Province

     The information from Chunliang did not explicitly state if these
  are sustained or peak gust measurements.    Based on some other
  statements, however, I believe that they represent peak gusts.  (Only
  those exceeding Beaufort Force 10 are given.)

  Time           Automatic Weather Stations                   Wind (kts)
  -----------    -----------------------------------------    ----------
  19/0900 UTC    Met. Village, Hailing Is., Yangjiang City       57
  19/1000 UTC    Genzi Town, Gaozhou City                        55
  19/1200 UTC    Genzi Town, Gaozhou City                        65
  19/1300 UTC    Genzi Town, Gaozhou City                        70
  19/1400 UTC    Genzi Town, Gaozhou City                        62
  19/1100 UTC    Zhanjiang                                       56
  19/1200 UTC    Zhanjiang                                       58
  19/1300 UTC    Zhanjiang                                       60
  19/1100 UTC    Jizhao Town, Wuchuan City                       57
  19/1200 UTC    Jizhao Town, Wuchuan City                       67
  19/1300 UTC    Jizhao Town, Wuchuan City                       66
  19/1200 UTC    Wuchuan, Zhanjiang City                         66
  19/1300 UTC    Wuchuan, Zhanjiang City                         56
  19/1200 UTC    Dianbai, Maoming City                           58
  19/1300 UTC    Dianbai, Maoming City                           56
  19/1200 UTC    Zhanjiang Meteorology School                    56
  19/1300 UTC    Zhanjiang Meteorology School                    53
  19/1400 UTC    Zhanjiang Meteorology School                    51
  19/1500 UTC    Gaozhou, Maoming City                           62
  20/0000 UTC    Gaozhou, Maoming City                           62
  20/0000 UTC    Liantang, Shenzhen City                         52

  (4) Miscellaneous Observations

     (a) Hechi (WMO 59023) in Guangxi Autonomous Region recorded
         120 mm of rain for a 3-day total on 17-19 August.

     (b) Hong Kong (WMO 45007) recorded 81 mm of rain for a 3-day
         total on 17-19 August.

     (c) In Bobai County in Guangxi Autonomous Region, 124 mm of rain
         fell in a 9-hour period ending at 19/2100 UTC.

     (d) Lushan County, Guangxi Autonomous Region, reported a peak
         wind gust of 62 kts at 19/1603 UTC.

  (5) An Additional Wind Observation

     Another wind observation was obtained from near the center of
  Vongfong by a new advanced instrument which was installed on the top
  of a three-floor villa (height unknown) in a small town named Jizhaowan
  in the Wuchuan district of Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province.  The
  center of the cyclone passed around 19/1240 UTC, but 90 minutes earlier
  at 1110 UTC, a peak wind (presumably a gust) of 78 kts was recorded.
  It was on the basis of this measurement that NMCC increased the 10-min
  avg MSW for Vongfong to 60 kts on the 1200 UTC warning.  This wind
  observation, if accurate, would suggest that Vongfong was very near
  typhoon strength at landfall.

  D. Damage and Casualties

     According to a preliminary survey, some 1,163,000 residents in
  Zhanjiang City were affected by Vongfong with 4173 houses destroyed
  and 12,468 partially damaged.  Direct economic losses were estimated
  at 280 million yuan.  In Maoming City 236,500 residents were affected
  by the storm with 956 houses collapsed.   Direct economic losses were
  estimated at 71.8 million yuan.   Later statistics indicated that
  1,625,500 residents in Guangdong Province were affected by the tropical
  cyclone with 5600 houses destroyed.  Total direct economic losses in
  the province were estimated at 381.7 million yuan.  No casualties were

     In Hainan Province, 2145 trees were felled by Vongfong in Haikou
  City, the provincial capital.  The storm left more than 250 tons of
  rubbish for the city to clear away.  Economic losses were estimated
  at 3.78 million yuan in Haikou.  Fortunately, no casualties were

     In the Guangxi Region, 20 counties/cities recorded rains in excess
  of 100 mm during the 48-hour period ending at 20/0000 UTC.    The
  torrential rains and associated landslides were responsible for 12
  deaths with another 25 injured.  About 400 houses were destroyed in
  this region.

     In its first incarnation as Tropical Depression Milenyo (18W), the
  system dropped heavy rains in the Philippines which led to flooding
  and landslides.   Hardest hit regions were Negros Occidental, Biliran
  Island, and Laguna.  The death toll was placed at 15 persons with
  four missing and two injured.  The number of families affected was
  estimated at 1930, or 9611 persons.  Monetary estimates of the damage
  are not currently available.   Some pictures of the flooding caused
  by the depression near Naga City may be found at the following URL:>

     The Hong Kong Observatory website has a comprehensive report on
  Tropical Storm Vongfong available.  The URL is:>

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by
  Huang Chunliang)

                          SUPER TYPHOON PHANFONE
                            (TC-19W / TY 0213)
                              11 - 24 August

  Phanfone: contributed by Laos, means 'animal'

  A. Storm Origins

     The sixth super typhoon of the year in the Northwest Pacific had its
  beginnings on 6 August in an area of convection which developed about
  90 nm south of Kwajalein Atoll.  A special STWO issued by JTWC at 2000
  UTC noted that animated infrared imagery revealed cycling deep convection
  associated with a region of low-level turning, while surface synoptic
  reports had indicated significant pressure falls as the disturbance
  tracked through the Marshall Islands.  A 200-mb analysis indicated weak
  to moderate vertical shear in the southwestern quadrant of an upper-level
  ridge.  By the 7th, however, the focus of interest had shifted eastward
  to a point approximately 420 nm east of Kwajalein.  Unfortunately, I am
  missing the STWO for 0600 UTC on 8 August, but on the 9th a disturbance
  was located approximately 140 nm southeast of Kwajalein.  I feel fairly
  certain this is the same system first noted on the 6th.

     The disturbance lay within an extension of the monsoon trough
  extending from Kosrae toward the Marshall Islands.  A 200-mb analysis
  indicated good poleward outflow due to an upper-level LOW northeast of
  the disturbance as well as good equatorward outflow.  The development
  potential was upgraded to fair based on the good outflow and the
  approach of a westerly wind burst to the area.  On the 10th the system
  was relocated westward to a position approximately 300 nm west of
  Kwajalein.   A weak LLCC with cycling deep convection was evident, and
  with a westerly wind burst approaching, the development potential was
  upgraded to good and a TCFA issued at 0700 UTC.

     By 0000 UTC on 11 August visible imagery and a SSM/I pass revealed
  low-level banding and a well-organized mid-level vortex, so JTWC
  initiated warnings on Tropical Depression 19W.  The center was located
  approximately 230 nm north-northeast of Pohnpei with an initial warning
  intensity of 25 kts.  TD-19W was moving west-northwestward at 7 kts, and
  this motion was expected to continue as the system was guided by a low
  to mid-level ridge to the north.  By 1800 UTC satellite CI estimates had
  risen to 35 kts and a 11/1443 UTC TRMM pass revealed well-developed
  banding, so the depression was upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm,
  located about 200 nm north-northwest of Pohnpei.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     Both JMA and NMCC upgraded the system to tropical storm status at
  0000 UTC on the 12th with JMA assigning the name Phanfone.  The storm
  gradually strengthened during the day with the MSW reaching 55 kts at
  1200 UTC.  Phanfone was still embedded in the monsoon trough with strong
  equatorial westerlies to the south.  The cyclone's track took a north-
  northwesterly turn on the 12th, likely due to a weakening of the ridge to
  the north.  At 1800 UTC Phanfone was centered approximately 340 nm north
  of Pohnpei, tracking northwestward at 6 kts.  The system exhibited good
  poleward and equatorward outflow, and appeared to be consolidating with
  tightly-curved bands forming during the previous few hours.  By 0600 UTC
  on 13 August Tropical Storm Phanfone had reached a position about 670 nm
  east-northeast of Guam and was moving north-northwestward rather quickly
  at 17 kts.   Based on CI estimates of 55 and 65 kts, JTWC upgraded the
  storm to typhoon status, but animated water vapor imagery indicated that
  deep convection was being sheared from the northwest as an upper-level
  LOW to the north-northwest propagated westward.  On the other hand, pole-
  ward outflow was being enhanced by an upper-level trough to the east-
  northeast.  A 13/1429 UTC TRMM pass revealed the development of a banding
  eye feature, so the MSW was upped to 75 kts at 1800 UTC.  Phanfone was
  then located approximately 560 nm east-northeast of Guam.   The storm's
  motion had become more northwesterly as a mid to high-level ridge built
  to the north.

     A 13/2333 UTC SSM/I pass showed an improving banding eye feature on
  the northern side of the LLCC.   At 1400 UTC both JMA and NMCC upgraded
  Phanfone to typhoon status.   A shortwave trough east of the system and
  a near-equatorial ridge to the south continued to enhance outflow and
  Phanfone slowly strengthened.   By 1800 UTC JTWC had upped the MSW to
  90 kts with the typhoon located approximately 475 nm southeast of Iwo
  Jima.     A 14/1510 UTC TRMM pass had depicted a banding eye with the
  deep convection on the northeastern side wrapping into the LLCC.  The
  northwestward track continued as the ridge to the north held strong.
  Phanfone continued to strengthen as the 15th progressed, reaching 120 kts
  by 1200 UTC when the typhoon was centered about 220 nm east-southeast of
  Iwo Jima.  The eye diameter had shrunk from 21 nm at 15/0000 UTC to
  10 nm at 1200 UTC.  Satellite CI estimates had reached 127 and 140 kts
  by 1800 UTC and Phanfone was upgraded to a 135-kt super typhoon--the
  sixth of the year--at that hour.   The eye diameter had expanded to
  30 nm and gales reached outward well over 200 nm in all quadrants except
  the southwest, reaching 250 nm in the southeastern quadrant.   Super
  Typhoon Phanfone was then centered about 120 nm east-southeast of Iwo
  Jima, moving northwestward at 16 kts.  The MSW of 135 kts represents the
  peak intensity estimated by JTWC for Phanfone.  JMA's and NMCC's 10-min
  avg MSW estimates had reached their respective peaks of 85 kts and
  100 kts at 1200 UTC.  The minimum CP estimated by JMA was 940 mb at
  16/0600 UTC.

     A slow weakening trend began on 16 August.  The MSW was reduced to
  130 kts at 0000 UTC, and by 0600 UTC SSM/I and visible imagery revealed
  a 15-nm irregular eye and rapidly weakening deep convection.  (CI esti-
  mates, however, were still 127 and 140 kts.)   The storm at this time
  was centered about 40 nm north-northwest of Iwo Jima, having passed
  only about 24 nm north of the island's northern tip around 0400 UTC.
  The northwestward motion had slowed to around 10-12 kts, although some
  wobbling of the eye resulted in a slightly more westward track for
  awhile.  Super typhoon status was maintained through the 1200 UTC
  warning, but the MSW was reduced to 120 kts at 1800 UTC with Phanfone
  centered approximately 530 nm south of Tokyo.  The observed weakening
  likely resulted from two causes:  a dissipating poleward outflow channel
  and an eyewall replacement cycle.  The latter was noted in the 1200 UTC
  warning and was nearing completion by 1800 UTC.  The remarks in the 1800
  UTC warning noted that a short-term intensification might ensue, but this
  apparently did not materialize.

     Typhoon Phanfone continued to trek northwestward on 17 August at
  around 10-12 kts, turning more to the north-northwest by around 1200 UTC.
  The MSW was reduced to 115 kts at 17/0000 UTC and remained there for
  18 hours.  The eyewall replacement cycle observed on the previous day
  did not result in any intensification of the storm, but perhaps helped
  to slow the weakening process a bit.  The remarks in the 0000 UTC warning
  noted that the replacement eyewall's intensity had been improving over
  the past few hours, and the 0600 UTC warning remarked that the inner
  eyewall had collapsed.   A 17/1042 UTC SSM/I pass depicted an eye 40 nm
  in diameter, and CI estimates ranged from 90 to 127 kts.  At 1800 UTC
  JTWC lowered the MSW to 110 kts, and the intensity was reduced by 5 or
  10 kts on just about every subsequent warning.  The storm at that hour
  was located approximately 340 nm south-southwest of Tokyo, moving north-
  northwestward at 10 kts.

     A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the typhoon had
  appeared by the 18th, and Phanfone's forward motion slowed as it
  approached the ridge axis.  The storm underwent a very abrupt recurvature
  on the 18th--at 0600 UTC it was moving north-northwestward at 4 kts, but
  by 1200 UTC was tracking northeastward at 6 kts.  The intensity fell from
  105 kts at 0000 UTC to 90 kts at 1800 UTC, based on CI estimates of 77,
  90 and 102 kts at the latter hour.  Convection began to weaken as dry air
  was entrained into the storm.     By 1800 UTC the eyewall had almost
  completely eroded in the southwestern quadrant.  Typhoon Phanfone was
  then located roughly 255 nm south-southwest of Tokyo, moving east-
  northeastward at 7 kts.   At 0000 UTC on 19 August JTWC judged Phanfone
  to have begun extratropical transition.  The MSW continued to drop and
  by 1200 UTC the once-powerful super typhoon was reduced to minimal
  typhoon intensity about 160 nm south-southeast of Tokyo.  A SSM/I pass 
  at 19/1115 UTC depicted all the deep convection displaced north of the
  center with no convection in the southern semicircle.

     JTWC downgraded Phanfone to a 55-kt tropical storm at 1800 UTC when
  located approximately 200 nm southeast of Tokyo.  JMA and NMCC also
  downgraded the cyclone to tropical storm status at the same time.  The
  storm was moving east-northeastward along the northwestern periphery of
  the subtropical ridge and was continuing to merge with the mid-latitude
  westerlies.  By 0600 UTC on the 20th Phanfone was located about 440 nm
  east of Tokyo and was racing east-northeastward at 33 kts.   JTWC
  declared the system extratropical and issued their final warning with
  the MSW estimated at 50 kts.   NMCC and JMA continued to classify
  Phanfone as a tropical cyclone through 20/1800 UTC.  JMA declared the
  system extratropical at 21/0000 UTC when it was located roughly 750 nm
  northeast of Tokyo, well east of Hokkaido.  The system continued moving
  generally northeastward as a slowly weakening extratropical gale,
  reaching a position near the southwestern Aleutian Islands by 24/1200
  UTC when it was last referenced by JMA.

  C. Meteorological Observations

     The center of Super Typhoon Phanfone's eye passed about 24 nm north
  of Iwo Jima's northern tip around 0400 UTC on 16 August (according to
  my calculations based on JTWC's coordinates).  Roger Edson sent me some
  observations from the island as Phanfone passed by.  Sustained winds
  (10-min avg) exceeded gale force from 15/2100 UTC through at least
  16/0900 UTC.   Data was missing at 1000 and 1100 UTC--at 16/1200 UTC
  the wind was 31 kts from the south-southwest.  At 15/2225 UTC the
  wind was northerly 43 kts, gusting to 68 kts, and continued to increase
  thereafter to the peak of 57 kts at 16/0100 UTC, accompanied by gusts
  to 89 kts.  However, the peak gust (at least near the time of the hourly
  observations) was 91 kts at 16/0000 UTC.    At 0500 UTC the wind was
  southwesterly 56 kts, gusting to 76 kts.   The minimum SLP was 956 mb
  at 16/0100 UTC.      (A special thanks to Roger for sending me the

  D. Damage and Casualties

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Super Typhoon
  Phanfone have been received.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                               TYPHOON RUSA
                            (TC-21W / TY 0215)
                         22 August - 1 September

  Rusa: contributed by Malaysia, is a type of samber deer most commonly
        seen in secondary forests on gently sloping terrain

  A. Storm Origins

     Typhoon Rusa was a classic "straight-shooter" typhoon, one which main-
  tains a very straight trajectory for several days.  In its latter stages
  the storm became the most destructive and deadly typhoon to strike the
  Korean Peninsula in many decades.   The regular STWO issued by JTWC at
  0600 UTC on 19 August mentioned that an area of convection had formed
  approximately 300 nm east-southeast of Pohnpei.  Cycling deep convection
  was associated with a weak LLCC, and a 200-mb analysis indicated good
  diffluence aloft and moderate vertical shear associated with an upper-
  level ridge extending along latitude 12N.  On the 20th the disturbance
  was relocated northwestward to a point about 110 nm north of Pohnpei.
  A surface analysis and satellite imagery revealed a surge in the cross-
  equatorial southwesterlies south of the region.

     Again, as was the case with Phanfone, I am missing a STWO (21 August)
  which would shed some light on the history of the pre-Rusa disturbance.
  On the 22nd what I believe to be the same disturbance was located about
  210 nm north-northeast of Eniwetok.  (There is a slight amount of
  uncertainty as to whether this is the same system of 20 August since
  there was another disturbance on the 22nd located farther west, but the
  easternmost one is closer to the position of the original disturbance on
  the 20th.)  Animated visible imagery indicated increasing convection near
  the LLCC with good diffluence aloft due to an upper-level LOW to the east-
  northeast.  The development potential was upgraded to fair at 22/0600
  UTC, and just three hours later a TCFA was issued, upgrading the
  potential for development to good.  By this time a convective band was
  forming in the northern semicircle and beginning to wrap into the LLCC.

     JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 21W at 1200 UTC
  on 22 August, placing the center approximately 230 nm north of Eniwetok
  Atoll.  A 22/1042 UTC SSM/I pass depicted a symmetric system with
  multiple rain bands wrapping into the LLCC.  TD-21W was moving slowly
  northwestward at 5 kts, guided by a low to mid-level ridge to the north.
  An upper-level LOW northeast of the depression was enhancing outflow and
  the system steadily intensified.   At 0000 UTC on the 23rd the cyclone
  was located about 300 nm north-northwest of Eniwetok and the track had
  become more west-northwesterly--a direction that it was to maintain for
  several days.  Satellite CI estimates had reached 35 and 45 kts by 0000
  UTC, so the depression was upgraded to tropical storm status by JTWC,
  NMCC, and JMA with the latter assigning the name Rusa.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     By 1200 UTC a second upper-level LOW had developed northwest of Rusa,
  also enhancing outflow, and the storm was forecast to intensify rapidly
  over the next 48 hours.    JTWC upped the MSW to 55 kts at 1800 UTC,
  based on CI estimates of 45 and 55 kts, and both JMA and NMCC were
  estimating the 10-min avg MSW at 50 kts.    Rusa was then located
  approximately 750 nm east-northeast of Saipan.  JTWC upgraded Rusa to
  a minimal typhoon at 24/0000 UTC when the storm was located about 690 nm
  east-northeast of Saipan, moving west-northwestward at 13 kts.  However,
  the MSW remained pegged at 65 kts for 18 hours.  A 24/1130 UTC TRMM
  pass revealed that deep convection was confined to a single feeder band
  surrounding the eastern and northern quadrants.   The storm had moved
  near enough to the upper-level LOW to the northwest that it was
  inhibiting convective development in the western semicircle.  By 1800
  UTC, however, deep convection had increased near the center and CI
  estimates had risen to 65 and 77 kts.  Based on this, JTWC upped the
  MSW to 70 kts with the typhoon located roughly 560 nm east-northeast of

     Rusa moved steadily west-northwestward on 25 August at a speed of
  about 14 kts.  The upper-level LOW located to the storm's east continued
  to enhance outflow and Rusa steadily intensified.   JTWC increased the
  MSW by 5 kts on each advisory, reaching 90 kts at 1800 UTC based on CI
  estimates of 77 and 90 kts.  Also at 1800 UTC, JMA upgraded Rusa to
  typhoon status--NMCC had done so six hours earlier.  Convection had
  continued to increase near the center and microwave imagery around 1200
  UTC had revealed a small eye feature.  Rusa was centered at 1800 UTC
  approximately 410 nm east-southeast of Iwo Jima.  JTWC increased the MSW
  to 100 kts at 26/0000 UTC and to the peak intensity of 115 kts six hours
  later as satellite intensity estimates had reached 115 kts.   Satellite
  imagery revealed a 6-nm diameter eye surrounded by deep convection.
  Gales reached outward up to 140 nm in the northern semicircle and from
  100-120 nm to the south while the radius of storm-force winds was
  estimated at 60-70 nm.   The mid-level subtropical ridge to the north
  continued to build westward and Rusa marched steadily west-northwestward
  at around 10-12 kts.

     JTWC maintained the peak intensity of 115 kts for 24 hours.  NMCC's
  and JMA's estimated peak 10-min avg MSW values for Rusa were 90 kts and
  80 kts, respectively, and the minimum CP estimated by JMA was 950 mb.
  Interestingly, JMA later reported the intensity of Rusa at 80 kts when
  JWTC's estimated 1-min avg MSW was only 85 kts.  The typhoon's center
  passed about 64 nm south of the southwestern tip of Iwo Jima during the
  afternoon of 27 August (around 0245 UTC), and by 0600 UTC was located
  a little less than 70 nm southwest of the island.  Rusa weakened slightly
  on the 27th due to some dry air entrainment in the mid-levels.  The storm
  also went through an eyewall replacement cycle, as indicated by a 27/1608
  UTC TRMM pass.   The MSW was lowered to 105 kts at 0600 UTC and to 90 kts
  six hours later, but had recovered to 95 kts by 1800 UTC based on CI
  estimates of 90 and 102 kts.  At 1800 UTC Typhoon Rusa was located about
  550 nm east of Kadena AB, Okinawa, moving west-northwestward at 13 kts.

     Typhoon Rusa was moving west-northwestward at 13 kts as it crossed
  135E on 28 August with the MSW estimated at 95 kts.  At 0000 UTC it was
  located approximately 470 nm east of Kadena, Okinawa.   Animated multi-
  spectral imagery indicated a symmetric system with a 5-nm eye.  Rusa had
  undergone an eyewall replacement cycle prior to the 0000 UTC warning.
  Microwave data suggested that the system might have been forming a new
  concentric eyewall during this time.  The MSW had increased to 95 kts
  but a slow weakening occurred during the day.  However, 28/2201 UTC and
  28/2358 UTC SSM/I passes revealed that overall deep convection coverage
  had increased and that Rusa's wind field had expanded.  At 29/0600 UTC
  the latest 85 GHz image indicated that the inner eyewall had collapsed
  with a large, 120-nm diameter symmetric outer ring visible.  Typhoon Rusa
  had become an 'annular' typhoon--a term used to describe usually intense
  tropical cyclones with large diameter eyes surrounded by a fairly
  symmetric ring of deep convection with little deep convection elsewhere
  in the circulation.  Annular typhoons (or hurricanes) tend to weaken 
  slowly after reaching their peak intensity and may maintain a static
  intensity for several days.
     Rusa crossed the northern Ryukyu Islands on 28 August.  The typhoon
  then turned to the northwest as a low-pressure system moving over eastern
  Russia began to erode the ridge extending across Korea into the Sea of
  Japan.  This northward turn into the weakening ridge towards South Korea
  continued on the 30th when a SSM/I pass at 0000 UTC showed a large
  continuous ring of convection 110 nm in diameter.  The MSW was still a
  dangerous 80 kts, and Rusa only slowly weakened to minimal typhoon
  intensity by the time it made landfall in South Korea at 31/0600 UTC.
  Even at landfall Typhoon Rusa took time to wind down and was still of
  minimal tropical storm intensity at 0600 UTC on 1 September when JTWC
  issued their final warning, placing the center over the Sea of Japan
  approximately 140 nm northeast of Seoul, South Korea.  JTWC deemed the
  system extratropical at this time, and NMCC and JMA both downgraded it
  to tropical depression status and issued their final warnings.  (It
  should be mentioned that all three warning agencies were classifying
  Rusa as a 70-kt typhoon around the time of landfall in South Korea.)

  C. Meteorological Observations

     Typhoon Rusa passed very close to Amami Airport (28.4N, 129.7E) in
  the northern Ryukyu Islands.  The lowest SLP reported was 951 mb at
  29/0841 UTC and the peak sustained wind (10-min avg) recorded was 63 kts,
  with a maximum gust of 80 kts, at 29/0500 UTC.   As early as 28/2130 UTC
  the wind was northerly at 37 kts, gusting to 50 kts, and at 29/1000 UTC
  was easterly at 32 kts.    (One press report alluded to winds of 110 kts
  being reported in South Korea, but the location was not specified, nor
  was any qualifying information given such as sustained vs gusts, esti-
  mated vs recorded, etc.)

     Unfortunately, I do not have any observations from Iwo Jima during
  Rusa's passage near the island on 27 August.

     After the report on Typhoon Rusa was completed, I received some
  station reports from Huang Chunliang.  These stations are located in
  the northern Ryukyu Islands north of Okinawa.  (A special thanks to
  Chunliang for sending me the information.)  I have included some of the
  highlights of these reports below.  The MSW values are 10-min averages
  and the rainfall amounts represent two-day totals recorded on 29 and
  30 August (local time) with a couple of exceptions annotated.

  Station        Station                  Peak      Minimum      Rainfall
   Name            ID      Coordinates  MSW (kts)  Press (mb)  2-day Total

  Naze        WMO 47909   28.4N, 129.5E    32        951.9      409 mm
  Okinoerabu  WMO 47942   27.4N, 128.7E    42        971.7      136 mm
  Kikai Jima  JMA 88851   28.3N, 129.9E    51        N/A        213 mm
  Yoron Jima  JMA 88986   27.0N, 128.4E    45        N/A         16 mm **
  Koniya      JMA 88901   28.6N, 129.3E    N/A       N/A        177 mm **
  Isen        JMA 88956   27.7N, 129.0E    N/A       N/A        285 mm

  ** - These amounts are 24-hour totals for 29 August only.

  D. Damage and Casualties

     Typhoon Rusa was the deadliest typhoon to affect South Korea since
  Typhoon Sarah in 1959.   The US publication, The World Almanac, lists
  the death toll from that disastrous typhoon at over 2000 in South Korea
  and Japan.    According to the same source, Typhoon Gilda of 1974 left
  108 persons dead in Japan and South Korea.    According to reports from
  South Korea's anti-disaster center a total of 113 people were confirmed
  dead and 71 others missing as a result of Rusa's passage through the
  nation.  One of the worst affected areas was the east coast province of
  Gangwon where 128 people were killed or missing.   The actual number of
  persons confirmed dead varied among various reports--the final report
  from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
  stated that 151 persons were confirmed dead with 33 still unaccounted

     The city of Gangneung, in Gangwon, was swamped by waist-high floods
  after 914 mm of rain fell in less than two days.     (Other press
  reports quoted the amount of rainfall at various values ranging from
  about 870 mm to 900 mm.)    Typhoon Rusa accelerated an outbreak of
  conjunctivitis in South Korean schools.   A few days after the storm,
  more than 166,000 students had contracted the highly contagious viral eye
  disease.   According to the OCHA report, the total monetary estimate of
  the damage wrought by Typhoon Rusa in South Korea amounted to 5.46 
  trillion won, equivalent to $4.21 billion US dollars.

     In North Korea (DPR Korea) Typhoon Rusa was also destructive.
  Several press reports alluded to "scores of fatalities", but the OCHA
  reports and other reports on the ReliefWeb Homepage did not specifically
  mention any deaths attributed to the storm.     However, given the
  magnitude of the flooding, it seems likely that there would have been
  some loss of life.    The worst affected counties were Tongchon and
  and Kosong, where from 300 to 510 mm of rain fell within a 5-10 hour
  period on 1 September.   The situation was exacerbated by a tidal surge
  of 1.5 meters and wind gusts to 50 kts.    Agricultural losses were
  substantial with thousands of hectares flooded, and damage to the infra-
  structure was great also with roads, bridges, railway lines, electricity,
  schools, and telephone lines being affected.
     The storm's remnants moved north into Russia's Far East, bringing
  torrential rain to Sakhalin Island.    Flooding caused by the rains
  destroyed homes, washed away roads and cut power supplies for hours.
  No casualties or injuries were reported. 

     More information on the effects of Typhoon Rusa's deadly and
  destructive strike on the Korean Peninsula can be found at the following

  (Report written by Gary Padgett and Kevin Boyle)

                             TYPHOON SINLAKU
                            (TC-22W / TY 0216)
                         28 August - 8 September

  Sinlaku: contributed by the Federated States of Micronesia, is the name
           of a legendary Kosrae goddess

  A. Storm Origins

     Typhoon Sinlaku formed less than a week after and in the same general
  area as Typhoon Rusa.    Like the earlier storm, Sinlaku was also a
  "straight-shooter", following a fairly straight course for several days.
  Whereas Rusa had followed a long west-northwest trajectory which took
  it between Okinawa and Japan and later curving northward toward its
  destructive rendezvous with South Korea, Sinlaku's track was more west-
  ward and to the south of Rusa's, taking it over Okinawa, and after a
  few wobbles, into Fujian Province, China.   JTWC issued a special STWO
  at 2100 UTC on 26 August, noting that an area of convection had formed
  and persisted approximately 630 nm east-northeast of Saipan.  A LLCC
  was present with cycling deep convection, and a 200-mb analysis indicated
  good diffluence aloft and weak to moderate vertical shear, hence, the
  development potential was assessed as fair.

     By 27/0600 UTC the system was located about 590 nm east-northeast of
  Saipan with a fully-exposed LLCC accompanied by cycling deep convection.
  A SSM/I pass at 27/2324 UTC showed some curvature in the convection south
  of the center, but it had not yet begun to wrap into the LLCC.  By 1000
  UTC on the 28th, however, a convective band was beginning to curve into
  the center and deep convection in general was increasing.  Vertical shear
  was still moderate, but the potential for development was upgraded to
  good and a TCFA was issued, placing the center approximately 540 nm
  east of Saipan.  Also, at 1200 UTC, JMA classified the system as a
  30-kt tropical depression.

     The first JTWC warning on Tropical Depression 22W was issued at 1800
  UTC on 28 August.  The center was located approximately 510 nm east of
  Saipan with the MSW estimated at 25 kts.  A TRMM pass at 28/1518 UTC
  had indicated increasing organization in the lower levels with deep
  convection increasing, particularly in the southern semicircle where
  spiral bands appeared to be forming.  Satellite intensity estimates had
  reached 30 and 35 kts by 29/0000 UTC, so the MSW was increased to 30 kts.
  The LLCC was partially-exposed with deep convection primarily in the
  eastern semicircle.   By 0600 UTC, CI estimates were 35 kts, so the
  depression was upgraded to a tropical storm, located about 850 nm east-
  southeast of Iwo Jima.   NMCC and JMA also both upgraded the system to
  tropical storm status at 0600 UTC with JMA naming the cyclone Sinlaku.
  Tropical Storm Sinlaku generally moved slowly northward initially,
  tracking into a weakness in the subtropical ridge which had resulted
  from a TUTT penetrating the ridge.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     The MSW was increased to 45 kts at 29/1200 UTC.  The JTWC warning
  noted that microwave imagery had clearly indicated a developing banding
  eye feature.  At 1800 UTC Sinlaku was located about 790 nm east-southeast
  of Iwo Jima, moving north-northwestward at 8 kts.   The storm's motion
  gradually shifted more to the west-northwest on 30 August as the TUTT
  filled and drifted northeastward and the ridge strengthened.   JTWC upped
  the MSW to 55 kts at 30/0000 UTC, and at 1200 UTC the storm was upgraded
  to a 70-kt typhoon, based on CI estimates of 65 and 77 kts.  (JMA and
  NMCC were estimating the 10-min avg MSW at 55 kts.)  At 1800 UTC Typhoon
  Sinlaku was located approximately 580 nm east of Iwo Jima, tracking west-
  northwestward at 11 kts.  JTWC upped the MSW to 80 kts while NMCC and JMA
  increased the estimated 10-min avg MSW to 60 kts.

     Sinlaku's track became increasingly westerly on 31 August as the ridge
  to the north strengthened.    By 1800 UTC the typhoon was approximately
  350 nm east of Iwo Jima and moving westward at 8 kts.  JMA and NMCC
  upgraded Sinlaku to typhoon status at 31/0000 UTC, and JTWC upped the
  MSW to an initial peak of 110 kts at 0600 UTC, based on CI estimates of
  90 and 115 kts.   The intensity was lowered slightly to 105 kts at
  1800 UTC based on a weakening trend in deep convection.  Convection had
  started to make a comeback, however, by 0000 UTC on 1 September, and at
  0600 UTC Typhoon Sinlaku reached its peak intensity of 115 kts, based
  on CI estimates of 102 and 115 kts.  JMA's and NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW
  estimates were 80 and 100 kts, respectively, and the minimum CP estimated
  by JMA was 950 mb.  At Sinlaku's peak gales extended outward from the
  center 160 nm in the southern semicircle and from 180 to 200 nm to the
  north.  The radius of 50-kt winds was estimated at 75 nm.  A 01/1200 UTC
  SSM/I pass indicated that the typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replace-
  ment cycle.

     By 1800 UTC satellite intensity estimates had come down to 90 and
  102 kts and JTWC reduced the MSW to 105 kts.  The typhoon was centered at
  that time about 100 nm east-southeast of Iwo Jima, moving westward at
  11 kts along the mid-level subtropical ridge.  The center of Typhoon
  Sinlaku passed about 29 nm south of the southwestern tip of Iwo Jima
  around 0215 UTC on 2 September.  The storm was slowly weakening at this
  time--possibly due to the eyewall replacement cycle noted above, and also
  due to its passage over cooler SSTs left in the wake of previous typhoons
  which had moved through the area.     A SSM/I pass at 01/2107 UTC had
  indicated concentric eyewalls, and the intensity was reduced to 100 kts
  at 0000 UTC based on CI estimates of 102 kts.   The MSW was further
  lowered to 95 kts at 0600 UTC and to 90 kts at 1200 UTC, based on CI
  estimates of 77 and 90 kts.   Deep convection had weakened in the north-
  west quadrant, and a 02/1020 UTC SSM/I pass suggested that the eye had
  reformed with a diameter of 65 nm.  Typhoon Sinlaku at 1200 UTC was
  located approximately 610 nm east of Kadena AB, Okinawa, moving westward
  at 13 kts.

     The MSW had fallen steadily to 90 kts (CI 5.0) by 0000 UTC,
  3 September, and the CP had leveled out at 955 mb.   Typhoon Sinlaku,
  then located 465 nm east of Kadena, Okinawa, was moving westward at
  14 kts along the southern periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge
  centered near 35N, 149E.    Its passage over warmer SSTs resulted in
  increased deep convection near the center.  However, dry air entrainment
  from the west counteracted further strengthening and the MSW increased
  only slightly to 95 kts at 1800 UTC, 4 September.   At 1200 UTC the eye
  (50 nm in diameter) of Sinlaku began to cross Okinawa as observed by
  radar and satellite imagery.    Winds of 63 kts gusting to 99 kts were
  reported just before eye passage.  Kadena AB reported a MSW of 50 kts
  (1-min avg), gusting to 70 kts, as the eastern edge of the eye passed.
  A peak gust of 103 kts was recorded at approximately 04/2130 UTC.  (More
  observations follow below.)

     The overall intensity of Sinlaku remained constant at 90 kts (CI 5.0)
  through 5 September.  A SSM/I pass at 1119 UTC indicated that the deep
  convection was in the northern quadrants, and that the southern eyewall
  was weakening.  During this time a longwave trough was moving northward
  of the cyclone.  The longwave trough intensified, slowing the forward
  speed of Sinlaku to 4 kts.  High-pressure building from eastern China
  followed in the wake of the trough, pushing Typhoon Sinlaku on a west-
  southwestward track.  The cyclone was now on a steady weakening trend,
  and a 05/2153 UTC SSM/I pass indicated that convection in the eyewall
  had weakened.  The storm had turned to a temporary northwestward heading
  by 07/0000 UTC, likely caused by a weakness in the ridge created by a
  major shortwave trough over the Sea of Japan.

     At 0000 UTC, 7 September, Sinlaku was centered 140 nm east of Fujian
  Province in China.  The typhoon continued to track westward once more
  and moved over the east coast of China near Wenzhou City close to the
  Zhejiang-Fujian border around 1030 UTC on 7 September with the MSW esti-
  mated at 70 kts.   The tropical cyclone weakened rapidly as it moved
  farther inland.  HKO and CWBT issued their final bulletins at 2100 UTC.
  JTWC ceased warning on the system at 08/0000 UTC while NMCC issued the
  final warning at 1200 UTC on 8 September.  Despite moving inland over
  the mountainous terrain of China, the weakening Sinlaku maintained a
  very well-defined circular cloud pattern on satellite images for the
  next few days.  (Note: At the time of landfall, JMA and JTWC were
  estimating the intensity at 70 kts, whereas NMCC's reported 10-min avg
  MSW was 80 kts.   HKO's and CWBT's estimates at the time were 80 kts
  and 75 kts, respectively.)

  C. Meteorological Observations

  (1) Iwo Jima

     The center of Typhoon Sinlaku passed about 29 nm south of the south-
  western tip of Iwo Jima around 0215 UTC on 2 September.  As early as
  01/2100 UTC winds were northerly at 40 kts.  By 0102 UTC on 2 September
  the sustained wind (10-min avg) was northeasterly 60 kts, gusting to
  91 kts.   The maximum sustained wind was 71 kts at 0238 UTC, while the
  peak gusts recorded were 99 kts at 0238 and 0320 UTC.   As late as
  02/0500 UTC the wind was east-southeasterly at 55 kts, gusting to
  76 kts.  The minimum SLP recorded was 976 mb from 0200 through 0300 UTC.

  (2) Wind Observations from Okinawa

     As noted above the large eye of Typhoon Sinlaku passed over the
  island of Okinawa on 4 September, beginning around 1200 UTC.  At
  Kadena AB winds had increased to gale force by 04/0755 UTC when
  they were north-northwesterly at 36 kts, gusting to 52 kts.  The peak
  winds before eye passage were 63 kts (1-min avg) at 1122 UTC with
  a gust of 99 kts.  The minimum SLP measured in the eye was 954.8 mb
  at 04/1555 UTC.  As the eastern eyewall passed over the station, the
  sustained wind reached a peak of 51 kts at 2321 UTC, gusting to 79 kts.
  However, gusts to 89 kts were recorded at 2144 and 2258 UTC, and the
  peak gust of 103 kts occurred at approximately 2130 UTC (this from the
  JTWC 05/0000 UTC warning).  Sustained winds had dropped below gale
  force by around 05/0400 UTC but were still gusting to 35 kts at 0835
  UTC when the data record ends.

     At the Naha Airport the winds were north-northwesterly at 39 kts,
  gusting to 50 kts, by 04/0600 UTC.  The peak sustained wind prior to
  eye passage was 69 kts (10-min avg) at 04/1200 UTC with a maximum gust
  of 89 kts.  After the eye the 10-min mean wind reached a peak of 67 kts
  at 04/2137 UTC with the highest gust of 90 kts recorded at 2200 UTC.
  As late at 05/0800 UTC the wind was southerly 41 kts, gusting to
  56 kts.  The SLP was 954 mb from 1400 UTC through 1700 UTC.

     (A special thanks to Roger Edson for sending me the observations
  from Iwo Jima and Okinawa.  The sustained winds from Iwo Jima and
  Naha Airport are based on a 10-min averaging period while the Kadena
  AB winds represent a 1-min average.)

  (3) Rainfall Reports from Okinawa

     After the report on Typhoon Sinlaku was completed, I received some
  additional station reports from Okinawa from Huang Chunliang.  Since
  the winds recorded on Okinawa have been covered rather well in the above
  section, I'm only including rainfall reports here.     The strongest 
  winds noted in any of the material from Chunliang were 66 kts sustained
  (10-min avg) from JMA station 91011.   The rainfall amounts (with one
  exception, which is annotated) represent two-day totals recorded on
  4 and 5 September, local time.

  Station     JMA Station      WMO                            Rainfall
   Name          Code          Code        Coordinates       2-day Total

  Izena          91011         N/A        26.9N, 127.9E         190 mm
  Oku            91021         N/A        26.8N, 128.3E         452 mm
  Higashi        91081         N/A        26.6N, 128.2E         288 mm
  Nago           N/A           47940      28.6N, 128.0E         342 mm
  Goya           91161         N/A        26.3N, 127.8E         348 mm
  Naha           N/A           47936      26.2N, 127.7E         382 mm
  Yoron Jima     88986         N/A        27.0N, 128.4E         315 mm
  Miyakojima     N/A           47927      24.8N, 125.3E         263 mm **
  Kin            91126         N/A        26.5N, 127.9E         234 mm
  Itokazu        91241         N/A        26.2N, 127.8E         222 mm

  ** - The amount from Miyakojima was a 24-hour total for 6 September

  (4) Rainfall Reports from China

     Ten stations in Zhejiang recorded twelve-hour (0000-1200 UTC)
  rainfall amounts exceeding 100 mm.  Reports include:  Wenling - 140 mm,
  Ruian - 139 mm, Dachen Dao - 133 mm, Dongtou - 131 mm, Leqing - 120 mm,
  Yuhuan - 120 mm, Pingyang - 112 mm, Taishun - 108 mm, Yongjia - 106 mm,
  and Wenzhou - 104 mm.   Over the 24-hour period from 07/0000 to 08/0000
  UTC:  Wenzhou - 215.4 mm, Pingyang - 193.6 mm, Ruian - 191.1 mm,
  Wenling - 176.2 mm, and Taishun - 156.4 mm.

     In Ningde, Fujian Province, Zherong and Fuding stations reported
  173 mm and 171 mm, respectively, during the period 07/0400-07/1500 UTC.

     During the period 04/1600 to 07/1200 UTC rainfall amounts on Taiwan
  varied from CEIETUAN, Ilan County - 387 mm; FU SHAN, Taipei County -
  381 mm; YU-FENG, Hsinchu County - 358 mm; YANMINSHAN - 372 mm; KAO JI,
  Taoyuan County - 303 mm; KUAN WU, Miaoli County - 213 mm; and TIEN-MU,
  Taipei City - 199 mm.

  (5) Wind Observations from China

     Wind observations from Zhengjiang Province include:

  During the period from 07/0400-07/0500 UTC, Nanji Dao, Pingyang County,
  Wenzhou City recorded a peak gust of 110 kts--the highest recorded since
  weather records began.  Two other stations in Zhejiang, Dongtou and
  Leqing, reported gusts of 83 kts and 74 kts, respectively.  Other peak
  gust reports include:  Yuhuan - 89 kts, Kanmen - 87 kts, Dachen Dao -
  82 kts, Dongtou - 78 kts, Wenling - 64 kts, and Shipu - 62 kts.  Also,
  Kanmen, a fishing harbor in Yuhuan County, recorded a gust of 90 kts at
  07/0502 UTC.

     Wind observations from Fujian Province include:

  Fuzhou and Ningde Cities reported gusts exceeded gale force.  Shacheng,
  Fuding City (just south of the easternmost end of the Fujian-Zhejiang
  boundary), recorded a gust of 64 kts while the peak gust in Fuzhou was
  37 kts.  According to another report, Fuding recorded a peak gust of
  68 kts at 07/1200 UTC.  (Note:  Fuding is a sub-city of Ningde City.)

     (A special thanks to Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City for sending the
  Chinese observations, as well as most of the following information on
  damage and casualties.)

  D. Damage and Casualties

     Thirty-two people were reported to have died as a result of Typhoon
  Sinlaku.  The storm made landfall on the Fujian-Zhejiang border at
  1030 UTC, 7 September.  Most of the deaths occurred in Zhejiang Province
  (there was only one reported dead in Fujian).  There were no reports of
  casualties on Taiwan.

     Over 8,200,000 residents were affected by the typhoon in Zhejiang.
  Some 470,000 residents had been evacuated to safer areas in the province
  before the arrival of the storm.  The number of collapsed houses exceeded
  23,000.  Direct economic losses there were estimated at 3.31896 billion

     Approximately 2,210,000 residents were affected by the typhoon in
  Fujian.  Some 170,000 residents had been evacuated to safer areas in the
  province before the arrival of the storm.  In Fujian Province 35,000
  houses were destroyed.  Direct economic losses there were estimated at
  2.559 billion yuan.  (In the provincal capital, Fuzhou City, 93,500
  residents were affected by the storm with 61 homes collapsed.  Direct
  economic losses to Fuzhou City were estimated at 158.36 million yuan.)

     Also, at around 07/0500 UTC, the typhoon sank a 6484-ton Korean
  freighter coded "Pioneer", which was located at 26.20N, 120.62E at
  the time.  Drifting on the sea for a day, seven persons on board were
  rescued by a fishing boat (numbered 0567) of Lianjiang County, Fuzhou
  City.  The other eight were still missing as of the date of the report
  (10 September).

     Sinlaku crossed Okinawa on 4 September, injuring at least 29 people
  with five reported missing.  There were no other reports of casualties.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett and Kevin Boyle with significant
  contributions by Huang Chunliang)


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for August:  No tropical cyclones


                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:

       (a) FTP to: []
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           August as an example:   aug02.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  aug02.sum, for

    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua and Michael Pitt):>> OR>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
  well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  John Wallace  (Northeast Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Western Gulf
                 of Mexico)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]


Document: summ0208.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006

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